Bills vs. Jaguars odds, prediction, time: NFL picks, Monday Night Football bets from model on 41-22-roll

SportsLine's model simulated Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football 10,000 times

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 22, 2024 at 8:55 pm ET • 3 min read

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The Buffalo Bills will try to move to 3-0 and keep the Jacksonville Jaguars winless when they meet in a key AFC matchup on the first of two Monday Night Football games. Buffalo is coming off a 31-10 thrashing of the Miami Dolphins, while Jacksonville dropped an 18-13 decision to the Cleveland Browns last Sunday. The Jaguars, who tied with the Indianapolis Colts for second in the AFC South at 9-8 a year ago, were 5-3 on the road. The Bills, who won the AFC East for the fourth year in a row, were 11-6 overall and 7-2 at home.

Kickoff from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Bills are 5.5-point favorites in the latest Jaguars vs. Bills odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. Before making any Bills vs. Jaguars picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Jaguars vs. Bills and just locked in its picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and NFL betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for Bills vs. Jaguars:

Jaguars vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -5.5
Jaguars vs. Bills over-under: 45.5 points
Jaguars vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -249, Jacksonville +203
JAC: Jaguars have covered the third-quarter spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 units)
BUF: Bills have hit the third-quarter money line in 11 of their last 19 games
Jaguars vs. Bills picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why you should back the Bills

Quarterback Josh Allen has been on fire to start the year. He has completed 31 of 42 passes (73.8%) for 371 yards and three touchdowns for a 124.2 rating. He has also rushed 11 times for 41 yards (3.7 average) and two TDs. Allen is in his seventh season with the Bills after being drafted in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He has thrown for 4,000 yards in each of the past four seasons and has not thrown fewer than 29 touchdowns in that span.

Running back James Cook powers Buffalo's rushing attack. The third-year veteran has carried 30 times for 149 yards (5.0 average) and two touchdowns this season. He has one explosive play for 49 yards and has converted eight first downs. Cook is also a valuable option in the passing game and has four receptions for 49 yards (12.3 average) and a score. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Jaguars

Fourth-year veteran quarterback Trevor Lawrence has thrown for over 4,000 yards the last two seasons, but is off to a bit of a slow start this year. In two games, Lawrence has completed just 26 of 51 passes (51%) for 382 yards. He has also rushed for 53 yards on three carries, including a season-high 33-yarder. In 52 career games, Lawrence has completed 63.4% of his passes for 12,152 yards and 59 touchdowns. He has been picked off 39 times.

Lawrence's top target so far this season is first-round draft pick Brian Thomas Jr. The wide receiver leads the team with 141 yards receiving on six catches (23.5 average) and one score. He has two explosive catches of 20 or more yards, including a long of 66 yards. He has also converted five first downs. See which team to pick here.