Andrew Luck has squared off with the New England Patriots three times in his three seasons in the league. He has faced them twice in the regular season (2012 and '14) and once in the playoffs (2013). The Colts are 0-3 in those games, and it would be putting it kindly to say that Luck has struggled against Bill Belichick's defense.
| Luck vs. Patriots Defense | |||||||||
| Year | Result | Comp | Att | Comp % | Yards | YPA | TD | INT | QB Rating |
| 2012 | 59-24 L | 27 | 50 | 54.0% | 334 | 6.64 | 2 | 3 | 63.2 |
| 2013* | 43-22 L | 20 | 41 | 48.8% | 331 | 8.07 | 2 | 4 | 53.0 |
| 2014 | 42-20 L | 23 | 39 | 59.0% | 303 | 7.77 | 2 | 1 | 90.0 |
| Total | 144-66 L | 70 | 130 | 53.8% | 968 | 7.45 | 6 | 8 | 67.7 |
Needless to say, that's not the type of performance we're used to getting out of Luck in his short time in the NFL. With the exception of yards per attempt, all of his numbers against New England are significantly worse than his career averages. Obviously, the defensive struggles for the Colts in those games have been even greater, but that just underscores the importance of Luck bouncing back with a good performance against the Patriots' defense.
Luck's major struggles vs. New England have come against the blitz, which is odd because that is usually one of his biggest strengths. Throughout his career, Luck has completed 56.4 percent of his passes for 7.4 yards per attempt with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions against the blitz, good for an 89.6 quarterback rating. In three games against New England, though, Luck's numbers against the blitz pale in comparison. He's 15 of 31 (48.4 percent) for 180 yards (5.8 per attempt), a touchdown and two interceptions, which equates to a 50.5 quarterback rating.
New England's pressure has forced Luck to hang onto the ball for longer than he usually likes. For his career, Luck is a significantly better passer when he's able to get the ball out quickly, completing 64.7 percent of his passes when he throws in 2.5 seconds or less compared to only 53.1 percent when he holds the ball for 2.6 seconds or more. The ability to read the blitz and deliver the ball quickly and on target will be key. This will be especially important against New England's A-gap blitz with Jamie Collins, because Indianapolis' pass-blocking is weakest inside -- their guards and centers allowed a ton of pressure this season. That unheralded offensive line, though, held up beautifully against Denver's vaunted pass rush last week. Luck wasn't sacked a single time in the divisional round. Coming up with a similar performance against the Pats would be a huge help to Luck.
If not, though, look for Luck to go to some quick-game stuff. Quick passes usually mean hot routes like slants, hitches or fades, but it could also mean working the tight ends on pop passes and curls over the middle. Luckily for Indianapolis, that's the area of pass defense where the Patriots have struggled the most this season. According to Football Outsiders, the Pats ranked 30th in DVOA on passes to tight ends, allowing 65.6 yards per game -- only Arizona at 66.2 allowed more.
The Colts were without tight end Dwayne Allen for most of this season's first matchup against the Patriots because he left the game with an injury. Allen has seven catches for 60 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs so far, and he played a big role in a bunch of Colts wins throughout the season. Because he's the better pass-catcher of Indianapolis' two tight ends, that was a fairly significant loss, even if Coby Fleener wound up having a big game. T.Y. Hilton was held in check and the Colts' running game was a disaster without their two-tight-end sets. Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 4 rushing yards on 13 carries. Dan Herron has since supplanted them as the starter for the Colts, and that should help here as well.
It will be interesting to watch how New England deploys its cornerbacks throughout this game. In the Week 11 matchup, they didn't seem to be shadowing any receivers on a full-time basis. Darrelle Revis saw some time on both Hilton and Reggie Wayne, while Brandon Browner covered everyone from Hilton to Fleener and Kyle Arrington moved around from Hilton to Wayne as well.
Wayne was the most likely of Indianapolis' receivers to bump down into the slot when they went three wide for most of the season, but lately Hilton has been the guy to do that. While Revis posted the best opponent's quarterback rating in the league when covering out of the slot this season, the Pats in the past five games have given at least 30 slot snaps to five different players, indicating they'll likely mix up their coverages no matter who lines up there for the Colts.
The Indianapolis defense has played well in its two playoff games so far, but the New England offense is a different animal from Cincinnati without A.J. Green and Jermaine Gresham or the Denver offense with a clearly hobbled Peyton Manning. It's reasonable to expect the Colts to put forth another solid defensive performance, but not all that reasonable to expect them to hold Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and the rest in check like they did to the Bengals and Broncos. It'll be up to Luck to match Brady shot-for-shot. So far he hasn't been up to the task against Bill Belichick's defense, but that could all change come Sunday.
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