For the final game of Week 14, two of the NFL's most disappointing teams will square off as the Dallas Cowboys host the Cincinnati Bengals on "Monday Night Football."
The Cowboys have won back-to-back games, but even those wins have only brought the to 5-7 after they had lost each of their previous five. They have not played well on either side of the ball all season, and it would be obvious that they were playing out the string on the Mike McCarthy era if only Jerry Jones (and many of the players on the team) would stop insisting otherwise.
The Bengals are somehow in even worse shape at just 4-8, having lost three consecutive one-score games to playoff contenders. Just one of their eight losses was by more than seven points, but they are now in a position where they likely have to win out and get a ton of help if they want to make a last-ditch run at a postseason berth.
Which of these two teams will emerge with a win? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
Cowboys vs. Bengals where to watch
Date: Monday, Dec. 9 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Channel: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Or alternate "The Simpsons'' broadcast
Follow: CBS Sports App
Betting odds: Bengals -5.5, O/U 49.5 (via Caesars Sportsbook)
When the Bengals have the ball
It's really unfortunate that Cincinnati's defense is so bad, because the offense really has played exceptional football, for the most part.
Joe Burrow leads the league in passing touchdowns and passing yards per game. He's working on career-best marks in passer rating, QBR, touchdown rate, interception rate and success rate, and he's even had arguably the best rushing season of his career on a per-carry basis.
Ja'Marr Chase is absolutely dunking on the entire league, ripping off a career-best 72.5% catch rate and career-best 95.2 receiving yards per game. He has six touchdown grabs in Cincy's last three games, all of which have turned into losses. When Tee Higgins has been healthy, he's also been incredible. He's working on career highs in catches and yards per game, and he's got five touchdown grabs in only seven contests. His career high for a full season is seven scores.
Since Chase Brown took over as the full time back following Zack Moss' injury, he's been absurd: He has 96 touches for 494 yards and three touchdowns in four games. (All other Bengals running backs combined have one touch in those four games.) And that's while playing against the Ravens, Chargers and Steelers in the last three. Those might be the three best run defenses in the AFC.
In the Cowboys, the Bengals get an opponent that should allow them to find success in any way they want. Dallas has the NFL's worst run defense. The Cowboys have yielded 4.9 yards per carry and an otherworldly 21 scores on the ground. They aren't much better against the pass; opponents just haven't had to throw the ball very often. If Trevon Diggs has to sit (he's questionable), then one of Chase and Higgins is going to have a major matchup advantage all night.
Unless Micah Parsons and Demarvion Overshown wreck the game by themselves (which is admittedly possible), the Bengals should have no trouble moving the ball up and down the field with ease.
When the Cowboys have the ball
The Dallas offense has not exactly been a well-oiled machine throughout this season, and it could be pretty shorthanded more than usual on Monday night. Cooper Rush remains the starter under center. Zack Martin was placed on injured reserve. Tyler Guyton is listed as questionable. CeeDee Lamb was removed from the final injury report, but has been banged up for weeks.
Luckily, the Cowboys are about to face arguably the worst defense in the NFL. Cincinnati ranks 28th in yards allowed and 31st in points allowed, 23rd in EPA per play against the pass and 29th against the run. The Bengals have allowed opponents to complete 65.2% of passes at an average of 7.4 yards per attempt, with 22 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. They've gotten a sack on just 4.9% of opponent dropbacks and yielded an explosive gain on 8.5%. They've allowed a first down on 28.5% of opponent rushing attempts, the third-worst mark in the league.
The operative question, of course, is whether this version of the Cowboys offense can take enough advantage of Cincinnati's defensive shortcomings, to make this a competitive game. The answer to that question is probably, "no."
Rush has had exactly one game where he cleared even 6.5 yards per attempt. He's completed less than 60% of his passes in four of five starts and five of six games where he saw extended playing time. He's only been intercepted twice, but he's also had three interceptable passes dropped. The leaguewide dropped interception rate is 28.1% and Rush's is 60%. He puts the ball up for grabs more often than it seems on the surface.
CeeDee Lamb can of course practically toy with any defensive back -- and especially the ones playing for Cincinnati. but Lamb hasn't exceeded 7.8 yards per target in any game Rush has played, and has been below 6 yards per target in three of them. For context, he was over 8.4 yards per target in each of his previous four seasons and at 9.7 per target last year.
Dallas' primary hope here is that Rico Dowdle finds enough success on the ground to control the game. But with the state of the offensive line in front of him, that seems fairly unlikely. And if the defense yields as much consistent success to the Bengals' offense as we expect, there might not be many chances for Dowdle to do that, anyway.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Cowboys 17
Dallas has won two in a row, but hasn't had to deal with an offense operating like Cincinnati's is at the moment. Just about everyone can move the ball on the Bengals, but the Cowboys don't have the firepower to keep up with Joe Burrow and Co. at the moment.
Bonus: SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein, who is on a 28-10 roll on Cowboys picks, has released his best bets for the Week 14 Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys matchup. Harstein is leaning the Over. To see which side he's backing, head on over to SportsLine.