FRISCO, Texas -- It's only Week 4, but this week's "Thursday Night Football" matchup between the Dallas Cowboys (1-2) and the New York Giants (1-2) possesses high stakes.
The winner will improve to 2-2 and have the ability to say with a straight face that they still have all of their goals in front of them in 2024. The loser, on the other hand, will fall to 1-3, last place in the NFC East and might as well get started early on their 2025 NFL Draft preparations.
This matchup lately has been owned by the Cowboys, winners in 13 of the last 14 against the Giants, including a perfect 12-0 in quarterback Dak Prescott's last 12 starts against the G-Men. That's tied for the fourth-most consecutive wins by a quarterback against a single opponent since at least 1950 with the only longer streaks belonging to Miami Dolphins Hall of Famer Bob Griese (17 wins in a row against the Bills), San Francisco 49ers Hall of Famer Steve Young (13 wins in a row against the Rams) and the GOAT Tom Brady (13 wins in a row against the Bills).
Dak Prescott career vs. Giants
W-L | 12-2* |
Pass YPG | 263.9 |
Pass Yards/Attempt | 7.9 |
TD-INT | 27-8 |
Passer Rating | 100.9 |
* Won 12 consecutive starts (T-fourth-most in a row vs. a single team since at least 1950)
On the flip side, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has been riding the struggle bus of late at MetLife Stadium. He's thrown for zero touchdowns and six interceptions in his last three home games, all losses.
Let's break down into Thursday's matchup and project a victor.
All NFL odds are via SportsLine Consensus.
Where to watch
Date: Thursday, Sept. 26 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
Stream: Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Cowboys -5.5; O/U 45.5
When the Cowboys have the ball
Sure, Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has spoken about wanting to boost this team's rushing attempts up from the 62 they have had this season, the third-fewest in the NFL, in order to establish the run. He also wants to see what he has in his running back by committee of undrafted veteran Rico Dowdle, late career Ezekiel Elliott and 2023 sixth-round pick Deuce Vaughn.
In the small sample size we have in 2024, it's not pretty. Dallas is averaging 73.7 rushing yards per game, the third-fewest in the NFL, on three yards per carry, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. What will actually actually spark the offense is getting 2023 First-Team All-Pro CeeDee Lamb going after a disastrous Week 3 versus the Baltimore Ravens. A fumble in the red zone, demonstrative conversations with teammates and coaches and drops all contributed to a crazy day that culminated with him skipping out on his postgame media availability. Lamb knows it's time to get his act together and fast, which is massive for Dallas.
"Obviously I've got to be truthful to myself, and I played a part in that loss," Lamb said on Tuesday. "A big part, honestly. Nor did body language nor attitude, approaching the situation, help the situation or the outcome of the game."
He's made his amends with quarterback Dak Prescott following a heated chat with him and right guard Zack Martin on the sideline after he lost his temper following a holding penalty by first-round rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton that erased an end zone pass interference penalty he drew right before halftime.
"We understand urgency," Lamb said. "That's between us, we talk about it every day, every night. Our relationship, if anything gotten stronger, don't let what's out there fool you. We're brothers to the end. We know that we all we got, and I tip my hat off to him. I got the utmost respect for him, and I look at him as a brother. So that with that being said, everything is gonna come out: the energy, the passion, the love, the fight. You're going to make up in the end. No craziness now."
McCarthy said Lamb will remain "a primary focal point" for his offense, and Thursday night could be an ideal matchup to get back in gear. Giants starting nickel corner Dru Phillips was ruled out on Wednesday with a calf injury, which is notable considering Lamb has led the NFL in slot receiving yards in the last two seasons. Cornerback Adoree Jackson is also out with a calf injury. Lamb could feast in primetime this week.
"Granted, it [Week 3 vs. the Ravens] was a bad game on my end. I fully take accountability in that," Lamb said. "I have no shame in that. So with that being said, I will be better in the future and it's going to be fun."
When the Giants have the ball
The Cowboys defense's strength is its pass rush. Has been since they drafted three-time All-Pro Micah Parsons 12th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft: Dallals led the NFL with a 41.4% quarterback pressure rate from 2021 to 2023.
Their team quarterback pressure rate has declined to 36.7%, the 12th-best in the NFL through three weeks thanks to a reduced 26.5% rate across losses against the New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens in Weeks 2 and 3, matchups in which Baltimore and New Orleans combined to throw 31 passes. That's the lowest amount of pass attempts against an opposing defense in the entire NFL in the last couple of weeks.
"People have to pass the ball huh?" Parsons said Tuesday. "What, I pass rush 10 times in the last two games?
In short, the Cowboys need to prove they can stop the run.
"That's pretty blatant," Parsons said. "First game, they [the Browns] dropped back 40 times [they threw 45 passes], and Weeks 2 and 3, 15 and 16 times. Unheard of football."
Opposing offenses have dialed up run plays versus the Cowboys on 51% of plays in 2024, the most in the NFL, according to NFL Pro Insights. Why? Well, Dallas is the worst run defense in football, allowing 185.7 yards per game on the ground, with a missed tackle rate of 33.9%, the second-highest in the NFL, trailing only the Los Angeles Rams' 40.6% mark. Dallas is up against it with another tough running back matchup in Week 4 with Giants running back Devin Singletary, the NFL's leader in tackles avoided with 21 in 2024.
"Yeah, super agile," Parsons said of Singletary. "He's a great guy to go against. ... It's going to be a fun matchup."
The Cowboys also have to account for New York quarterback Daniel Jones' feet since he is averaging 5.2 yards per carry on 28 carries in four games versus Dallas since 2021 for 145 yards rushing.
"Going against him the last couple of years, he always likes to run against us," Parsons said. "It's definitely going to be a nice run day just like last week."
New York will also assuredly throw the football to 2024 sixth overall pick wide receiver Malik Nabers' way over and over and over again. Nabers became the youngest wide receiver (21 years, 56 days old) in NFL history with two receiving touchdowns in a game in the Giants' 21-15 victory against the Cleveland Browns in Week 3. His three receiving touchdowns this season are tied for the most in a Giants player's first three career games since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger along with Odell Beckham Jr. (2014) and Bobby Johnson (1984).
Naturally, Nabers leads the NFL with 37 targets this season as does his team target percentage of 37.8%. His targets figure is the second-most in a player's first three games in the 21st Century, trailing only Puka Nacua's 42 through his first three games in 2023. Nabers leads or co-leads all NFL rookies through Week 3 in catches (23), receiving yards (271) and receiving touchdowns (three), while ranking in the top five in the entire league in all three metrics. He will be a challenge for Cowboys Pro Bowl cornerback Trevon Diggs.
Malik Nabers by the numbers
| NFL Rank* | ||
|---|---|---|
Targets | 37 | 1st |
Receptions | 23 | 2nd |
Receiving Yards | 271 | 5th |
Receiving TD | 3 | T-1st |
* Leads or co-leads all NFL rookies
Prediction
Nabers gets in the end zone, and Singletary breaks off a few big runs, but the Cowboys get the Prescott-to-Lamb connection back on its 2023 wavelength. That will allow Parsons and four-time Pro Bowl edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence to do what they do to best: get after opposing quarterbacks in a Dallas victory.
Predicted score: Cowboys 31-16
Bonus: SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein is on a 22-8 ATS roll on Cowboys games and we can tell you he's leaning the Over in this prime-time matchup against the Giants. Check out which side he's taking against the spread at SportsLine.