Chiefs at Buccaneers -- Week 6

Where: Raymond James Stadium (grass, outdoors), Tampa, Fla.

When: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Spread: Tampa Bay by 4.5

Forecast: Scattered clouds; projected kickoff temperature: mid-80s.

Records: Bucs (1-3 overall; 1-0 NFC South); Chiefs (1-4 overall; 0-1 AFC West)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- 2008: Tampa Bay 30, Kansas City 27; 2004: Tampa Bay 34, Kansas City 31. Series record: The two teams are even all-time, as the Bucs hold a 5-5 record against the Chiefs in a series that dates back to 1976. The Bucs have won the last three meetings.

What matters: The early consensus is that Tampa Bay is much improved in its first season under coach Greg Schiano, but doesn't have the results to show for it. Close losses to the Giants, Cowboys and Redskins (by a combined 15 points) led into the team's bye week. The team's inconsistent offense was a particular focus during the off week. The Bucs have shown the most promise when they aired the ball out vertically late in games. Will Schiano unleash QB Josh Freeman a bit? The answer could go a long way in determining what the rest of the team's season looks like.

Who matters: The Bucs' secondary has been awful, ranking last in the league in pass defense (345.3 yards per game allowed). But with the Chiefs forced to use backup QB Brady Quinn this week, they may have a chance to compete a bit better. Quinn tends to use his legs a bit more when pressured than typical Kansas City starter Matt Cassel, so Tampa Bay's linebackers and secondary can't just focus on stopping WR Dwayne Bowe and company. 

Key matchups: Tampa Bay's run defense has been vastly improved this year. The Bucs ranked last in the NFL in that category a season ago, but are No. 4 in rush defense (73.8 yards per game allowed) early this season. With Quinn in at QB, the Chiefs may try to rely on RB Jamaal Charles, who had 30 carries for 140 yards last week against Baltimore. Slowing Charles down is the key to the game for the Bucs' defense, as Quinn figures to struggle unless Tampa Bay has to devote extra defenders to the box to stop the run.

Injuries of note: The Buccaneers came out of the bye week about as healthy as they have been all season. The only player whose status appears to be in question at all is DT Roy Miller, who was dealing with a back injury. But according to Roy Cummings of the Tampa Tribune, Miller practiced Friday.

Inside stuff: The Bucs' running game has struggled through the team's first four games. Rookie RB Doug Martin, who won the starting job in the preseason, is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry -- 65th in the NFL among players at his position. LeGarrette Blount carried a season-high six times in the team's loss to the Redskins in Week 4, scoring a touchdown in the process. His bruising style could become a bigger part of the team's offense in the weeks ahead.

Connections: Tampa Bay's senior offensive assistant, Jimmy Raye, was a longtime Chiefs assistant, serving as the franchise's tight ends coach, running backs coach and offensive coordinator from 1992-2000. Beyond that, there are few ties between the two franchises.

Stats you should know: Tampa Bay has not been able to sustain scoring drives because of its lack of success on third downs. The Bucs are 30th in the NFL in third down conversion percentage, moving the chains on only 25.5 percent of their third down plays. From Freeman's struggles in third-and-long situations to the running game's inability to power through for first downs in short-yardage, the Bucs must improve in that area if they hope to compete. Schiano and company should have the chance to force a few turnovers, as the Chiefs are an NFL-worst minus-15 in turnover margin.

Looking ahead: Sunday's game is a chance for the Bucs to get back on track, as they have winnable games against the Chiefs and Saints in their first two games following their Week 5 bye. If this team harbors any hopes of competing seriously in the NFC South (where the Falcons have raced out to a 5-0 start while the Bucs, Panthers and Saints all languish), it simply must win this game.

Prediction: Bucs 24, Chiefs 17

For more from Tampa Bay Bucs blogger Patrick Southern, follow @CBSBucs on Twitter.