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The 2025 NFL season marked New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye's arrival on the scene as a top-level QB. The young MVP candidate will now get his first taste of the playoffs when the Patriots host Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football during Super Wild Card Weekend. Jim Harbaugh's club has experience on its side, and while the Chargers have an inferior record (11-6 to New England's 14-3), they played a far tougher schedule. 

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Chargers vs. Patriots odds from DraftKings, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. The Patriots are -197 money line favorites (wager $197 to win $100), while the Chargers are +163 underdogs. Before making any Chargers vs. Patriots picks of your own, you have to see the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. 

Where to watch Chargers vs. Patriots on Sunday

When: Sunday, Jan. 11
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Stream: Fubo  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Chargers vs. Patriots betting preview

Odds: Patriots -3.5, over/under 44.5

Los Angeles went 9-8 against the spread in the regular season and finished 10-7 to the Under. New England was 12-5 ATS and 11-6 to the Over. The Chargers have recorded four Unders in their last five games. The Patriots have covered four of their last five and have produced five straight Overs.

Chargers vs. Patriots SGP

  • Patriots -3.5
  • TreVeyon Henderson anytime touchdown scorer
  • Justin Herbert Under 31.5 passing attempts

Bet it at DraftKings:

Model's Chargers vs. Patriots score prediction, picks

Los Angeles wins in just 37% of the model's simulations, but they offer some money line betting value at that rate. The Patriots cover in 55% of the simulations, while the Over hits roughly 50% of the time. 

Chargers vs. Patriots score prediction: Patriots 27, Chargers 21

Want more NFL playoffs picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every NFL playoffs game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.