Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, odds: 2025 Christmas NFL 'Thursday Night Football' picks from proven model

The 2025 NFL Christmas schedule concludes with a "Thursday Night Football" AFC West battle of teams in a surprising position as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos. The Broncos (12-3) lead the entire AFC and are chasing a top seed and a bye in the NFL playoffs. Kansas City, meanwhile, has been eliminated from the playoff picture. Kansas City is down to third quarterback Chris Oladokun and Shane Buechele, signed off the Buffalo practice squad on Monday, after losing Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew to knee injuries in consecutive weeks. 

Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds have Denver favored by 12.5 points, while the over/under for total points scored is 36.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Before making any Chiefs vs. Broncos picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 17 on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Broncos. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs:

Why the Chiefs can cover

The Chiefs haven't been this big of an underdog since the 2021 season, so it's a massive amount of points to be getting for the Chiefs, especially at home. Kansas City has been decimated by injuries at quarterback, but still has star power in tight end Travis Kelce, defensive lineman Chris Jones, receiver Xavier Worthy and others. Even in a the midst of a lost season, they'll be highly-motivated to avoid a blowout at the hands of their division rivals in the national spotlight. Denver is just 2-5 against the spread on the road and it only has two double-digit wins this season. The Broncos are also coming off a poor showing against the Jaguars, losing 34-20 despite being 3.5-point favorites in that Week 16 matchup. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Broncos can cover

Denver has more to play for as the Broncos have the inside track for the top seed in the AFC side of the NFL playoff bracket. The Broncos already beat the Chiefs 22-19 last month, and that was when Kansas City had Mahomes and was still in contention, so a much bigger margin could be in play in this one. The Chiefs are just 5-10 overall this season against the spread. They are also just 1-7 ATS against quality opponents (teams that have won 55% or more of games) 0-7 ATS against teams that give up fewer than 21 points per game. Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in scoring defense (19.7 ppg), fourth in the NFL in total defense (291.6 ypg) and leads the league in total sacks (63) by a wide margin, making life extremely tough on a quarterback with virtually no experience. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Chiefs vs. Broncos picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Broncos vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and is going Over on the total, projecting 37 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.