While you may be out there finding yourselves on the path to self discovery, I'm on the path to stats discovery as we close in on the beginning of the 2024 season. Every week as we approach the NFL season opener, I'll take you on a truth-seeking, deep stats dive into a topical, debated NFL storyline.
Today's topic is a draft debate. Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa both signed massive extensions in the last month, meaning the 2020 NFL Draft has produced a whopping $1.2 billion in quarterback contracts between Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts.
If their franchises are willing to commit that sort of cash, I don't think it's too early to suggest this is a generational group that could challenge 1983 and 2004 for the best quarterback classes of all time. For a refresher, the 1983 class produced a record six quarterbacks drafted in the first round (it was matched in 2024), including a record three Hall of Fame quarterbacks: John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino.
The 2004 class could also have a trio of Hall of Famers in Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger. They all rank top 10 all time in touchdown passes and this is the only class to produce multiple quarterbacks with multiple Super Bowl wins.
Does 2020 even belong in the conversation?
Those are the gold standards for quarterback draft classes and they have set the bar very high. But, if $1.2 billion doesn't convince you, here's why the 2020 group belongs in the conversation.
While 1983 and 2004 produced three all-time great quarterbacks, 2020 could be the deepest class ever, and perhaps the first to produce five franchise quarterbacks. No draft class has ever featured five quarterbacks who spent at least 10 seasons with their debut team. There's a long way to go, but this group has a shot. If they all play out the life of their second contract (which is a big IF), they would be on the doorstep. It's a hypothetical, but it's at least enough to warrant this entire conversation.
Trophy cases
Enough hypotheticals, though, let's talk about what 2020 has done through four seasons and how that compares historically. You might be tempted to write 2020 off because they have zero NFL MVP awards and zero Super Bowl rings. Don't do it! Keep in mind, the 1983 class combined to produce two rings and two MVPs for their entire careers. The 2004 group had four rings and zero MVPs.
It might not take 2020 too long to match or surpass those numbers based on how close they've already come. One positive sign: five quarterbacks have already led their teams to the playoffs. They are one of three draft classes which can make that claim through four seasons, along with 1983 and 2012. By the way, the 2012 class provides a cautionary tale as their numbers through four seasons rivaled 2020, but Luck and Griffin III didn't have the longevity to help elevate this class.
Most Quarterbacks to Start a Playoff Game in First Four Seasons - Draft Classes in NFL History
- 2012: 6 (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Lindley)
- 2020: 5 (Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts)
- 1983: 5 (Dan Marino, John Elway, Ken O'Brien, Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason)
Don't forget, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow were both a play away from a Super Bowl title and Hurts could have won the MVP in 2022 if he didn't hurt his shoulder late in the season. The 1983, 2004 and 2020 classes are the only ones to ever produce multiple starting quarterbacks who made a Super Bowl within their first four seasons. John Elway, Dan Marino and Tony Eason did this for the 1983 class and Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger turned the trick for the 2004 group.
Most Quarterbacks to Start Super Bowl in First Four Seasons - Draft Classes in NFL History
- 1983: 3 (John Elway, Tony Eason, Dan Marino)
- 2020: 2 (Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts)
- 2004: 2 (Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger)
Clearly, 2020 is right there with 1983 and 2004 for early playoff accolades. Here's the exact numbers for the combined draft classes through four years. It's pretty close and 2004 gets the edge due to Super Bowl wins from Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Manning gets bonus points for beating the undefeated Patriots in 2007, too.
| Playoff Stats Through Four Seasons by Draft Class | 1983 | 2004 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
W-L | 8-9 | 11-6 | 8-8 |
Super Bowl W-L | 0-3 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
Pass TD-INT | 26-20 | 24-21 | 22-9 |
Passer rating | 79.8 | 82.9 | 91.5 |
Video game numbers
The playoff numbers are there, and the overall production is, too. Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert, Love and Hurts have combined for 466 career touchdowns (passing and rushing), the most ever among any five quarterbacks for a class through four seasons. That's incredible when you take into account that Love has only played one season as a full-time starter.
It also gives you an idea of how productive this group is in terms of volume, but that's skewed when comparing different eras.
We need to look at an efficiency measure, and we can't use yards per attempt or passer rating because once again, passing in 1983 and 2020 aren't created equally. So, I used a stat from pro football reference called ANY/A+. It's essentially a better version of passer rating that is era-adjusted and on a scale where 100 is average. I looked at every primary starter from each class through four seasons.
Here's a look at those primary starters:
- 1983: John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Ken O'Brien, Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason
- 2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman, Matt Schaub
- 2020: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jalen Hurts
I found all three classes were above league average in this category, with 1983 slightly ahead of the other two. Dan Marino was a big reason why. He shattered the NFL record for touchdown passes in a season (48 in 1984) in his second year while winning MVP and leading Miami to the Super Bowl. He posted the second-highest single-season ANY/A+ (150) in NFL history that year.
| Regular Season Stats Through Four Seasons by Draft Class | 1983 | 2004 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
Starts | 238 | 202 | 240 |
Win pct | .601 | .554 | .560 |
ANY/A+ | 110 | 105 | 108 |
Verdict: 1983 and 2004 have slight edge through four years
Add it all up and the 2020 quarterback class has the numbers and accolades through four seasons to rival 1983 and 2004. Those two classes get the slight edge when you consider Dan Marino's MVP season in 1984 and the Super Bowls won by Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger early in their careers.
The next question is, can the 2020 class keep up the pace and add a few MVPs and Super Bowls? They would also need the longevity to land a few players near the top of the all-time passing leaderboards. If they can, they would have a case for best draft class ever due to the unrivaled depth it could have with five potential franchise quarterbacks.
They could also go the other way and have a few quarterbacks deal with injuries and play their way out of town. The aforementioned 2012 class features a pair of Super Bowl winners (Nick Foles, Russell Wilson), two solid starters (Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins) and two 'What IFs' (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III). It'll be interesting to see if 2020 remains on the generational path of 1983 and 2004, or falls off like 2012.
