The drastic difference in play in September begs the question -- did the Bears make the wrong decision drafting Caleb Williams No. 1 overall instead of Jayden Daniels?
Each passer is a mere four games into his NFL career. If this was a movie, it would be in the opening scene, and no one in their right mind would concretely judge a movie strictly on what transpires in the flick's first five minutes.
But first impressions often matter. That opening scene can have a lasting impact. It can set the stage for everything else.
Sure, it's early. So my answer to this blunt question is fluid. It has to be.
Yet it wouldn't have been too early to make a determination a season ago in this same scenario, when C.J. Stroud started with a quarterback rating of 100.6 with an 8.03 yards-per-attempt average in his first four contests compared to Bryce Young's 77.0 rating and YPA of 5.21.
By the way, Daniels' rating is currently 107.4. His YPA is 8.5. Williams' passer rating is 72.0 and his yards-per-attempt is 5.6.
For the record here, I firmly do not believe Williams will become Young 2.0. He's much more naturally gifted as a thrower and improviser. But the production differences one month into their rookie campaigns are eerily similar.
Let's dig deeper here. Much deeper. Below, you'll see an advanced statistic comparison between Williams and Daniels ahead of Week 5's action.
| Adjusted Comp % | Average Depth of Target | Pressure Rate | Pressure-to-Sack % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Caleb Williams | 72.6 (27th) | 8.5 (T8th) | 32.7% (20th) | 30.2 (30th) |
Jayden Daniels | 84.6 (1st) | 6.4 (32nd) | 30.9% (23rd) | 20.9 (17th) |
What stands out? The accuracy numbers. But it's important to not view those as binary. The average depth of target matters. Those numbers together encapsulate a completely different offensive philosophy in Washington and Chicago.
Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has prioritized easy, high-percentage throws for Daniels out of the gate. And he's taken them. The Bears have done the opposite, leaning more on Williams live arm and natural aggressiveness as a passer, and the No. 1 overall pick has stayed true to form, often attempting deeper those with average results.
To hammer home this disparity, check this graph from Judah Fortgang of PFF:
Daniels is seeing more separation than any other quarterback in football to date, which of course can come from individual pass-catching options winning their one-on-one matchups and said skill-position players being schemed up.
The separation Williams has witnessed is right about at league average, which of course indicates it's been more difficult for him as a passer. But it's worth noting his accuracy has been below average.
We're done yet. This graph from Fortgang features a newly created metric called "Destroy Rate," which he explains in the caption. Note the location of Daniels and Williams here.
Currently, Daniels has the lowest "Destroy Rate" among qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL. In essence, he's not creating problems for himself or the Commanders offense when they're not there to begin with. Williams, on the other hand, is "destroying" the play at an almost identical rate to Deshaun Watson. Yikes.
In this case, I'm not as much focusing on EPA, particularly because we're isolating the play of the quarterbacks. To me, because EPA is an offense statistic, not simply a quarterback one. The destroy rate, though? Yeah. And it's been strikingly different.
Today, the running element at the quarterback position can't be ignored, and Daniels has been considerably better than Williams on the ground too. The Commanders rookie leads the NFL with 23 scrambles through four games. Those have accumulated 168 yards and nine first downs. Williams has only scrambled seven times, for a respectable 68 yards with three rushing first downs.
At Oklahoma and USC, Williams creativity eluding defenders was part of the many Patrick Mahomes' comparisons. But there was no doubting who, between Williams and Daniels, was the more dynamic running threat. In 2023 at LSU, Daniels ran for 1,134 yards at a seismic 8.4 yards-per-carry pop.
The Bears absolutely should have known -- and likely did -- they were choosing the less threatening designed-run/scrambling talent when they drafted Williams with the first pick.
But for as much of a "necessary luxury" as plus mobility has become at quarterback in the NFL, throwing the football is still the one aspect on which success hinges most. However, to counter what Daniels can do with his legs accumulating yardage -- not just evading defenders behind the line -- Williams has to be that much better a passer. It's critical to keep that in mind.
And I don't believe it to be purely coincidental that Williams had his best performance to date -- by passer rating, which was 106.6 -- in the Week 4 win over the Rams in which Keenan Allen was back on the field.
A season ago, Allen had 108 catches for over 1,200 yards with the Chargers. According to FantasyPoints.com, Allen finished fourth in the NFL in "Separation Score" among the 64 receivers who ran at least 400 yards. That new metric is simply an average of how well a receiver gets open (or doesn't) based on a grading scale on every qualifying route. And he currently ranks 23rd in Separation Score among the 188 wideouts who've run at least 40 routes. Allen is still as savvy of a route-runner as they come.
And he played 38 snaps in the season-opening win over the Titans, catching three passes for 19 yards, and 41 snaps in Week 4's victory over the Rams, catching four passes for 29 yards.
While those numbers certainly don't leap out of the stat book, those are seven plays that very well could've ended with an incompletion, sack, or bad decision had Allen not been on the field. And his presence has gravity, a ripple effect of sorts on the rest of Chicago's receiver group and the defenders tasked with covering them. Let's continue to monitor how Allen directly impacts Williams' maturation.
Right now, I won't write whether or not the Bears made the wrong decision pick Williams over Daniels at No. 1 overall.
But if we're comparing opening scenes -- Daniels' has been more well-conceived, with clearer highlighting of the strengths of the main character.