Lions at Titans -- Week 3
Where: LP Field, Nashville, Tenn. (Grass, outdoors)
When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: Lions by 3.5
Forecast: Mostly sunny, 67 degrees at kickoff
2012 records: Lions (Overall: 1-1, NFC North: 0-0); Titans (Overall: 0-2, AFC South 0-0)
Past results: Two most recent meetings – November 27, 2008: Titans 47, Lions 10; January 2, 2005: Titans 24, Lions 19. Series record: Tennessee holds a 7-3 advantage, dating back to when the franchise was known as the Houston Oilers. Detroit is 0-3 against Tennessee since the franchise moved in 1999.
What matters: Detroit’s Week 2 loss to San Francisco served as a reality check for a Lions’ team that struggled to contain the 49ers offense, and had difficulty converting promising drives into points. That loss doesn’t make Sunday’s game against a struggling Titans team a must-win proposition, but a loss to Tennessee in a game Detroit should win would be severely damaging to the team’s playoff prospects. The Lions are the clear favorite on paper, leading the Titans this season in every positive statistical category. Games aren’t played on paper, however, and Detroit has struggled to defeat vulnerable teams on the road during Jim Schwartz’ tenure as coach.
CoachMike Munchak’s Titans haven’t met his expectations during the first two weeks of the 2012 season, but his offense has enough weapons to make Lions DC Gunther Cunningham nervous. RB Chris Johnson’s 21 rushing yards through two games has puzzled even his fiercest critics, but he still has the potential for a big game against Detroit’s hit-or-miss run defense. Titans QB Jake Locker has experienced some growing pains this season, but the fact that he has thrown an equal number of touchdowns to interceptions (2) will be mitigated somewhat Sunday by an expected increased workload for WR Kenny Britt. Britt’s added involvement will give Locker more viable options in the passing game, which could open the door for him to use his mobility to extend plays and expose Detroit’s secondary.
Whatever success Locker is able to have against a Lions’ secondary that is still recovering from early-season injury issues, it will be tough for him to beat Detroit on Sunday if QB Matthew Stafford finds the form that saw him pass for more than 5,000 yards last season. Stafford’s 63.8-percent completion rate is impressive, but his four interceptions are an accurate barometer of the dip in passing precision -- and judgment -- the Lions have seen from him this year. By his own admission, Stafford has made some poor decisions during his first two 2012 starts. If Detroit wants to remain a legitimate playoff contender this season, Stafford’s on-field leadership, game management, and production must improve.
Who matters: Detroit’s ground game should get a much-needed boost Sunday when RB Mikel Leshoure makes his NFL regular-season debut. Leshoure was impressive during his two preseason appearances, proving himself capable of both moving the pile in short-yardage situations, and breaking free for long gains. Leshoure’s potential hasn’t escaped the notice of Titans coach Mike Munchak, who paid him the compliment of calling him Detroit’s top running back despite the fact that Leshoure has yet to play a single down in the regular season. If Leshoure lives up to the expectations GM Martin Mayhew had for him on draft day in 2011, the added potency in the run game could create more favorable matchups for Lions’ receivers.
Key matchups: CBs Bill Bentley and Chris Houston vs. Titans receivers: Both Bentley and Houston are recovering from injuries that saw them ruled out of Detroit’s Week 2 loss, but they are expected to play Sunday in Nashville. The Lions’ secondary has struggled without its top two corners. Detroit has yet to intercept a pass this season, and they have allowed an average of 187 passing yards per game. Quite simply, Bentley and Houston need to stay healthy and anchor the coverage unit. If they do, the chances for a road win greatly increase. If they don’t, the Lions could see themselves in an offensive shootout they don’t want.
Lions D-line vs. Titans O-line: Detroit’s front four has seven sacks in its’ first two games, but that statistic isn’t an accurate representation of the pressure the unit has been able to place on opposing quarterbacks. The D-line was effective in Week 1, disrupting Rams’ quarterback Sam Bradford’s rhythm, and limiting RB Steven Jackson’s impact. Week 2, however, was a different story. The Lions’ D line was gashed by 49ers RB Frank Gore on several “wham” plays, and QB Alex Smith had ample time to pick the secondary apart. Detroit’s secondary is serviceable, but the D-line is the linchpin of the defense. For the Lions to win Sunday, the D-line must win the battle of the trenches.
Injuries of note: Three players missed Detroit’s open portion of Friday’s practice, but the team is healthier heading into Sunday’s game than it has been at any point this year. TE Tony Scheffler (calf) is the only Lions’ player whose absence has an impact on the game plan at this point. He didn’t practice all week, so it’s unlikely he’ll play Sunday. If that’s the case, look for Will Heller to see expanded duty in two-tight end packages. If OC Scott Linehan chooses to use a slot receiver in Scheffler’s place, it could pave the way for rookie WR Ryan Broyles to see his first meaningful action of the season.
Inside stuff: It’s not easy to track D-line personnel groupings on television, but Lions’ fans should look for the unit’s playing rotation Sunday. Detroit’s reserve D-linemen-- who many experts believe could start for several NFL teams -- have seen their role increased this season. DC Gunther Cunningham has praised the efforts of reserve DTs Nick Fairley and Sammie Hill, and his compliments are deserved in both cases. The improved play of Detroit’s second unit has allowed the Lions to substitute more freely without seeing a dip in production with reserves on the field. If the transition between starters and reserves continues to be a seamless one, it will give Cunningham the ability to run the high-energy pass-rush schemes he favors.
Connections: Sunday’s game in Nashville is a homecoming of sorts for two veteran Lions’ players, and several members of the coaching staff. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch made three Pro Bowls as a member of the Titans before the Lions signed him as a free agent in 2010. He ranks 9th in Titans team history with 38.5 sacks. Linebacker Stephen Tulloch was drafted by the Titans in 2006, and spent five seasons in Tennessee. Coach Jim Schwartz was a Titans assistant coach from 1999-2008, serving as the team’s defensive coordinator for eight of those 10 seasons. Lions DC Gunther Cunningham was Tennessee’s LB coach from 2001-2003, while Lions LB coach Matt Burke was a member of Jeff Fisher’s staff from 2004-2008. Detroit’s secondary coach Marcus Robertson spent 20 seasons in Tennessee as a player, coach, and member of the front office staff.
Stat you should know: The Lions’ kick coverage teams were an Achilles heel in 2011, but they’re quietly having one of the best starts to a season in recent memory this year. Detroit ranks second in the NFL in opponent starting field position after kickoffs, with an average drive start of the opponent’s 19-yard line. Detroit also ranks fourth in the league in average kickoff return yardage allowed, holing opposing return men to 18.3 yards per attempt. The resulting field position advantage Detroit receives has given Detroit’s potent D-line ample opportunities to disrupt the rhythm of opposing offenses.
Record watch: Calvin Johnson’s assault on the Lions’ franchise record books could continue Sunday against a struggling Titans secondary. He needs one touchdown reception to become just the second player in Lions history to catch 50 career touchdowns. If Johnson catches two or more touchdown passes Sunday, he will set a new Lions team record for career multi-touchdown games.
Looking ahead: Detroit returns home in Week 4 to face a Vikings team that has outperformed expectations so far this season. They’ll face another potent rusher in Adrian Peterson, but they should be favorites in a division game they need to win. A win Sunday, coupled with a victory over Minnesota, would send Detroit to their Week 5 bye with a respectable 3-1 record.
Prediction: Lions 24, Titans 20
Follow Lions reporter John Kreger on Twitter at @CBSLions and @JohnKreger.