Chiefs could be eliminated from NFL playoff contention in Week 15: Here's how it could happen

The Kansas City Chiefs have never missed the playoffs during Patrick Mahomes' career, but that run is in danger of ending this season and it could happen as soon as Week 15. 

The 6-7 Chiefs are on the cusp of playoff elimination and there are several scenarios that could see them knocked out on Sunday. The good news for the Chiefs is that a lot would have to happen for them to be eliminated this week and it would start with a loss to the Chargers, a game where Kansas City is currently favored by 4.5 points. 

Let's take a look at the three most likely elimination scenarios for Kansas City (via Joe Ferraira):  

1. Chiefs loss + Jaguars win (over Jets) + Bills win (over Patriots) + Texans win (over Cardinals)
Breakdown: The Jaguars (-13.5) and Texans (-9.5) are both huge favorites on Sunday. As for the Bills, they opened as a favorite, but they're now a slight 1.5-point underdog to the Patriots. If the Bills want any shot at winning the AFC East, they have to beat New England, so they'll be extra motivated. If the Chiefs lose to the Chargers, this could certainly be the scenario that ends up knocking them out of playoff contention. 

Prisco's Week 15 NFL picks: Bills beat Patriots in AFC East battle, Packers knock off Broncos on road

Pete Prisco

2. Chiefs loss + Jaguars win (over Jets) + Bills win (over Patriots) + Colts win (over Seahawks)
Breakdown: The Colts just lost Daniel Jones for the season and there's a good chance they're going to be starting Philip Rivers on Sunday, who just came out of retirement after four years away. The Colts are a 13-point underdog in Seattle, so for this scenario to happen, Indy would have to pull off a big upset. 

3. Chiefs loss + Bills win (over Patriots) + Colts win (over Seahawks) + Texans win (over Cardinals)
Breakdown: Like the second scenario, this scenario also involves the Colts pulling off an upset win over the Seahawks.

There are also several other more complicated elimination scenarios -- with most of them involving at least one tie -- but these are the three that would probably have the most realistic chance of happening. 

The Chiefs' have had an unprecedented run of success with Mahomes. Since taking over the starting quarterback job in 2018, Mahomes has led them to seven straight AFC title games, five Super Bowl appearances and three Super Bowl wins. 

This year, though, the math definitely isn't working in Kansas City's favor when it comes to making the playoffs and Mahomes is very aware of that. 

"We know the chances are getting lower and lower, but I know the guys on this team are going to give everything they have every opportunity they get," Mahomes said this week. 

Although the Chiefs are on the cusp of elimination, they could also still make the playoffs and we mapped out their path here.