Lions vs. Vikings prediction, odds, start time: Christmas Day NFL picks from advanced model

The NFL Week 17 schedule begins with a Christmas Day tripleheader, with the middle matchup seeing the Detroit Lions visiting the Minnesota Vikings. Detroit (8-7) has dropped two in a row and must now win out, plus get some help, in order to make the postseason. Minnesota (7-8) has won three in a row and is coming off a 16-13 victory over the New York Giants. The Vikings have been eliminated from postseason contention. J.J. McCarthy (hand) did not practice on Monday. Max Brosmer would be in line to start if McCarthy can't go.

Kickoff from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. The Vikings prevailed in these teams' Week 9 matchup, which ended a five-game win streak by the Detroit in the series. The latest Vikings vs. Lions odds have Detroit favored by 6 points, while the over/under for total points scored is 44.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Before making any Lions vs. Vikings picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 17 on a 52-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Vikings vs. Lions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Lions vs. Vikings:

Why the Lions can cover

Detroit is facing a must-win scenario to have any chance at the postseason, so it has the clear motivational edge over Minnesota, which has already been knocked out of playoff contention. The Lions have won five of the last six matchups, but their spread success goes back beyond that. Detroit sports a 9-1 ATS record versus Minnesota over their last 10 meetings. Additionally, there's no greater discrepancy between these teams than what's arguably the most important statistic in football, and that's turnovers. The Lions have the fewest giveaways (eight) in the NFL, while the Vikings have the most (29). See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Vikings can cover

Minnesota has found its groove as it has both outright won and covered in three straight games. The defense has been the catalyst as it had a season-high-tying of five sacks in Sunday's win over New York. Minnesota's defense also didn't allow a touchdown in that game, which came two weeks after pitching a shutout of Atlanta. The Vikings are on an amazing run of six straight games without giving up a passing score, and Justin Jefferson finally got going to help out the offense. He's coming off an 85-yard game, which is as many yards that he had over his previous four games combined and is his most yards since Week 5. His success could continue versus Detroit's No. 25 pass defense that has given up the fourth-most passing TDs. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Lions vs. Vikings picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Vikings vs. Lions 10,000 times and is going Over on the total, projecting 47 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Lions vs. Vikings, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Vikings vs. Lions spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.