There is a lot of history when it comes to the No. 1 offense and No. 1 defense squaring off in the Super Bowl, and none of it is very good news for the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons averaged 33.8 points per game this season, while the Patriots gave up less than 16 points on the year.

Teams with the No. 1 defense are 5-1 in previous Super Bowls against the No. 1 offense, with the only victory by the offense coming in Super Bowl XXIV, when the San Francisco 49ers throttled the Denver Broncos 55-10. The difference there? The 49ers were also the No. 3 scoring defense that year.

And that makes it interesting for the Patriots because, despite the fact they're the No. 1 defense, they're also the No. 3 scoring offense. Tom Brady is pretty good at passing the football.

From that standpoint, they bear a closer resemblance to the 49ers (No. 1/No. 3) than someone picking the Falcons would feel comfortable seeing.

On the other hand, the Patriots defense hasn't been playing a murderers' row of opponents this year.

This isn't to say the Patriots aren't good. They're a very good team. The best in the AFC and it's not close -- they actually finished as the most efficient team in football according to Football Outsiders DVOA rankings.

But they weren't the top defensive team. In fact, they were No. 16 overall in defensive DVOA, thanks in large part to ranking 23rd against the pass. They will greatly confuse the Falcons and they will make life difficult for Matt Ryan and the offense; it's what Bill Belichick does when he has two weeks to prepare.

But Atlanta has enough weapons to overcome just about any game plan. If the Patriots take away Julio Jones -- which is easier to say than actually do, even with double teams, because of how he moves around -- the additional weapons are capable of doing damage. Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel are much more dangerous than Cobi Hamilton and Sammie Coates (with all due respect to the Steelers).

That doesn't include the two running backs in this game, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, as dangerous a duo out of the backfield as you'll see on just about any roster.

For the Falcons defensively, there's not much to love here. Atlanta is 29th in DVOA against the run and 27th overall on defense.

The biggest concern if you're an Atlanta fan is the possibility of the Patriots uncorking LeGarrette Blount on a soft run defense and turning the game into a slug fest. The Falcons don't want that.

What they have to hope for is getting pressure on Brady with a front four that produced just 34 sacks on the season, although it's a unit that has come up with five sacks in the postseason. The Falcons defense also produced a whopping 15 quarterback hits over the last two weeks during playoff victories over the Seahawks and Packers. Seattle's offensive line isn't great, but the Falcons put pressure on Aaron Rodgers early and it changed the outcome of that game.

Look at the Falcons before and after the bye when it comes to defense:

Falcons 2016 Points/Game Yards/Game Takeaways
Weeks 1-10 28.3 385.9 1.1
Weeks 12-20 20.5 344.5 1.9

Atlanta's young players on defense stepped up down the stretch. Young defenders is usually a red flag against Brady and Belichick, but improving young defenders and pass rushers who are starting to feel at home on a defense that's been improving and generating more turnovers is a big plus for Dan Quinn, who has already faced off against Brady and Belichick in a Super Bowl.

At the end of the day, I think this game resembles the last time the Patriots played in Houston, when they squared off against the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII. There are some striking similarities between that Patriots team and the current Patriots team.

So why not a similar type of game? I think this one ends up being thrilling, makes up for a garbage posteason, and ultimately comes down to a late play by the Falcons to steal the game, maybe even a game-winning kick.

The pick: Falcons 28, Patriots 27