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The mantra of "defense wins championships" is coming to fruition in the 2025-26 NFL season, with the top-ranked scoring defense in the AFC and NFC winning their conference championships to meet in the 2026 Big Game. The Seattle Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 17.1 points per game, while the New England Patriots are second at 17.3 ppg allowed, heading into Patriots vs. Seahawks from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., for the Big Game 2026 on Sunday, Feb 8. Given both teams' defensive strengths, the SportsLine Projection Model expects both offenses to struggle at times to score. With that, the model is leaning Under on both sides for sports bettors looking into NFL team totals for NFL prop bets on the 2026 Big Game. Specifically, the model is backing the Seahawks Under 25.5 points and Patriots Under 20.5 points in its favorite Seahawks vs. Patriots props to target at DraftKings. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 Big Game on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Seahawks vs. Patriots team total NFL props to target at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Patriots Under 20.5 points (-130)
  • Seahawks Under 25.5 points (-115)

Combining the model's Seahawks vs. Patriots team total prop picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +200 (risk $100 to win $200).

Patriots Under 20.5 points (-130)

New England quarterback Drake Maye has the second-shortest odds to win the NFL MVP this season, but he hasn't performed like an MVP-caliber quarterback the majority of the playoffs. He's averaging 177.7 passing yards per game with four touchdowns and two interceptions over three playoff games, leading the Patriots to 18 points per game. He's faced some of the best defenses in the NFL during New England's run to the Big Game, but he's now set to face the No. 1 scoring defense in Seattle, which is allowing just 17.1 ppg. Without including two games after the Rams and Matthew Stafford's No. 1 scoring offense, the Seahawks have allowed just two touchdowns over their last six contests. Given Seattle's defensive dominance, the SportsLine model does not expect the Patriots to reach 21 points on Sunday.

Seahawks Under 25.5 points (-115)

New England's offense hasn't been great this postseason, but its defense has, which is why the Patriots are playing for the NFL championship. New England has allowed two total touchdowns in three playoff games and is surrendering 8.7 ppg this postseason. No team has even scored 17 points in a game against New England this postseason, despite two of its three opponents having top-15 offenses. Although Sam Darnold was great in the NFC Championship Game, he's still fighting off this reputation of being a quarterback that struggles in the biggest moments, and a team total of 25.5 is simply too high for the model, which projects the Seahawks to score 24 points on Sunday. Star cornerback Christian Gonzalez had an interception for New England last week, and he could challenge Darnold's top option, Jaxon-Smith Njigba.