Chiefs vs. Texans prediction, odds, time: NFL Week 14 'Sunday Night Football' picks from proven model

AFC playoff hopefuls will look to improve their postseason chances on 'Sunday Night Football' when the Houston Texans visit the Kansas City Chiefs. Entering NFL Week 14, Kansas City (6-6) is the 10th seed in the conference after losing three of its last four, including a Thanksgiving Day defeat to Dallas, 31-28. Houston (7-5) is the No. 8 seed but has won four in a row, including a 20-16 victory over Indianapolis last Sunday. This will be the first Chiefs game since Missouri sports betting launched on Dec. 1, and there are a number of Missouri sportsbook promos available to residents of the state.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs have won each of the last five meetings, including a Jan. 2025 playoff victory. The latest Texans vs. Chiefs odds have Kansas City as 3.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 41.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Chiefs vs. Texans picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

Missouri sports betting is now live. New users in Missouri can target the DraftKings Missouri promo code, which offers $300 in bonus bets after an initial $5 wager. If you're in Missouri, click here to claim your bonus:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 14 on a 49-33 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Chiefs. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the football odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Texans:

Why the Texans can cover

These teams are going in opposite directions as Houston has won four straight, while Kansas City has lost three of four outright, while losing all four of those versus the spread. Three of the teams that Houston defeated during its win streak are current AFC playoff squads in Jacksonville, Buffalo and Indianapolis. Meanwhile, the single best unit on the field come Sunday, and arguably in all of the NFL, is Houston's defense. It has allowed both the fewest points and fewest yards, and the Texans are the only NFL team which hasn't allowed more touchdown passes than it has defensive interceptions. Just five teams have more sacks than Houston (34), and it gets to face a Chiefs squad that's allowed three-plus sacks in five straight games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Chiefs can cover

One can't ignore Kansas City's five straight wins over Houston, with the four of those at home all coming by at least eight points. This year's Chiefs have balance, as one of six teams to rank in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense, while Houston has the No. 21 scoring offense. Kansas City is also extremely efficient, as it's committed the second-fewest turnovers, and Patrick Mahomes is having one of his finest seasons. He ranks second in the league in QBR, third in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns. Mahomes has also carved up the Texans like no other over his career as across six games versus Houston, the two-time MVP owns a 15:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Missouri sports betting is now live. New users in Missouri can check out the latest FanDuel Missouri promo code and get $300 in bonus bets after making a $5 wager. Click here to claim your FanDuel bonus:

How to make Chiefs vs. Texans picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Texans vs. Chiefs 10,000 times and is going Under on the total, projecting 41 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Chiefs vs. Texans, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Chiefs spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up well over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.