Chiefs' NFL playoff hopes aren't quite dead yet: Here's how fading Kansas City could still get in postseason

It took nine years, but the Kansas City Chiefs have finally been knocked out of the top spot in the AFC West. Following their loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday night, the Chiefs have officially been eliminated from winning the division title. 

Although their reign atop the AFC West is over, the Chiefs' playoff hopes aren't officially dead yet. At 6-7, the Chiefs will need quite a few things to go their way down the stretch if they want to make the postseason, which explains why our SportsLine projection is giving them just a 9.1% chance of getting in. Patrick Mahomes can do that math. 

"We know the (playoff) chances are getting lower and lower, but I know the guys on this team are going to give everything they have, every opportunity we get," Mahomes said following the loss to Houston. 

The Chiefs haven't been great this year, but if they found a way to get into the playoffs, they would instantly become the team that no one wants to play and that's mostly because Mahomes has a 9-0 record when playing in the wild card (2-0) or divisional round (7-0). 

At this point, there are a lot of things working against the Chiefs, like the fact that the Texans, Bills and Jaguars all hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over them. It also doesn't help that they have the worst conference record of any of the top 10 AFC playoff contenders. 

So what has to happen for the Chiefs to pull off a miracle playoff berth? Let's break down the most realistic scenario.

First, we're going to assume the Bills and Jaguars both get in. At 9-4, both teams just need to go 2-2 over the their final four games to guarantee that they finish ahead of Kansas City and that seems pretty likely. Also, the 8-5 Texans have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the AFC, and they only have to go 3-1 down the stretch to finish ahead of Kansas City, so we're going to give them a playoff spot, too. 

That leaves the Chiefs, Chargers, Colts, Dolphins and Ravens fighting for one spot. Let's check out the Chiefs' easiest path to the postseason: 

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Robby Kalland

Chiefs must win out

Chiefs' remaining schedule: vs. Chargers, at Titans, vs. Broncos, at Raiders
Breakdown: The biggest upside for the Chiefs down the stretch is that their two most difficult games are at home. The Chiefs have won three straight home games against the Chargers and nine straight home games against the Broncos. Not to mention, the Chiefs are 5-2 at home this year, so winning both games is certainly within the realm of possibility. If they don't slip up against the Titans or Raiders, 10-7 is definitely realistic. 

Chargers must finish 10-7 or worse

Chargers' remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Chiefs, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
Breakdown: The Chargers (8-4) currently have the fourth-most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the NFL, so it would be completely possible for them to go 2-3 or worse down the stretch. Of the Chargers' five remaining games, they HAVE to lose to the Chiefs and Broncos. The reason the Chiefs need those two specific losses is so that they can finish with the same division record (4-2) as the Chargers, which would create a tiebreaker situation that would benefit Kansas City. Of the three non-divisional games that L.A. has left, the Chiefs could still make the playoffs even if the Chargers go 2-1 against the Eagles, Texans and Cowboys. If that happens, the Chargers will finish 10-7 and they'll be tied with the Chiefs at 4-2 in the division, but Kansas City will finish ahead of L.A. due to the common games tiebreaker. 

What Chiefs need from Colts, Dolphins and Ravens

Breakdown: The Colts (8-5) finishing at 9-8 or worse would be the best-case scenario for Kansas City and that's certainly possible because Indy has the most difficult remaining strength of schedule in the NFL with games against the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars and Texans. With Daniel Jones done for the year, it's hard to see Indy winning any of those, but even if the Colts manage to win one, the Chiefs would still be in good shape. 

The Dolphins and Ravens are both 6-7, so they'd have to win out to get to 10-7, which doesn't seem likely. The Ravens close the season with the Bengals, Packers, Patriots and Steelers, and it's hard to see them running the table there. As for the Dolphins, they have the Steelers, Bengals, Buccaneers and Patriots. The Dolphins have been hot, but they still haven't won a game when it's under 40 degrees with Tua Tagovailoa, which could make things difficult since they travel to Pittsburgh and New England over the final four weeks. 

When it comes to tiebreakers, the Chiefs are in a mostly good spot with these three teams. They have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both the Colts and Ravens, but the problem is that if THREE teams get to 10-7, then the head-to-head tiebreaker is thrown out and conference record comes in. If the Chiefs win out, they'd be 7-5 in the AFC, which would put them ahead of the other three teams assuming Indy loses to the Jaguars and Texans (That would drop the Colts to 6-6 in the AFC). 

The Chiefs winning out might be the most improbable part of this path, but as you can see, there is still a somewhat plausible path for Kansas City to make the playoffs. 

Here's what the AFC standings would look like if everything goes Kansas City's way: 

AFC playoffs

1. Patriots (14-3)
2. Broncos (13-4)
3. Texans (12-5)
4. Steelers (9-8)
5. Bills (12-5)
6. Jaguars (12-5)
7. Chiefs (10-7)

Even if the Jaguars win the AFC South, that wouldn't impact things here. The Ravens could also win the AFC North and that wouldn't impact the Chiefs unless they somehow finished in a tie with the Steelers at 10-7, but as we noted above, it seems highly unlikely that the Ravens will win out. 

If the Chiefs do miss the postseason, it will mark the first time in Mahomes' career that his team has missed the playoffs.