Breaking down NFL playoff picture, plus Week 17 grades for every team and Lions-49ers picks for 'MNF'

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Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I would like to start things off by wishing a happy early new year to Colts fans, and that's mostly because they have nothing else to be happy about right now. During a wild Week 17, the Colts choked away any chance at a playoff berth by losing to the Giants.

Heading into the final week of the season, 12 of the NFL's 14 playoff spots have been clinched with one still up for grabs in each conference. We'll be breaking down the playoff picture in today's newsletter, plus we'll be handing out weekly grades (Spoiler alert: The Colts got an F), and we'll be taking a look at the biggest winners from the weekend.

Also, the offseason hasn't started yet, but it kind of feels like it has, because the Jets are already interviewing head-coaching candidates. Ron Rivera and Rex Ryan are both expected to interview for the job, and you can read more about that here.

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Your New Year's resolution for 2025 should be to sign up everyone you know. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. NFL Week 17 grades: Colts choke away possible playoff berth

Every Monday, we hand out grades, so that's exactly what we're going to do right now. Here's a look at the grades from two notable games played Sunday:

Colts 45-33 over Giants (Click here for full recap)

Colts takeaway: This was an embarrassing loss for a team that had everything to play for. This stunning loss happened because Indy simply made too many mistakes: From two Joe Flacco interceptions to a missed field goal to a kickoff return TD by the Giants to start the second half, the mistakes just piled up. The Colts defense also gave up 304 yards passing to a QB (Drew Lock) who hadn't throw for more than 300 yards since the 2020 season. With their season on the line, the Colts choked this one away. Grade: F
Giants takeaway: This was a game that had both good news and bad news for the Giants. The good news is that Malik Nabers looks like he's going to be a star for years to come. The Giants rookie caught seven passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns to continue his electrifying season. The Giants also got a career day from Drew Lock, who totaled five touchdowns with four TD passes and a TD run. Ihmir Smith-Marsette also sparked the team with a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD to start the second half. As great as this win was, the bad news is that the Giants likely just cost themselves the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Grade: A

Vikings 27-25 over Packers (Click here for full recap)

Packers takeaway: For the second time this season against the Vikings, the Packers dug themselves into an early hole that they just couldn't get out of. The Packers fell behind 27-10 and one reason that happened is because they came up empty on two early drives into Minnesota territory (They lost a fumble on one drive and then failed on a fourth-and-2). Jordan Love struggled for the better part of three quarters, before turning it on in the fourth quarter. The biggest problem for the Packers was that their defense just couldn't slow down a Minnesota offense that put up 441 yards. The Packers are now 0-5 against the three top teams in the NFC (Vikings, Lions, Eagles), which doesn't bode well for a deep run in the playoffs. Grade: B-
Vikings takeaway: Sam Darnold might have just earned himself a new contract. The Vikings won this showdown because Darnold caught fire. The Vikings QB played nearly perfect football, throwing for 377 yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings had four receivers finish with at least 60 yards, including Justin Jefferson, who led the team with eight catches for 92 yards. Minnesota's defense held the Packers to just 112 yards in the first half, which was a big reason why the Vikings were able to jump out to what proved to be an insurmountable 27-10 lead. Thanks to this masterful performance from both Darnold and the Vikings defense, Minnesota will now have a chance to steal the NFC North and the No. 1 seed with a win over the Lions in Week 18. Grade: B+

As for the other 26 grades I handed out in Week 17, you can check those out by clicking here.

2. NFL Week 17 winners and losers: Baker Mayfield goes off against Panthers

You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers.

Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, and we're going to check out his winners below.

WINNERS

Saquon Barkley (Eagles beat Cowboys, 41-7). "On a day the Eagles lost backup quarterback Kenny Pickett to an aggravated rib injury, the Birds still rolled over the rival Cowboys, with Barkley effortlessly eclipsing 167 yards on the ground to become just the ninth player in NFL history to hit 2,000 rushing yards on the season. Now he's got a real chance to break Eric Dickerson's all-time record against his old team, the Giants, in Week 18."
Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers beat Panthers, 48-14). "The Buccaneers bet big bucks on Mayfield after his 2023 rejuvenation, and the former No. 1 overall pick has more than lived up to the new deal this year. Sunday was just a cherry on top, with Mayfield throwing as many touchdowns (5) as incompletions in a rout of the rival Panthers. While Tampa Bay's defense has been iffy this year, Mayfield has the Bucs positioned to make noise in January."
Brock Bowers (Raiders beat Saints, 25-10). "The Las Vegas Raiders may not have enjoyed what you'd call a fun 2024 season, but Bowers once again reminded silver and black faithful on Sunday they can look forward to potentially many years of rooting for one of the game's top young pass catchers. The 22-year-old had seven catches in a win over the New Orleans Saints to break Hall of Famer Mike Ditka's all-time record for rookie receiving yards at the spot."

If you want to see Cody's list of losers, be sure to click here.

3. 13 crazy stats from Week 17: Saquon Barkley and Brock Bowers both make history

Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild stats about the games that were just played.

With that in mind, here are 13 crazy stats about Week 17:

Saquon Barkley hits 2,000 yards. The Eagles running back rushed for 167 yards against the Cowboys, which puts him at 2,005 yards for the season. Barkley is now just the ninth player in NFL history and he's also just 101 yards away from topping Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105 that has stood since 1984.
Brock Bowers makes history. Brock Bowers had seven catches for 77 yards and now has 1,144 on the season. That moves him past Mike Ditka for the all-time rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end. Ditka had 1,076 yards in 1961 and that record has stood for 63 years before Bowers came along. Bowers also set the NFL record for most receptions by a rookie at any position. He now has 108, which broke Puka Nacua's record of 105 that was set last season. With nine receptions in Week 18, Bowers could set the record for most receptions by a tight end in NFL history.
Joe Burrow on historical streak. With 412 passing yards and three touchdown passes against the Broncos, Burrow now has eight straight games with at least 250 yards and three touchdowns. Not only is it an NFL record, but no other QB has even done that in seven straight games. It was also Burrow's third career game with at least 400 passing yards, three TD passes and one rushing touchdown, which is the most in NFL history (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray had all done it twice).
Giants rookies are rolling. Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. just became the third teammates in NFL history to top 1,000 yards from scrimmage as rookies. (Reggie Bush and Marques Colston for New Orleans Saints in 2006, Abner Haynes and Johnny Robinson for Dallas Texans in 1960).
Giants rookies are rolling, part II. Malik Nabers caught seven passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns, marking the 13th time this year that he's caught at least 13 passes in a game. That moves him past Anquan Bolden and Terry Glenn for the most games with five receptions or more by a rookie in NFL history.
Drew Lock joins exclusive club. With 309 passing yards, four TD passes and one rushing TD, Drew Lock became just the fifth player in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards, four touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown and a passer rating of at least 155 in a game. The only other players to pull that off are Drew Brees (2013), Ryan Fitzpatrick (2018) Aaron Rodgers (2019) and Josh Allen (2023).
Baker Mayfield sets obscure NFL record. The Buccaneers QB threw five touchdowns against the Panthers, which means he now has 39 TD passes on the season. That's the most in NFL history by any player who's with his fourth team (or more). Mayfield broke a record that had been held by Steve Beuerlein, who threw 36 touchdowns in 1999 with the Panthers.
Jim Harbaugh makes history. The Chargers clinched a playoff win with a 40-7 win over the Patriots on Saturday, which makes Harbaugh the first head coach in the Super Bowl era to lead multiple teams to the playoffs in his first season after taking over a team that was coming off a losing season (He led the 49ers to the playoffs in 2011 with San Fran coming off a 6-10 season in 2010).
Sam Darnold needed a change of scenery. With the Vikings at 14-2, that means Darnold has now set the NFL record for most wins by a quarterback in his first year with a new team. With 35 touchdown passes, Darnold also has the fourth-most TD passes by any QB in his first season with a new team (Matthew Stafford holds the record when he threw 41 with the Rams in 2021).
Ameer Abdullah finally hits the century mark. The Raiders running back rushed for 115 yards against the Saints, marking the first time in his career that he's hit the 100-yard mark. It took him 141 games, which was the second-longest drought to begin a career for someone who eventually rushed for 100 yards. The longest drought was 142 games, a record that was set by Zach Crockett, who also had his first 100-yard game with the Raiders.
Don't bet on the Titans. Not only did the Titans lose to the Jaguars on Sunday, but they also failed to cover. That means the Titans are now 2-14 against the spread on the season, which is the worst ATS mark by any team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
Aaron Rodgers has been sacked more than anyone. Aaron Rodgers was sacked four times by the Bills and now has been sacked 568 times in his career, which is the most in NFL history. The previous record was held by Tom Brady, who was sacked 565 times during his 23-year career. Russell Wilson could eventually break Rodgers' record, and you can read more about that here.
Jayden Daniels breaks rookie record. The Commanders QB rushed for 127 yards and now has 864 on the season, which is a new record for rushing yards by a rookie QB. The old mark was held by Robert Griffin III, who rushed for 815 yards in 2012.

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.

4. NFL Week 17 overreactions: Should Eagles let Saquon Barkley go for the rushing record?

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 17 to decide if we're all overreacting.

Statement: Eagles should let Saquon Barkley go for Eric Dickerson's record in meaningless game.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Barkley is just 101 yards away from passing Dickerson's single-season rushing record and has a game to play. The issue? The Eagles have nothing to play for in Week 18 with the NFC East title and the No. 2 seed clinched, and are eliminated from the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. ... Getting 2,000 yards in 16 games is a tremendous accomplishment, but a memorable first season in Philadelphia would be capped if the Eagles allow Barkley the opportunity to pass Dickerson. And Barkley could do it against his old team: the Giants."

Statement: Chiefs should let Broncos win to keep Bengals out of playoffs.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "The Chiefs don't have to play their starters in Week 18 since they have home-field advantage locked up. Andy Reid can do whatever he likes, even if his team won't have to play a meaningful game in 24 days. ... The Chiefs aren't scared of the Bengals, but who could blame them if they let the Broncos win and rest their starters for Week 18. They earned that right."

Statement: Packers are the most overrated team in the NFC.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "With their loss to Minnesota, the Packers fell to 0-5 against the Vikings, Lions and Eagles this season -- the three teams that have a better record than them in the NFC. ... Green Bay is a good team, but the goose egg in the win column makes them overrated. However, they can change that narrative in the playoffs."

There are plenty more overreactions from Week 17, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Lions at 49ers

There is only one Monday night game left in the regular season and that will be going down tonight with the 49ers hosting the Lions. The twist in this game is that the Lions don't really have anything to play for. They'll be facing the Vikings in Week 18 with the NFC North title and the top seed in the NFC on the line and nothing that happens tonight will impact that.

Dan Campbell has said that he's going to play his starters, but that seems slightly crazy, even by Campbell standards. The Lions are already beat up and Campbell would definitely take a lot of heat if any key player goes down with an injury tonight in a most meaningless game. Also, if the starters play, that means the Lions will be coming off a short week before facing the Vikings in a game with everything on the line.

The only reason this game isn't completely meaningless is because if the Lions win, that will give them No. 1 seed in the event that the Detroit-Minnesota game ends in a tie.

So will the Lions play their starters tonight? Only Campbell knows the answer to that. He'd probably love to get revenge on the 49ers for their win in last year's NFC title game, so it's certainly possible that he'll play his starters.

With that in mind, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

Why the Lions can win: If you can run the ball on the 49ers, then you can beat them. The 49ers are 0-7 this year when they surrender 115 yards or more on the ground and the Lions can certainly hit that number. The Lions are averaging 143.9 rushing yards per game this year, which ranks sixth in the NFL. After David Montgomery went down, there was some question about whether Jahmyr Gibbs could handle a full load and he proved that he could in Week 16 by carrying the ball 23 times for 109 yards. If Gibbs gets going on the ground, the Lions will be in good shape to win (as long as their starters are playing).
Why the 49ers can win: With so many injuries this season, every 49ers game seems to come down to whether Brock Purdy plays well. The 49ers are 4-1 this season when he has a QB rating of 105 or higher, but they're just 2-7 when it's under 105. The 49ers won't have left tackle Trent Williams, which could create some issues, but Purdy will have Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings and Isaac Guerendo. If Purdy has time to make use of those weapons, the 49ers could end up winning this game.

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the games, here are a couple of props I like:

ONE PROP I LIKE FROM: Brock Purdy longest run OVER 9.5 yards (-125 at BetMGM): When things break down on offense, Purdy has shown that he'll take off, and when he does that, he usually gains his yardage in big chunks. In his last eight games, Purdy has gone over this number seven times and I won't be surprised if we see him do it again tonight.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Jake Moody OVER 6.5 points (-110 at BetMGM): I think the Lions are going to play their starters, but I can't be sure, so I have no idea what their offense is going to look like, which means I don't know how much action Jake Bates is going to see tonight. With that in mind, I know the 49ers will be going all out, so I expect them to put up some points, which means Moody should see plenty of action in the game.

And in case you're wondering, my props are now 44-31 on the season (21-14 on kicker props and 23-17 on all other props).

The guys over at SportsLine also have a full betting preview that you can check out here.

Of course, we also have some picks for tonight, so let's get to those.

LIONS-49ERS PICKS
My pick: Lions 34-20 over 49ers
Dubin's pick: Lions 33-23 over 49ers
Prisco's pick: 49ers 30-29 over Lions

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, seven of our eight NFL experts are taking the Lions to win and cover as a 3.5-point road favorite.

The Lions are favored to win, but let me just say, this one of the most unpredictable games of the season since no one knows what Detroit is going to look like tonight. For that alone, it will be worth tuning in.

6. NFL playoff picture heading into Monday night

We usually wait until Tuesday to break down the playoff picture, but we're going one day early this week because there's a lot to cover. There are only 17 games left in the regular season and that number will be going down by one after the Lions face the 49ers tonight.

Here's a look at the top seven teams from each conference:

AFC
1. Chiefs (Clinched AFC West): 15-1
2. Bills (Clinched AFC East): 13-3
3. Ravens (AFC North leader): 11-5
4. Texans (Clinched AFC South): 9-7
5. Steelers: 10-6
6. Chargers: 10-6
7. Broncos: 9-7
First teams out: Dolphins (8-8), Bengals (8-8)
Clinched division and playoff spot: Chiefs (Clinched No. 1 seed), Bills (Clinched No. 2 seed), Texans (Clinched No. 4 seed)
Clinched playoff spot: Steelers, Ravens, Chargers

AFC Breakdown

AFC's final playoff spot is up for grabs. The Broncos had a chance to clinch the AFC's final playoff spot over the weekend, but they came up short in a wild overtime loss to the Bengals on Saturday. That means the race for the final spot is now down to the Bengals, Broncos and Dolphins. The Broncos can clinch the final playoff spot with a win over the Chiefs in Week 18.
The two long shots. The Bengals and Dolphins are longshots to make the playoffs, but they're not dead. The Dolphins will get in if they beat the Jets in Week 18 and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs. As for the Bengals, they'll get in if they beat the Steelers in Week 18 combined with the Dolphins and Broncos BOTH losing.
The AFC North is also up for grabs. The Ravens close the season with the Browns while the Steelers will be facing the Bengals. The Ravens will clinch the division with a win, but if they slip up in Week 18, then the Steelers could win the division by beating Cincinnati. Even if the Ravens win, the Steelers will still have something to play for in Week 18, because if they win, they'll clinch the fifth seed in the AFC (They could fall to the sixth seed if they lose and the Chargers win).

NFC
1. Vikings (NFC North leader): 14-2
2. Eagles (Clinched NFC East): 13-3
3. Rams (Clinched NFC West): 10-6
4. Buccaneers (NFC South leader): 9-7
5. Lions: 13-2
6. Commanders: 11-5
7. Packers: 11-5
First team out: Falcons (8-8)
Clinched division and playoff spot: Eagles (Clinched No. 2 seed), Rams
Clinched playoff spot: Lions, Vikings, Packers, Commanders

NFC Breakdown

NFC's top seed is up for grabs. The biggest game in Week 18 will be Vikings at Lions. Not only will the NFC North title be on the line, but the winner will also get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. On the other hand, the loser will get the No. 5 seed and they'll be forced to hit the road in the wild-card round. Even if the Lions lose tonight against the 49ers, the stakes won't be changing for the Minnesota-Detroit game.
NFC South is still up for grabs. With the Falcons losing on Sunday night, that means the Buccaneers can clinch the division title with a win over the Saints in Week 18. However, if they lose, then the Falcons will win the division with a win over the Panthers.
NFC West race is over. Although the Rams and Seahawks will be playing each other in Week 18, that game won't mean anything because the Rams have already clinched the division. The Commanders' win over the Falcons allowed the Rams to clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker, which allowed them to clinch the NFC West on Sunday night.
Wild-card seeds are still up in the air. If the Commanders beat the Cowboys in Week 18, then Washington will get the No. 6 seed. However, if the Commanders lose, that will open the door for Green Bay to get the sixth seed.

The Vikings-Lions game will be the final game of the 2024 regular season and will kick off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday. The NFL will also be holding a doubleheader on Saturday and that will kick off with Browns-Ravens at 4:30 p.m. ET followed by Bengals-Steelers at 8 p.m. ET.

Here's a full look at the Week 18 schedule:

Saturday, Jan. 4