Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. (turf, outdoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m., ET (FOX)
Spread: Bills by 3
Forecast: 40 degrees, rain likely
Records: Bills (5-7, AFC East 1-3); Rams (5-6-1, NFC West 4-0-1)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Sept. 28, 2008: Bills 31, Rams 14; Nov. 21, 2004: Bills 37, Rams 17. Series record: Bills lead, 6-4
What matters: Can the Bills string back-to-back wins together? Will they stick with the running game? Buffalo put together a solid all-around effort in its Week 13 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. But the Bills have had trouble stringing wins together this season, evidenced by their 5-7 record. If the Bills can top the Rams, their slim playoff chances could live on for another week. Their best bet is to stick with the running game, which was the biggest reason for their success against the Jaguars. The Bills had 46 rushes for 232 yards in the 34-18 victory, with Fred Jackson topping the 100-yard mark for the first time this season (109 yards on 25 attempts). With rain expected, this could be a big game for Jackson and RB C.J. Spiller.
Who matters: OL Sam Young and David Snow, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, DE Mario Williams. The Bills will have two offensive linemen making their first career starts on Sunday in Young and Snow. It remains to be seen whether Snow will play at C or RG; the Bills could shift RG Kraig Urbik to center to replace Eric Wood (knee). On Friday, Gailey said he had made a decision regarding the offensive line but declined to share that decision with the media. They won’t have an easy task against the impressive St. Louis defensive line. Fitzpatrick had managed the game well against Jacksonville (9 of 17, 112 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but his accuracy issues remain a concern. Williams has been on a tear in recent weeks with six sacks in the last five games. He had a critical sack/forced fumble against the Jaguars that swung the momentum in Buffalo’s favor. The Rams have had some issues along the offensive line this season, which should give Williams more opportunities to make an impact.
Key matchups: Young vs. Rams DE Chris Long, WR Stevie Johnson vs. Rams CB Janoris Jenkins, Buffalo’s front seven against Rams RB Steven Jackson. Young has quite the assignment in his first NFL start going against Chris Long. The Rams DE is a tremendous pass rusher and is a mismatch against Young. Johnson has been dealing with a left hamstring injury but is known for playing through pain. He’ll have a difficult task against Jenkins, who has been a play-maker for the Rams as a rookie. Jenkins has made several big plays this season (3 INTs, with two of those returned for touchdowns); Johnson needs to bring his “A” game and Fitzpatrick will need to be extra careful when he throws near Jenkins. Jackson had a slow start to the year for the Rams but has picked it up as the season has progressed. After spending much of the year near the bottom of the league against the run, Buffalo’s front seven has been much improved against the run over the last month. Jackson presents a good test.
Injuries of note: Wood (knee) and Hairston (ankle) are out. Johnson (hamstring) is listed as questionable, but it would be a surprise if he didn’t play. He’s a gamer. WR Donald Jones (calf) had a good week, according to Gailey, and he is expected to return after missing last week’s game. CB Aaron Williams (knee) is making progress but doesn’t appear ready to return just yet. CB Leodis McKelvin (back) will return.
Inside stuff: With Wood possibly out for the remainder of the season, look for LG Andy Levitre to serve as the team’s de facto leader on the offensive line. Levitre has been one of the team’s most reliable players since being chosen in the second round of the 2009 draft, starting all 60 games played.
Connections: Rams LB Mario Haggan spent four seasons with the Bills (2003-07).
Stat you should know: Buffalo’s run defense ranked near the bottom of the league for the first half of the season, but the Bills have been stout against the run ever since then. Since Week 10, opposing teams have averaged 3.1 yards per rush against the Bills -- the lowest average in the league over that span of time.
Record watch: TE Scott Chandler is one touchdown away from establishing a new franchise record for TDs by a TE in a single season (7).
Looking ahead: With a win, the Bills would improve to 6-7 with winnable games against Seattle, Miami and the New York Jets to finish the season. Buffalo needs losses from both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to help keep their slim playoff hopes alive, but that looks unlikely given those teams’ remaining schedules.
Prediction: Rams 20, Bills 16
For more updates on the Bills, follow correspondent Mark Ludwiczak on Twitter @CBSBills and @MarkLud12.
