Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
If the newsletter got to you late today, it's my fault. I got delayed because I spent my entire morning writing an email to the NFL asking them NOT TO SCHEDULE ANYMORE SIMULTANEOUS DOUBLEHEADERS. I love the Monday doubleheader where one game starts at 7 p.m. ET and one game started at 10 p.m. ET, but I am not a fan of the current setup.
Anyway, now that I have that complaint out of the way, I hope you didn't fall asleep during the Bills' blowout win over the Jaguars because the late game on Monday ended up being one of the wildest games in NFL history. Not only did the Commanders upset the Bengals, but they did it in a game that featured ZERO punts and ZERO turnovers. We'll let you know how rare that is in today's newsletter, plus, we'll be breaking down Prisco's Power Rankings.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Monday night grades: Commanders pull off upset and Bills destroy Jaguars
We hand out grades for every game each week and that includes the two games that went down on Monday night. Let's check out the grades from the doubleheader:
Bills 47-10 over Jaguars (Click here for our full recap)
- Jaguars takeaway: The Jaguars might have a Trevor Lawrence problem. Lawrence wasn't the reason the Jags lost, but he definitely didn't help things. In his fourth year, Lawrence should now be looking like a polished veteran, but instead, he looked like an inexperienced rookie, especially in the first half when he completed just 45.6% of his passes for 59 yards with an interception. The Jags just invested $275 million in Lawrence, and they can't like what they see so far out of a QB who has now lost eight straight starts. Besides Lawrence, the Jaguars defense was also horrendous. This was just a poor all-around effort, and the Jaguars suddenly look like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Grade: F
- Bills takeaway: The Bills had this game put away by halftime, and that's mainly because Josh Allen played like a man possessed. The Bills QB threw for 247 yards and four touchdowns in the FIRST HALF on his way to finishing with 307 total yards in the game. Allen seems to have built a solid connection with Khalil Shakir, who caught six passes for 72 yards and a TD. The Bills defense played almost as well as Allen: The unit completely shut down the Jaguars offense and Damar Hamlin even picked up his first career interception. The season is only three weeks old, but it feels like the Bills are the best team in the NFL so far. Grade: A+
The Jaguars lost so badly that Doug Pederson wouldn't even commit to Trevor Lawrence being the team's starting QB going forward. The Jaguars coach said 'everything is on the table' when it comes to making changes in Jacksonville. You can read his full comments here.
Commanders 38-33 over Bengals (Click here for our full recap)
- Commanders takeaway: Jayden Daniels had his breakout game, and he did it with the national spotlight on him. The Commanders rookie had a nearly perfect night, completing 91.3% of his passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns. Daniels made clutch throw after clutch throw, including a game-sealing 27-yard TD to Terry McLaurin on a third-and-7 late in the fourth quarter. Including that TD, McLaurin caught four passes for 100 yards. Head coach Dan Quinn showed confidence in his rookie by going for it three times on fourth down and Daniels made that confidence pay off by converting all three attempts. The Commanders defense got lit up for more than 400 yards, but no one in Washington is going to remember that after the night that Daniels had. The rookie QB looks to be the real deal. Grade: A
- Bengals takeaway: The Bengals offense played its best game of the season, but that effort went to waste, because the defense couldn't stop Jayden Daniels. The rookie QB diced up a Bengals defense that simply had no answers for anything he did. The Commanders didn't punt a single time in the game, and that's mostly because the Bengals couldn't get them off the field with Washington going a combined 8 of 12 on third- and fourth-down conversions. Although the defense was bad, the offense kept the Bengals in this game with an impressive 436-yard performance, but even the offense had its struggles. The Bengals had two separate possessions in the first half that got inside Washington's 15-yard line, but they didn't get a TD on either drive. At 0-2, it wasn't time to panic, but at 0-3, it might be time to start panicking in Cincinnati. Grade: C
To make matters worse for the Bengals, they also lost right tackle Trent Brown to a season-ending injury.
As for the other 28 grades that we handed out in Week 3, you can check those out by clicking here.
2. Commanders and Bengals combine to make NFL history
The NFL has existed for 104 years, and in that time, no one has ever seen a game like the one we got on Monday night in Cincinnati.
The Bengals and Commanders combined to make some NFL history and we're going to go over that right now.
- No punts or turnovers in the game. This game marked the first time in at least 84 years that both teams in a game finished with zero punts AND zero turnovers. Detailed records only go back to 1940, so it's very possible that this was the first game in NFL history to feature zero punts and zero turnovers.
- Commanders make their own history. This was actually the second straight game where the Commanders didn't punt or have a turnover, which makes them the first team since at least 1966 to pull off that feat in consecutive games.
- Bengals make depressing history. The Bengals became the first team in NFL history to lose a game where they scored at least 31 points without a punt or a turnover. According to Pro Football Reference, NFL teams were 126-0 in that situation since 1920, but they're now 127-1 thanks to the Bengals' loss (Since the Commanders also scored at least 31 points with zero punts and zero turnovers, that's where the extra win comes from to get from 126 to 127).
- Seventh no-punt game in NFL history. Two teams making it through an entire game without punting is almost unheard of. The Commanders-Bengals game marked just the seventh time in NFL history that there's been a game with no punts. Two of the prior games only featured one turnover, which was the closest the NFL had come to seeing a no-punt, no-turnover game over the past 84 years. The last no-punt game actually came last season between the Cowboys and Seahawks.
It truly was a wild game for the ages.
3. Prisco's Week 4 Power Rankings: Steelers crack top five with 3-0 start
For the fourth straight week, Prisco's Power Rankings have been turned upside down. The NFL thrives on parity and we're getting more parity than ever this year, which is one big reason why there have been so many changes in Prisco's rankings.
Even the top five underwent some changes this week with two new teams:
- Chiefs (Same as last week)
- Bills (Same as last week)
- Vikings (Up two from last week)
- Seahawks (Up three from last week)
- Steelers (Up five from last week)
I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings:
- The biggest jump this week went to the Washington Commanders. After watching Jayden Daniels lead them to a win over the Bengals on Monday night, Prisco moved them up 12 spots from 29th to 17th. With Daniels under center, the Commanders have gone TWO straight games without punting, which is wild when you consider that Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Peyton Manning have only combined to do that twice ever.
- The biggest jump in the AFC went to the Jets. After being hesitant to buy into the Aaron Rodgers hype, it looks like Prisco is fully on the Jets' bandwagon now. He moved them up nine spots from 20th to 11th following their Week 3 win over the Patriots.
- The biggest drop in the rankings went to the Las Vegas Raiders. After shocking the Ravens in Week 2, it looked like the Raiders might actually be good this year, but then they went and got blown out by the Panthers. Following that loss, Prisco dropped them 16 spots from 14th to 30th.
- The biggest drop in the NFC went to the 49ers. After watching them blow a double-digit lead to the Rams on Sunday, Prisco dropped them seven spots from eighth down to 15th.
- Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL, and I have some big news here: For the first time in nearly 12 months, the Panthers aren't at the bottom. Thanks to Andy Dalton, the Panthers crushed the Raiders 36-22, which forced Prisco to move them up this week from 32nd to 29th. With Carolina out of the cellar, the title of worst team in the NFL now belongs to the Tennessee Titans.
If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 4 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything.
4. One thing we learned about each team in Week 3
Every week, we seem to learn something new about each NFL team. For instance, I thought the Bengals might be good this season, but in Week 3, I learned that their defense is so bad that I'm already in full panic mode about picking them to go to the Super Bowl.
Anyway, Cody Benjamin also learned quite a few things from Week 3. He learned one thing from each team and we're going to take a look at few of the things he learned below:
- Panthers: Andy Dalton still has it. "And by 'it,' we mean more-than-competent passing skills. His vision was an apparent upgrade on Bryce Young, unlocking Diontae Johnson and finally getting this team a 'W' against Las Vegas."
- Cowboys: Brandon Aubrey is their MVP. "Dak Prescott put forth a valiant final-quarter effort against Baltimore, but is anyone more trustworthy on this loaded roster right now than the kicker? His range genuinely seems limitless."
- Steelers: The QB job is Justin Fields' to lose. "How can it not be now? The Steelers are surprisingly 3-0 mostly due to their defense, but the ex-Bears quarterback has done everything Mike Tomlin, Arthur Smith and Co. have asked so far."
Cody came up with one thing he learned about each of the 32 teams, and if you want to see his full list, you can do that here.
5. Breech's Week 4 NFL picks: Bills lose their first game, Kirk Cousins outduels Derek Carr
I'm not sure how it happened, but Week 3 in the NFL turned into the curse of Andy Dalton. In his first start of the season, Dalton helped the Panthers beat up on the Raiders. So where does the curse come in? Although Dalton won, all his former teams lost. Dalton has spent time with the Bengals, Bears, Saints and Cowboys and those teams combined to go 0-4.
I might have to take the Dalton curse into account this week with my picks.
Anyway, as always, this newsletter will feature three of my picks, and then if you feel like reading the rest of them, you can click through here and check them out.
With that in mind, here are three of my main picks for the week, starting with the Thursday night game in New York:
- Cowboys (-4.5) at Giants: No matter how bad the Cowboys are playing, they always figure out a way to beat the Giants. Dak Prescott has a 12-2 career record against the Giants and this feels like a get-right game for a Cowboys team that has been blown out in each of the past two weeks. PICK: Cowboys 27-20 over Giants
- Saints at Falcons (-1.5): When I look at Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr, it feels like they were created in the same QB factory, but Cousins seems like a souped-up version of Carr and I don't think Carr can beat a souped-up version of himself. PICK: Falcons 26-23
- Bills at Ravens (-2.5): It took three weeks, but the Ravens have finally figured out how to win games: They just need to run the ball. The Ravens ran the ball on 45 of their 60 plays against the Cowboys in Week 3 and I won't be surprised if they do something similar this week. If the Ravens can run the ball, that will burn the clock while keeping Josh Allen off the field. The Ravens will be right back in the thick of things in the AFC with a win and I think they get that win. PICK: Ravens 23-20 over Bills
Once again, to check out the rest of my picks for Week 4, be sure to click here.
6. Extra points: Injury bug bites the 49ers hard
It was a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- 49ers dealing with multiple injury issues. The 49ers are already dealing with multiple injuries this year and now, they're adding Brock Purdy to the injury report. The QB is dealing with a back issue, but it's not clear how serious it is. The 49ers have also lost Javon Kinlaw for the season after he suffered a partially torn triceps in Week 3. Also, the Christian McCaffrey injury took a wild twist over the weekend with the star running back now headed to Germany to seek a special treatment for his Achilles tendinitis. You can check out our full update on the 49ers' injury situation here.
- Derwin James hit with one-game suspension. The Chargers safety has been suspended for this week's game against the Chiefs. James was punished for making "repeated violations of playing rules intended to protect the health and safety of players, including during Sunday's game against the Steelers."
- Chargers get good news and bad news on the injury front. Not only will James be out this week but the Chargers will also likely be missing their two starting tackles with Rashawn Slater (pectoral) and Joe Alt (MCL sprain) both expected to be sidelined. The only good news for the Chargers is that Justin Herbert's X-rays came back negative on his ankle, which could open the door for him to play this week.
- Ravens sign former Pro Bowler. The Ravens are bringing back veteran pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue. The 29-year-old played nine games for the Ravens in 2020, and now, he'll be making a return to Baltimore after signing with the team's practice squad.
- Brett Favre says he has Parkinson's disease. The Hall of Fame quarterback recently revealed that he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease. Favre shared the information while giving Congressional testimony in relation to his ongoing welfare fraud issue in Mississippi.
