Because of the strength of their defense is in the front seven, it has become popular to compare the 2016 version of the New York Giants to their 2007 and 2011 counterparts. While there are indeed similarities on that side of the ball, even a cursory look at the quality of the Giants' offense during those seasons compared to this one shows that the Packers have the potential to stop a Giants run in its tracks before it starts. The Giants' current offense ranks much worse in yards, scoring, and DVOA compared to those two Super Bowl outfits. If the Packers can manage to find even a moderate level of success against New York's defense on Sunday, Big Blue could be in big trouble.
- Who: New York Giants (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (10-6)
- When: Sunday, January 8, 4:40 p.m. EST (FOX)
- Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Latest Line: The Packers are 5-point favorites, according to SportsLine
Why Rodgers is the trump card
While finding success will require the contributions of many players on the Green Bay offense, none will have more of the burden on his shoulders than Aaron Rodgers. It is Rodgers who will have to stare down that pass rush -- and, if need be, avoid it by stepping up through the pocket or escaping it entirely in order to make plays from the perimeter -- and identify which of his targets will come open, and when, before delivering the ball accurately and on schedule. That, of course, is easier said than done.
The Giants finished the season with a slightly below-average overall Adjusted Sack Rate, per Football Outsiders, but their rush grew stronger as the season went along and their two primary rushers (Olivier Vernon and Jason Pierre-Paul) both ranked among the league leaders in pressures. Vernon's 86 pressures (sacks plus hits plus hurries) led the NFL, per Pro Football Focus, while Pierre-Paul's 53 ranked in the top-10 among 4-3 defensive ends. Defensive tackles Jonathan Hankins and Damon Harrison combined for 42 additional pressures and breakout star safety Landon Collins added 10 on only 40 pass-rushing snaps.
Rodgers, like most quarterbacks, sees his effectiveness wane when he's under pressure. Unlike most quarterbacks, though, Rodgers doesn't become mistake-prone under pressure so much as he becomes more careful.
Rodgers was pressured on 30.3 percent of his drop backs this season, per Pro Football Focus, and on those plays he completed only 48.4 percent of his passes at 6.7 yards per attempt. However, the completion percentage was affected significantly by the fact that he threw the ball away on 28 of his 153 pressured attempts. He was accurate with over 63 percent of his throws when faced with pressure. Not only that but Rodgers did not react to rushers in his face by getting impatient and forcing throws into tight windows -- he was intercepted only one time when under pressure, while throwing 12 touchdowns.
Rodgers is also a master escape artist. He scrambled away from pressure to take off and run with the football 43 times this season, per PFF, racking up 374 yards and four touchdowns on those plays. Rodgers also had an NFL-high 13 touchdown passes on throws outside the pocket this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
All of those skills will work to Rodgers' benefit when dealing with New York's pressure, but he'll still have to either identify the open man and find him with a pass, or alternatively, use his signature skill and "throw them open" with one of those perfectly-placed lasers we've all seen him unleash so many times.
The Packers WRs vs. the Giants secondary
That, too, will be easier said than done against New York's secondary, which was arguably the best in all of football this season.
The Giants' top two corners, Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, each allowed passer ratings of 65 or worse on throws in their direction. That's like turning every quarterback into JaMarcus Russell.
On the five occasions where the Giants used shadow coverage this season, it was Jenkins who followed one man all over the field (except in the slot); and that seems likely to be their tactic Sunday. Jenkins should be expected to track Jordy Nelson from side to side, with Rodgers-Cromartie (or Trevin Wade, who has gotten more work of late) handling him when he bumps down to the interior. Jenkins had a fair amount of success in those matchups, holding most of his charges to performances well below their typical standard.
| WEEK | OPP | WR | RTE | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | INT |
| 1 | DAL | Dez Bryant | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | CIN | A.J. Green | 26 | 5 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | CLE | Terrelle Pryor | 21 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | PIT | Antonio Brown | 36 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | DAL | Dez Bryant | 28 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| 2016 | ALL | VARIOUS | 141 | 10 | 22 | 94 | 2 | 1 |
Nelson, meanwhile, took a while to ramp up after returning from an ACL tear that kept him on the sideline for the entirety of the 2015 season, but he absolutely shredded man coverage over the final six weeks of the year, as PFF's Mike Renner detailed.
| WEEK | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | QB RTG |
| Week 1-11 | 27 | 49 | 270 | 2 | 84.6 |
| Week 12-17 | 16 | 18 | 208 | 2 | 151.8 |
We can expect to see those two locked in a bottle on the right side of the field for much of the late afternoon and early evening, with Rodgers-Cromartie, Wade, and Eli Apple (Leon Hall has played sparingly down the stretch) alternately tangling with Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and possibly Geronimo Allison, depending on how Cobb is worked back into the offense in his return from injury.
Adams has had his ups and downs both this season and throughout his career, but he clearly has Rodgers' trust and that trust has swung playoff games before. (Two years ago, he absolutely destroyed Cowboys cornerback Sterling Moore throughout the Packers' second-half demolition of the Dallas defense.) He had five catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in the teams' first meeting back in October, though it should be noted that both the Green Bay offense and the New York defense look much different three months removed from that Week 5 matchup.
Can Cook catch fire?
With the Giants defense generally being so stingy against wide receivers, Rodgers may also find himself trying to make hay with his newest toy: tight end Jared Cook. The Giants were one of the NFL's most vulnerable teams against tight ends this season, ranking 26th in Football Outsiders' DVOA on passes to tight ends. The Giants' linebackers generally struggle in coverage, and if the Packers can scheme it so that Cook matches up with one of them rather than Landon Collins, that's an advantage they should look to exploit. Cook barely did anything over the first half of the season but factored into the offense somewhat more consistently down the stretch, but he's been consistently inconsistent throughout his career. Even in a favorable matchup, there's almost no telling whether or not he'll be able to make an impact.
Considering the Giants haven't scored more than 19 points since Week 12, the Packers may not need to make all that many plays offensively in order to come away with a win. Rodgers has been on one of his best runs of late (70 percent completions, 8.7 yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns and no picks since Week 11), but the New York defense has been up to nearly every task it's been faced with this season. Whoever manages to get the better of the other seems likely to advance.