It's hard to believe, but we are already into Week 13 of the NFL season. The first game on tap pits the Dallas Cowboys against the Seattle Seahawks on "Thursday Night Football."
Dallas is coming off a destruction of division rival Washington on Thanksgiving, while the Seahawks were similarly beaten down by their own rivals, the 49ers. The Cowboys have yet to lose at home this season, defeating their opponents by an average of 29 points per game in those contests. The Seahawks began the season 2-0 o the road, but have since lost three straight away from Lumen Field.
Can the Cowboys keep their streak going, or will the Seahawks throw a wrench into the NFC playoff picture? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.
How to watch the Cowboys vs. Seahawks game
Date: Thursday, Nov. 30 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Stream the game here with Amazon Prime
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Cowboys -9; O/U 47 (via SportsLine consensus odds)
When the Seahawks have the ball
Seattle's offense comes into this game banged up, though a bit healthier than it was last week. Kenneth Walker III is again likely to sit, but Geno Smith is another week removed from his elbow/triceps injury, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett avoided the injury report entirely this week, and right tackle Abraham Lucas could play for the first time since Week 1.
Lucas' return would be a welcome one against this Cowboys defensive line, which brings elite pass-rush threats from all angles. Lucas and left tackle Charles Cross were expected to anchor the Seahawks up front, but they each missed a bunch of time and haven't played together since the opener. Seattle is still relatively weak in pass protection on the interior, but having the bookend tackles back in action together should help.
Still, this Dallas pass rush has been overwhelming opponents all season, and Dan Quinn has no compunction about moving Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, Osa Odighiwuza, and anyone else around to generate his preferred matchups. It would not be at all surprising if Quinn used Parsons and Lawrence on the inside quite often when passing situations arise on Thursday night, efforting to get them one-on-ones against the weakest part of Geno Smith's protection unit. Smith hasn't been quite as good on the move this season as he was during his breakout last year, and bringing quick pressure in his lap would complicate the Seahawks' efforts to get into their downfield passing attack.
The Cowboys have a pair of perimeter corners who match up quite well with Seattle's excellent receiver duo, as Stephon Gilmore is one of the few corners in the league with enough size and physicality to battle with DK Metcalf, and DaRon Bland can hang with the speedier Tyler Lockett. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba should have an advantage over Cowboys slot man Jourdan Lewis, though, and the Seahawks should be prepared to target him heavily over the middle of the field.
They'll need JSN, the tight ends, and/or Zach Charbonnet to create yards after the catch against a defense that doesn't generally allow all that many players to do that, though, due to the volume of speed the Cowboys can put on the field. The best way to beat them is often to run "at-you" running plays up the middle and hope you can out-physical their interior defensive line and linebackers, but the middle of Seattle's line is the weakest group on its entire offense, and a "run it early and often and all night" strategy necessitates being able to stay ahead of the chains and stopping the Dallas offense so you don't play from behind, and those seem like difficult propositions here.
When the Cowboys have the ball
There is no hotter quarterback in the NFL at the moment than Dak Prescott.
Since Week 6, Prescott leads the NFL in EPA/play, success rate, completion percentage over expected, and just about every other passing statistic. During that span, he has completed 70.5% of his passes at an outrageous average of 8.9 yards per attempt, while throwing 18 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. He's also added 106 yards and two scores on 22 carries.
According to Pro Football Focus, his 21 "big-time throws" during that stretch are four more than the next-closest player, despite playing one fewer game than each of the next two players on the list. Prescott also has the NFL's lowest turnover-worthy play rate both since Week 6 and on the season overall, per PFF. Dallas has fully pivoted away from the "run the ball and spread the ball around to everyone with short passes" strategy with which it came into the season, instead unleashing a pass-heavy, high aDOT attack that uses a lot of motion and makes a concerted effort to get the ball into the hands of its best playmakers.
On the year, Prescott checks in first in ESPN's QBR against man coverage, first against the blitz, second under pressure, second from inside the pocket, first from outside the pocket, and first on third downs. He has also been dynamite at home, where he and the Cowboys have yet to lose: 77.7% completion rate, 9.2 yards per attempt, 15 scores, and just two picks.
By any reasonable measurement, he is playing the best football of his career, and has been playing like comfortably the best quarterback in the league for a solid two months or so.
On Thursday night, Prescott gets another favorable matchup. Seattle's defense checks in 22nd in FTN's DVOA this season, and just 23rd against the pass. The Seahawks have struggled to defend the middle of the field (25th in DVOA), where Dak and the Cowboys have been attacking far more often during this recent stretch. Shifting CeeDee Lamb into the slot is always an option, and Jake Ferguson has emerged as a strong weapon up the seam and as a short-area playmaker after the catch. The strength of Seattle's pass defense is at cornerback with Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen, but Lamb can beat anybody, anywhere, and Brandin Cooks' speed can always pose problems.
The Cowboys are also set up well here because the Seahawks struggle to generate much in the way of pressure, and the Dallas offensive line is playing at its highest level in a while. If Prescott is able to comfortably sit in the pocket, he's that much more likely to pick them apart. With the line playing this well, the Cowboys are likely to find success running the ball as well -- especially considering the Seahawks' relative struggles to defend the run, the size advantage Dallas has in the trenches, and Tony Pollard's improved play as he gets further removed from the fractured leg that ended his season last year.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Seahawks 20
Dallas is so good at home, and Prescott is on such a roll right now, that it's difficult to see the Seahawks coming up with a way to stop the Cowboys at the moment. Throw in Seattle's injuries on offense and this sets up well for the Cowboys to continue their AT&T Stadium winning streak.
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 13.
