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Here's a stat for you: The 2025 New England Patriots had the easiest schedule since the 1999 St. Louis Rams. But the Patriots don't care if you think that their turnaround season and 14-3 record were the byproduct of playing nobodies; those Rams parlayed that schedule into a Super Bowl title, and New England plans to do the same.

On Sunday, the Patriots will get a chance to quiet their critics when the team squares off against the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) in a NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchup on Sunday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The winner will advance to an AFC Divisional Round game next week.

Both New England and Los Angeles are seeking their first playoff win since the 2018 season. In addition both quarterbacks -- the Patriots' Drake Maye and the Chargers' Justin Herbert -- are looking to earn their first career playoff victories. Maye is making his postseason debut, while Herbert is 0-for-2 in his playoff appearances.

New England is a 3.5-point favorite over Los Angeles at DraftKings.

Patriots vs. Chargers odds

  • Opening spread: Patriots -3.5 (-110)
  • Opening money line: Patriots -180, Chargers +150
  • Opening total: 44.5

This line has remained steady at this number since opening at New England -3.5. This will be the fifth time in the last six games with Los Angeles as the underdog. The Chargers went 3-1 both against-the-spread and straight-up in those previous four contests. Meanwhile the Patriots are 4-1 both ATS and straight-up over their last five games. The last time these teams met came in Week 17 of the 2024 season, also in Foxborough. Los Angeles was a six-point favorite that day and won 40-7.

However, there has been some movement on the total, which has risen slightly from its initial offering. Over bettors may be taking into account that New England has scored at least 24 points in 12 straight games.

Patriots betting profile

  • Opening win total: 7.5 wins  
  • W/L record: 14-3
  • ATS record: 12-5
  • O/U record: 11-6

Believers in the Patriots had many positive moments in 2025. New England's 12-5 record against-the-spread during the regular season was tied for the best such record in the league. The Patriots also soared over their preseason win total, earning their eighth win in Week 10. In addition, the Over has hit in each of New England's last five games.

On Sunday, the Patriots will face a Los Angeles offense that has struggled to protect Herbert. Playing without their starting offensive tackles for much of the year, the Chargers allowed a franchise-worst 60 sacks this season, which is the fifth-most by any team that's ever reached the playoffs. In addition, Herbert has famously struggled in the postseason. He is 0-2 in his playoff career, including a 32-12 loss last year to the Texans in which he competed just 14-of-32 passes for 242 yards and four interceptions with only one touchdown pass.

Chargers betting profile

  • Opening win total: 9.5 wins
  • W/L record: 11-6
  • ATS record: 9-8
  • O/U record: 7-10

The Chargers are 4-2 both ATS and straight-up in their last six games, but remember that coach Jim Harbaugh sat several key starters in the regular season finale against the Broncos. Los Angeles is 4-0 straight-up all-time as an underdog in the Wild Card round, but the last one of those victories came in the 2018 season. The Under has cashed in four of team's last five games, and Under bettors will like that the total has crept up since its opening. 

While the Chargers have been notorious for giving up sacks this season, New England hasn't been a high-sack defense. The Patriots have registered just 35 sacks this season; just six teams have had fewer. In addition, New England is largely unproven against quality teams. The Patriots are just 1-2 this season against teams that finished with a winning record. That lone victory came in Week 5 against the Bills.

Patriots-Chargers prop pick: Hunter Henry Over 41.5 total receiving yards

Los Angeles' defense has few weaknesses, but one area that Maye and the Patriots may be able to exploit is the Chargers' woes when covering tight ends. Los Angeles allows a passer rating of 111.6 when quarterbacks throw to tight ends. That ranks 24th in the entire NFL and bodes well for New England tight end Hunter Henry. The 6-foot-5, 249-pound threat has gone Over 41.5 receiving yards in nine of 17 games this season, including five of the last seven games. He leads the team in receiving touchdowns (seven) and ranks second behind only Stefon Diggs in targets (87), receptions (60) and receiving yards (768). He could have a big day if Maye emphasizes short and intermediate routes in his postseason debut.