Colts vs. Jaguars prediction: Concerns over the extent of Daniel Jones' injury leads to backing Jacksonville

We have another AFC South showdown on tap, as Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars host Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts in Week 14. The Jaguars are coming off a 25-3 beatdown of the 1-11 Tennessee Titans, while the Colts fell to the Houston Texans on their home field, 20-16.

The importance of this matchup cannot be overstated. The Colts and Jaguars are both atop the AFC South at 8-4, although Jacksonville owns the tiebreaker in the division due to its higher win percentage in common games. Indy appears to be trending downwards. Once 7-1 and looking like the favorites in the AFC, Shane Steichen's squad has now lost three out of their last four games.

We could look back at this matchup as the moment we learned who was going to win the AFC South. Let's break down this divisional showdown, but first, here's how you can watch the game.

Where to watch Colts vs. Jaguars live

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 7 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: EverBank Stadium -- Jacksonville, Florida
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Odds: Colts -1.5, O/U 47.5 (via FanDuel)

Colts vs. Jaguars: Need to know

• How's Daniel Jones' mobility? As you know by now, the Colts quarterback is playing through a fracture in his fibula. Last week against the Texans, Jones made some nice throws, but noticeably was not as mobile as usual. He registered zero scrambles, according to PFF, making it the first game since Week 5 Jones did not scramble. Pressure Jones and contain Jonathan Taylor. That's how the Jaguars can win this game. 
• Sauce Gardner's will not dress. The Colts' trade-deadline addition is week-to-week with a calf strain suffered last Sunday, and will not suit up this week. It's concerning long-term, because calf strains can linger. 
• Which Colts squad will show? You're going to have to score points if you want to beat the Colts. Indianapolis is the NFL leader in points per game entering Week 14 with 29.8. However, the Colts are averaging 21.8 points per contest over the last four games. 
• Jaguars have the momentum. While the Colts are trending downwards, you could make the argument the Jaguars are trending upwards. They have won three games in a row following the largest blown lead in team history (19 points), which came against the Texans in Houston. Jacksonville dominated Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11, found a way to win against the Arizona Cardinals in overtime then destroyed the Titans last Sunday. 
• Jacksonville needs to mind their dirty laundry. Don't put the game in the ref's hands! Did you know the Jaguars lead the NFL in penalties with 104? That's something to watch on Sunday. 

Colts vs. Jaguars prediction, pick

I find it fascinating that the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 -- going 0-9 during this stretch. The Colts have not looked fantastic as of late, and you have to wonder how much Jones' fibula injury is affecting him. The Jaguars defense is not the Texans defense, but this same unit destroyed Herbert and the Chargers in Jacksonville, 35-6, a couple weeks ago. You never know what you're going to get with Lawrence, but I'll take Jacksonville in an upset. Pick: Jaguars +1.5, Over 47.5