Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I'm going to make today's newsletter as dramatic as possible since we didn't really get any drama over the weekend. There were five games played and only ONE of them went down to the wire. Although we got stuck with four blowouts, I actually thought it was a decent weekend of football.
In a span of 36 hours, we saw:
- Two underdogs win (Texans and Commanders).
- The Commanders won their first playoff game in 19 years, and the win came on a field goal that bounced off the upright.
- Justin Herbert became the first QB in the Super Bowl era to throw more interceptions in one playoff game (4) than he threw during the ENTIRE regular season (3).
- C.J. Stroud threw for 101 yards on ONE DRIVE, becoming just the third QB over the past 30 years to pull that off in the playoffs.
- The Steelers became the first team in NFL history to give up at least 28 points in six straight playoff games.
- The Bills pulled off their third-largest playoff victory in franchise history with a 24-point win over the Broncos.
We'll be covering each of those games in today's newsletter, plus, we'll be previewing tonight's game between the Rams and Vikings.
Oh, and we also saw A.J. Brown reading a book on the sideline, and since today is my birthday, I'm definitely going to make sure to tell someone in my family to buy it for me. If it can keep Brown calm during the playoffs, it will probably work wonders for me.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Breaking down Wild Card Weekend: Home teams go 4-1
Since things got so wild over the weekend, we thought it would make sense to at least take a brief look at what happened in each game, so that's what we're going to do here. Home teams went 4-1, which means they've now gone 9-2 over the past two seasons.
- (4) Texans 32-12 over (5) Chargers. The Texans fell behind 6-0 early, but then took over after that to dominate the final three quarters. The Texans defense came up big with four interceptions of Justin Herbert, including a pick six by Eric Murray in the second half. Herbert threw more picks in this one playoff game (4) than he threw during the entire regular season (3). Offensively, the Texans were carried by Nico Collins and Joe Mixon, who both had big days. Collins caught seven passes for 122 yards, including a 13-yard touchdown in the second quarter that put the Texans up for good at 7-6. As for Mixon, he crossed the 100-yard mark with 106 yards and a touchdown in the win. You can check out our full takeaways from the game here.
- (3) Ravens 28-14 over (6) Steelers. This game was a beatdown from start to finish. The Ravens used Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to streamroll their way to a win over the Steelers. Henry rushed for 186 yards and two touchdowns while Jackson added 81 rushing yards on a night where the Ravens totaled 299 yards on the ground. Jackson also threw for 175 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Ravens jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first half and it was never really close after that. The Steelers briefly showed signs of life with two Russell Wilson touchdown passes in the third quarter, but they never got the lead under 14 points in the second half. We've got quite a few takeaways from this game, and you can see them here.
- (2) Bills 31-7 over (7) Broncos. The Bills fell behind 7-0 after Denver's opening drive, but it was all Buffalo after that. Josh Allen totaled more than 300 yards with 272 yards and two touchdowns through the air while also tacking on 46 yards on the ground. Although Allen put up impressive passing numbers, the Bills' rushing attack was what really shined for Buffalo with James Cook rushing for 120 yards and a touchdown. With the win, the Bills became the first team since 2012 to finish with at least 250 passing yards and 200 rushing yards in a playoff game. For more on Buffalo's blowout win, be sure to click here.
- (2) Eagles 22-10 over (7) Packers. The Packers fumbled away the opening kickoff and things got ugly from there. Jalen Hurts threw a touchdown pass to Jahan Dotson two plays after the fumble and that put the Eagles ahead for good in the game. Jordan Love threw three interceptions and the Packers were never really able to get their offense going against an Eagles defense that absolutely suffocated the Packers. The Eagles offense wasn't great, but Saquon Barkley (119 rushing yards) and Jalen Hurts (two touchdown passes) did just enough to help Philly pick up the win. There was one minor controversy in the game and that came on the opening kickoff fumble by Keisean Nixon. The Packers returner appeared to recover the fumble while on the ground, but an Eagles player came out of the pile with the ball, so the officials stuck with their call on the field after a review and that call was that Philadelphia had recovered (You can see the play here). We covered Philly's win in full and you can check out our full story here.
- (6) Commanders 23-20 over (3) Buccaneers. In his playoff debut, Jayden Daniels led the Commanders to their first playoff win since the 2005 season. Not only did Daniels throw for 268 yards and two touchdowns, but he also led the team in rushing with 36 yards. With the win, Daniels became the first rookie quarterback to win a road playoff game since 2012. This was the only dramatic game of the day: The Commanders didn't clinch their win until the final play when Zane Gonzalez hit a 37-yard field goal off the right upright (You can see the kick here). For more on the biggest upset of Wild Card Weekend, you can check out our full story here.
Seven of the eight spots in the divisional round have now been filled, and with the Ravens, Bills and Texans all advancing, that means that AFC will have the same teams in the divisional round for the second straight season. That marks just the second time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 that a conference has had the same four divisional round teams in back-to-back years.
As for the the wild-card round, we have one more game coming tonight and we'll be previewing it below.
2. Monday night preview: Prepping you for Vikings vs. Rams in Arizona
The final game of the wild-card round will be taking place in Arizona. No, the Cardinals didn't make the playoffs, but their home stadium will be hosting the game after the wildfires in Southern California forced the NFL to move the game from SoFi Stadium to State Farm Stadium.
The winner of tonight's game will earn a free trip to Philadelphia for a divisional-round showdown with the Eagles.
With that in mind, here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident about a possible win:
- Why the Vikings can win: The Vikings racked up 49 sacks in 2024, which was tied for the fourth most in the NFL this season. During the regular season, there was only ONE game where the Vikings didn't record a sack and that came in their 30-20 loss to the Rams in Week 8. If they can get after Matthew Stafford, that should give them a good chance to win and that's mostly because the Rams are 1-5 this season when Stafford gets sacked three or more times.
- Why the Rams can win: The key here is going to be Matthew Stafford. The Vikings surrendered 242 passing yards per game this year, which was the fourth most in the NFL, so you can absolutely throw on them. Back in Week 8, Stafford threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns, and with a fully healthy arsenal of receiving weapons going into tonight's game, we could see him get near those numbers again. The Rams went 5-1 this season when Stafford threw two TD passes or more in a game.
You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Justin Jefferson OVER 6.5 receptions (-145 at BetMGM): The Vikings will do whatever they can to get the ball in Jefferson's hands. The Vikings star closed out the regular season by going over 6.5 receptions in five of Minnesota's final six games. He also had eight receptions in Week 8 against the Rams and I won't be surprised if he gets right around that number tonight.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Joshua Karty OVER 1.5 field goals (+100 at BetMGM): The Rams kicker closed the regular season out by hitting at least two field goals in four straight games. Karty also closed out the season by hitting 13 straight field goals and I think that showing is going to give Sean McVay a lot of confidence when it comes to using his kicker tonight.
And in case you're wondering, my props are now 44-31 on the season (21-14 on kicker props and 23-17 on all other props).
The guys over at SportsLine have a full betting preview for Vikings-Rams, and you can check that out here.
And finally, here are our picks for the game.
PICKS FOR TONIGHT
Dubin's pick: Vikings 26-23 over Rams
Prisco's pick: Rams 28-24 over Vikings
My pick: Rams 26-23 over Vikings
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here. Surprisingly, seven of us are taking the Rams to win despite the fact that their a 2.5-point underdog.
3. NFL playoffs: What we've learned from the wild-card round so far
We learned a lot over Wild Card Weekend, so Cody Benjamin decided to break down everything we learned and put it into a nice easily digestible format.
Here are three of the biggest things we learned from the weekend:
- Jayden Daniels isn't your average rookie QB. "Daniels never blinked in his first playoff game, even while enduring some red-zone hiccups, outlasting Baker Mayfield while essentially carrying Kliff Kingsbury's entire attack, to give Washington its first playoff win since 2005. He's got 'It.'"
- The Eagles are winning because of their defense. "Philadelphia's opening-round victory was almost entirely thanks to Vic Fangio's physical unit, which never let Jordan Love get comfortable, could've easily exceeded its three-interception total and stayed strong despite a knee injury to starting linebacker Nakobe Dean." Note: Dean tore his patellar tendon and will miss the rest of the postseason.
- Denver wasn't quite ready for the big stage. "Finishing just 3 of 12 on third and fourth downs, it's clear the Broncos could use some serious offensive reinforcements moving forward, both in the backfield and out wide. The Patrick Surtain-led 'D' got outclassed, too, but helping Nix actually move the ball should be priority No. 1."
You can check out Cody's full story here.
4. Divisional round playoff schedule is out
Even though the wild-card round isn't even over yet, we already know the divisional round schedule, and that's because the NFL announced it on Sunday night. The two teams that got a bye over the weekend -- the Chiefs and Lions -- will both be playing on Saturday, with Kansas City hosting the early game and Detroit hosting the nightcap.
With that in mind, here's a look at the playoff schedule for the divisional round.
Saturday, Jan. 18
- (4) Texans at (1) Chiefs (-8), 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC). These two teams faced each other less than a month ago with the Chiefs beating the Texans 27-19 in Week 16. C.J. Stroud threw two interceptions that led to 10 points for the Chiefs and that ended up being the difference in the game.
- (6) Commanders at (1) Lions (-8.5), 8 p.m. (Fox). These two teams have faced each other three times in the playoffs and Washington has gone 3-0 in those games. If the Commanders can pull off the upset here, It would allow them to advance to the NFC title game for the first time since 1991. That's the longest conference title game drought in the NFC and second longest in the NFL, trailing only the Browns, who haven't been to the AFC title game since 1989.
Sunday, Jan. 19
- (4/5) Rams/Vikings at (2) Eagles, 3 p.m. ET (NBC). The Eagles will be hosting this game no matter who they play. If they play the Rams, it will be a rematch of a Week 12 game that the Eagles won 37-20. If they play the Vikings, it would mark the fourth time in the past 20 years that the two teams have met in the postseason with Philadelphia going 3-0 in the previous three meetings.
- (3) Ravens at (2) Bills (-1), 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+). This is the showdown we've all been waiting for: It's Lamar Jackson vs. Josh Allen with a berth to the AFC Championship game on the line. These two teams actually met back in Week 4 with the Ravens destroying the Bills, 35-10.
You can see the full playoff schedule here. We also did an early deep dive into each of the four divisional-round games and you can check that out here.
5. Patriots hire Mike Vrabel: Four things to know
Mike Vrabel is officially headed back to New England. Vrabel won three Super Bowls with the Patriots as a player, and now, he'll be heading to New England to try and win one as the team's newest head coach. The hiring comes just three months after Vrabel was inducted into the Patriots' Hall of Fame.
Vrabel will be replacing Jerod Mayo, who was fired last week after just one season on the job.
Here's what you need to know about Vrabel's hiring:
- Patriots were eyeing Vrabel all along. After Mayo was fired on Jan. 5, the Patriots only interviewed four candidates for the job -- Vrabel, Ben Johnson, Byron Leftwich and Pep Hamilton -- and it was pretty clear all along that the job was either going to go to Vrabel or Johnson, the Lions offensive coordinator. Vrabel was hired just seven days after the end of the season, marking the fastest hire by any team since Washington took just two days to hire Ron Rivera in 2019 (Mayo was hired the day after Bill Belichick was fired last season, but he didn't have to go through the interview process because it was in his contract that he would succeed Belichick).
- Vrabel has a strong track record. Vrabel has only been a head coach once before and that came during six seasons with the Titans (2018-23). During his time in Tennessee, he led the Titans to the playoffs three times, including an AFC Championship game appearance in 2019. He also led the Titans to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC in 2021, which is a season where he was voted the NFL's Coach of the Year.
- Vrabel thrives as an underdog. The Patriots should be feeling good about any game where they're an underdog next year and that's because Vrabel thrives as an underdog. Since 1970, 142 head coaches have coached 30 games or more as an underdog of at least three points. Mike Vrabel is the ONLY one with a winning record in those games (21-20).
- Vrabel on his fourth stop in the NFL. Vrabel's coaching career started at Ohio State in 2011. After three seasons in Columbus, he took a job as the Texans' linebackers coach in 2014. After three seasons in that role, he was promoted to defensive coordinator in 2017. After one year as the DC in Houston, he was hired to be the Titans' head coach in 2018. After being fired following the 2023 season, Vrabel took a consulting job with the Browns in 2024, which is what he was doing until two weeks ago.
We've got a full story on Vrabel's hiring, and you can check that out here. CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones broke down the process of the hiring, and you can read his story here.
If you want to check out all the news from the coaching carousel that you missed over the weekend, you can check out our tracker here.
6. Extra points: Cowboys parting ways with Mike McCarthy
It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Mike McCarthy won't be returning to Dallas. After five seasons with the Cowboys, Mike McCarthy will be moving on. McCarthy's contract is set to expire at midnight tonight so the two sides technically have until then to get a deal done, but CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones has reported that the Cowboys have decided to move on. From a glamour standpoint, this is the most attractive job in the NFL, but from a practical standpoint, it's a high-pressure job where the head coach has almost no say in personnel. McCarthy went 49-35 in five seasons, but he was never able to get the Cowboys past the divisional round of the playoffs.
- NFL could change playoff seeding format. CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reported over the weekend that the NFL will take a look at the current seeding format. One possible fix is that the four teams with the best winning percentage would get to host in the wild-card round instead of automatically giving each division winner a home game. If that had been in place this year, Washington and Minnesota would have both been scheduled to host a wild-card game instead of Tampa Bay and the L.A. Rams. You can check out the full story on this situation here.
- Steelers planning to keep Mike Tomlin. The Steelers coach lost his sixth straight playoff game over the weekend, which is the second-longest postseason losing streak by a coach in NFL history, but despite his playoff struggles, it seems that the Steelers are fully planning to bring Tomlin back as head coach. You can read more about Tomlin's future here. CBSSports.com's Bryan DeArdo says the Steelers need to make some drastic changes this offseason, and you can see what he has to say about Pittsburgh's future here.
- Raiders not interested in Deion Sanders. There was a report over the weekend that Deion Sanders is eyeing the Raiders coaching job, but apparently, the feeling isn't mutual. According to The Athletic, the Raiders have "zero interest" in hiring Sanders. The Colorado coach had said last week that he would be willing to coach in the NFL, but only he would be able to coach his sons. You can read his full comments here.
- Khalil Mack mulling retirement. The 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year might be calling it quits. Mack is set to hit free agency this year, but that might not happen, because he's not sure he wants to play anymore, "I can't really speak on a definitive decision in terms of what I'm going to do because I don't know if I'm going to play football moving forward," Mack said Sunday, via ESPN.com. Mack is a nine-time Pro Bowler who likely won't have any issues finding a job if he does decide to play another season.
