Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans -- Week 9
Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston, Texas (grass, retractable roof)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m., ET (CBS)
Spread: Texans by 10
Records: Bills (Overall: 3-4, AFC East: 0-2); Texans (Overall: 6-1, AFC South: 2-0)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- November 1, 2009: Texans 31, Bills 10; Nov. 19, 2006: Bills 24, Texans 21. Series record: Bills hold a 3-2 edge.
What matters: What happens when you put one of the best running backs in the league against the worst run defense against the NFL? A 10-point spread, that’s what. The Bills have been crushed in the run game time and time again this year, and it’s hard to see Sunday’s game being any different. Houston's Arian Foster (659 yards and 9 TDs on 168 attempts, a 3.9 average) has been at the top of his game and poses an instant mismatch for the woeful Bills defense. The Bills have said that they know what to expect from the Texans -- a healthy dose of Foster in stretch plays and cutbacks -- but they’ll need a Herculean effort to have any success against the run.
Who matters: MLB Kelvin Sheppard, DT Marcell Dareus, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. If the Bills are going to contain Foster, they need Sheppard and Dareus to have their best games of the season. Sheppard is supposed to be the playmaker in the middle of Buffalo’s 4-3 scheme, but he’s been average at best through seven games (35 tackles, one sack). Dareus, the third overall pick in the draft one year ago, has been unable to build upon his stellar rookie season. He has 13 tackles and two sacks so far this year. Dareus has won less battles along the line of scrimmage and teams have been successful at sealing him off in the run game. He needs to be better. Fitzpatrick is coming off his best game of the year, but even that comes with an asterisk. He threw for 225 yards and three TDs against the Titans in Week 7, but also threw a late interception that led directly to Tennessee’s game-winning score. He also needs to be more consistent.
Key matchups: Foster vs. Buffalo’s run defense. Bills DE Mario Williams vs. Texans OT Derek Newton, Texans WR Andre Johnson vs. Bills CB Stephon Gilmore. Foster looks like the key to the game for both teams. Williams is making his return to Houston after an underwhelming start to his Bills career (16 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and is coming off left wrist surgery, which he had during the team’s Week 8 bye. Williams has said that he feels better than ever after being limited due to the wrist injury. Can he make an impact against his former team? Newton is a former seventh-round pick making just his eighth career start. Williams better take advantage or his criticism will just grow louder and louder. Gilmore, Buffalo’s first-round pick in April, has quite the assignment in Johnson. Johnson (34 receptions for 444 yards, 2 TDs) remains one of the most dangerous WRs in the league and presents a major challenge due to his combination of size and speed. Gilmore will be counting on Williams and the rest of Buffalo’s front four to generate a pass rush in order to stick with the WR.
Injuries of note: DE Mark Anderson (knee) is out. LT Cordy Glenn (high ankle sprain) and RG Kraig Urbik (ankle) are both expected to return. RT Erik Pears (hip/groin) and CB Terrence McGee (knee) are doubtful. G Chad Rinehart (ankle) is out.
Inside stuff: Before Buffalo’s Week 8 bye, the Bills rotated RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller every two series and gave them roughly a 50-50 split with touches. Coach Chan Gailey said on Wednesday that plan “changes week to week,” which could frustrate Fantasy owners. Spiller has been the more explosive of the two since both returned to full health, but Jackson remains a reliable threat (3.7 yards per carry).
Connections: Williams spent the first six years of his career in Houston after being selected by the Texans with the first overall pick in 2006. He holds Texans franchise records in career sacks (53), forced fumbles (11) and sacks in a single season (14 in 2007). Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips was Buffalo’s head coach from 1998-2000. He posted a 29-19 record in Buffalo and made the playoffs in two of his three seasons -- in fact, Buffalo’s last postseason berth (2000) came under his watch.
Stat you should know: The Bills and Texans are among the top six teams in the league in rushing; Buffalo is third (150.3 yards per game) and the Texans are sixth (140.9 yards per game). The Bills have the worst run defense in the entire league, however (176.9 yards per game) while the Texans are fourth against the run (83 yards per game).
Record watch: Fred Jackson needs nine rushing yards to become the fourth Bills RB to reach 4,000 yards in a career.
Looking ahead: The Bills are in the midst of a brutal two-game stretch and head back on the road against New England in Week 10. After that, Buffalo has a home game against the resurgent Miami Dolphins.
Prediction: Texans 34, Bills 13
For more updates on the Bills, follow correspondent Mark Ludwiczak on Twitter @CBSBills and @MarkLud12.
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