Colts seeking long-term deal with Daniel Jones with franchise tag deadline looming

The going rate for Indianapolis Colts' peace of mind is about $6 million these days.

That's the difference between the non-exclusive franchise tag for the quarterback and the seldom used transition tag, and the Colts have until Tuesday afternoon to make their decision.

The Colts and quarterback Daniel Jones are still trying to come to an agreement on a long-term contract before the 4 p.m. ET Tuesday tag deadline, sources tell CBS Sports. Without a deal in place, the Colts would have to tag Jones to ensure the ability to continue negotiating with him before the start of unrestricted free agency.

The franchise tag would virtually lock Jones into Indianapolis for 2026, but the transition tag opens the door for another team to get him from Indy.

The non-exclusive franchise tag is set at $43.895 million for Jones. That's a big number for the Colts to hold on the cap, and it would mean wide receiver Alec Pierce would likely test free agency next week. Because teams are loath to negotiate deals for competitors, and because it's illogical for a club to trade two first-round picks for a quarterback coming off an Achilles injury like Jones, it is extremely unlikely any team would attempt to wrest Jones away from Indianapolis on the franchise tag.

The transition tag comes in at $37.833 million. It would give Indy $6 million more to work with ahead of free agency and would help the team in retaining Pierce. But the transition tag would also allow teams to hammer out a contract for Jones that would not require any draft-pick compensation. The Colts would still be able to match any offer sheet Jones gets, but a team could use the time to put together a deal Indy would not be able to match for any given reason. If, after five days, the Colts did not match the offer sheet, Jones would go to the other team and the Colts would be left with no viable starting quarterback option in Week 1.

What's more, the offer from another team could come at any point between the issuance of the transition tag and the third week of July. So, in theory, this could dangle over Indy's heads for months.

One league source believes the Colts are taking a calculated risk if they use the transition tag on Jones. The former Giants quarterback wouldn't sign an offer sheet from just anywhere -- think the Jets -- and teams like the Cardinals and Dolphins may not have the money to get a deal done with Jones. On top of all that, teams may be wary of looking to lock up a quarterback they don't know coming off a major injury.

But the Minnesota Vikings are lurking. Multiple sources have indicated the Vikings are closely monitoring the situation with Indy and Jones. While the Vikings don't have the cap space right now and would need some cap gymnastics to clear enough space to bring him into the fold, the belief is that the Vikings could shift into gear after Tuesday's deadline if the Colts don't issue a tag on Jones.

Jones spent part of the 2024 season with the Vikings after getting his release from the Giants. Minnesota is in the market for a veteran quarterback after a bad year from former No. 10 overall pick J.J. McCarthy, and there's mutual respect between Jones and Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell.

Sources have indicated for months that it was no guarantee Jones would return to Indianapolis. The quarterback enjoys the coaching staff, and the continuity with the staff in this offseason helped. But both GM Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen figure to enter the 2026 season on the hot seat, while O'Connell is on much firmer footing in Minnesota.

There is no obvious backup plan in Indianapolis if the Colts lose Jones. Anthony Richardson, the former franchise QB, is hoping for a fresh start elsewhere, and league sources expect the Colts to get no more than a fifth-round pick back wherever they send Richardson.

Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa are expected to be released in the coming days, and teams could sign either player for the veteran minimum. It is unclear whether the Raiders would part with Geno Smith, and a league source told CBS Sports last week they could see Kirk Cousins taking him time to decide on a landing spot rather than signing immediately at the start of free agency.

The Tuesday afternoon deadline is shaping up to be one of the most consequential time periods in recent Colts history.