Where: Ford Field, Detroit (FieldTurf, indoors)
When: Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Falcons by 3.5
Records: Falcons (12-2; NFC South 3-2); Lions (4-10; NFC North: 0-5)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Oct. 23, 2011: Falcons 23, Lions 16; Sept. 7, 2008: Falcons 34, Lions 21. Series record: Lions lead 23-11, Falcons have won three of last four.
What matters: With two games remaining, the Falcons are one win away from locking up the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Heading into the weekend’s games, San Francisco and Green Bay are within striking distance, but a win seals home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Of note is that should Atlanta win, it won’t play another game outside for the rest of the season, which should benefit the swift passing attack of Matt Ryan and company.
Who matters: Ryan is obviously integral to the Falcons success. The fifth-year QB was masterful in last weekend’s blowout of the New York Giants, completing 23 of 28 passes for 270 yards and three touchdowns. His 142.6 QB rating was his highest this season and was the second-best rating of Ryan’s career. The most telling stat from last weekend’s rout however, was the Falcons’ third-down conversion rate. Atlanta converted on 9 of 13 third downs in the win, after managing just three total in the prior two weeks. Ryan has ageless TE Tony Gonzalez to thank for that. Against the Giants, Gonzalez had six catches for 49 yards and a touchdown, including three catches that converted third downs and extended drives. Seventy one percent of Gonzalez’s catches this year have converted first downs, the fifth-most among starting tight ends. The Lions defense excels on third down making Gonzalez an even bigger factor. Roddy White (81 percent first down rate) and Julio Jones (71) should help combat the Lions’ excellent rate as well. Detroit allows just a 36 percent conversion rate on third-down, the seventh-best in the NFL.
Key matchups: Even though he doesn’t have the touchdowns to show for it, Calvin Johnson is having a monster year. He has 32 catches of at least 20-plus yards, nine more than any other receiver and is closing in on Jerry Rice’s single-season receiving record. Veteran cornerback Asante Samuel will likely draw the matchup as his experience should help him defend the 6-5 receiver. Last weekend, Samuel jumped an Eli Manning pass to Hakeem Nicks on the second play of the game, good for his third interception of the year. Safety Thomas DeCoud, who recorded his sixth INT of the year last weekend, has been playing at a Pro-Bowl level and should help defend Johnson over the top. The Lions’ decimated receiving corps affords the Falcons the chance at double-covering Johnson. …Falcons OL vs. Detroit’s DL. Atlanta caught a break when the Lions added DT Nick Fairley (5.5 sacks) to the injured reserve list on Wednesday, but Detroit still has tackle Ndamukong Suh (6.5 sacks) and DE Cliff Avril (9.5) available. Atlanta’s OL did a marvelous job protecting Ryan last weekend against the Giants’ vaunted front four, allowing just three quarterback hits throughout 67 offensive plays. Not only could the blocking help facilitate the passing game, but Detroit allows nearly 120 rushing yards per game and recently, the Falcons’ rushing attack has shown signs of life. Atlanta’s rushed for at least 124 yards in two of the past three games and Michael Turner’s scored touchdowns in five straight contests.
Injuries of note: Falcons safety William Moore has missed the past two games and still hadn’t practiced as of Wednesday due to a lingering hamstring injury. He adds significant tacking and blitzing ability out of the Falcons secondary, but Atlanta completely derailed New York’s passing attack without him last weekend. White didn’t practice either due to a knee injury, but he did play last weekend with the same affliction. White’s never missed a game in his career.
Inside stuff: Falcons S Chris Hope is expected to receive a fine from the NFL for his helmet-to-helmet hit last weekend against Giants WR Victor Cruz, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution. He was flagged for unnecessary roughness on the play.
“Hopefully, I won’t [be fined] but there are rules and regulations,” he said to the paper. “I’m not a dirty player. It was just a part of the game. It was a hit that I didn’t think was head-to-head, but it’s probably going to be a fine.”
Connections: Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff and Detroit coach Jim Schwarz were each on the Cleveland Browns staff under then-coach Bill Belichick in 1994. Falcons OL coach Pat Hill was also with the Browns at that time.
Stat you should know: Atlanta’s scored 51 points on their opening possessions this year, the most in the NFL. Since 2008, the Falcons have scored 224 points on their openings possessions, which leads the NFL, ahead of both New England (201) and New Orleans (199).
Second stat you should know: The Falcons are 7-1 in games decided by seven points or less this year while the Lions are 3-7 in such games this season.
Looking ahead: The Falcons host Tampa Bay in the regular season finale on Dec. 30. Should they win on Saturday, coach Mike Smith should strongly consider resting some of his players, although Atlanta will also have a first-round bye to give the team time off as well.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Lions 21
For more Falcons coverage, follow Mike Singer @CBSFalcons.
