Mike Tomlin leaving Steelers? All the possible 2026 outcomes for Pittsburgh and its embattled coach

In June of 2024, Art Rooney II gave Mike Tomlin a three-year extension while exuding confidence that Tomlin could get the Steelers "back to winning playoff games and championships, while continuing our tradition of success."

Flash forward to this past Sunday night, when chants rang out from Steelers fans calling for Tomlin's firing amid one of the franchise's worst home losses in recent memory. After a 4-1 start, the Steelers' recent slide -- they've lost five of their last seven games -- has led to increased frustration from fans who no longer want to hear about Tomlin and the franchise's consecutive non-losing seasons streak. The recent losses have also led to rampant speculation about Tomlin's future in Pittsburgh. 

Mike Tomlin on hot seat? Coach offers legitimate reason why Steelers fans are justified calling for his head

Bryan DeArdo

There's no denying that Tomlin has had a long and successful tenure with the Steelers that includes a Super Bowl win, another Super Bowl appearance, seven division titles and 12 playoff appearances. But it's also necessary to point out that the Steelers haven't won a playoff game in nearly nine years and have won just three playoff games since 2011. That is the main source of frustration for a fan base that desperately wants to return to its glory years. 

Where will the Steelers go from here? Is this really Tomlin's final season in Pittsburgh, or will the Steelers go on another patented run during the season's final five games that will put Tomlin's future with the franchise on the back burner? 

Most likely outcome: Tomlin remains with Steelers

While it's noisy now, Tomlin remaining in Pittsburgh next season remains the most likely outcome for several reasons. 

Let's start with the fact that the Steelers are currently tied for first place in their division and will be in sole possession of first place in the AFC North if they defeat the Ravens Sunday in Baltimore. If the Steelers win the division and the subsequent playoff berth that comes with it, you can kiss any thoughts of Tomlin and the Steelers parting ways goodbye. 

There is a good chance Tomlin will have to make changes to his coaching staff, especially on defense, as that unit has woefully underperformed so far. 

Tomlin's status for next year likely has nothing to do with whatever happens in the playoffs (if Pittsburgh makes the postseason). While Rooney wants to see the Steelers end their drought without a playoff win, it's hard to fathom him going as far as to part ways with Tomlin after yet another playoff berth. 

The most likely long-term outcome is Tomlin finishing out his contract and pursuing another opportunity after that, whether it's in coaching, broadcasting, or something else. Unless the Steelers have another deep playoff run before now and then, it's a safe bet that the two sides amicably part ways when Tomlin's contract expires after the 2027 season. 

Least likely outcome: Steelers fire Tomlin 

There's a better chance of August snowfall than the Steelers firing Tomlin. It just won't happen, unless the Steelers lose every game from here on out and finish with their worst record since 1988. But even in that scenario, the more likely outcome would be a mutual split (we'll revisit that later). 

The Steelers don't fire coaches, especially one who has added to their collection of Lombardi Trophies. There's also the fact that Tomlin still has two years left on his current contract. Unlike at some major college football programs, coaching contracts still mean something to some people, including Rooney. 

You could make a case for firing Tomlin if the Steelers' drought without a playoff run continues into 2026. But it's not a strong one, given that Pittsburgh's projected win/loss total prior to this season was set at 8.5 games. This team wasn't considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender then, and that has been reinforced through the season's first 12 games. According to the oddsmakers at FanDuel, the Steelers (-300) are favored to miss the postseason next month.

This would be a good place to point out the fact that Tomlin is coaching a team with several gaping holes, especially at receiver (why Steelers GM Omar Khan never pulled the trigger on acquiring another wideout after trading George Pickens is nothing short of baffling). While Tomlin does have a big say in personnel decisions, he ultimately is not the general manager. He can only coach the players he has available. 

Again, barring a complete collapse, the odds of you winning the lottery are better than the odds of the Steelers firing their first head coach in over 55 years. 

Other possible outcomes

Steelers and Tomlin mutually split 

This one is starting to pick up steam, especially if the Steelers don't win a playoff game, miss the playoffs altogether and/or finish with a losing record. 

Rooney gave Tomlin his most recent contract extension, hoping he could get the Steelers back to competing for Super Bowls. While he's only two years into his extension, a second consecutive season that falls well short of expectations could compel Rooney to go in a different direction. 

Rooney is likely willing to give Tomlin the end of his contract to deliver that long-awaited playoff win, but the fan base is quickly running out of patience. 

Fans typically don't drive decisions this big, but they can if money is involved. A notable number of Packers fans, for example, managed to get tickets for Green Bay's win in Pittsburgh back in Week 8. Scenes like that could become more frequent if the number of disillusioned Steelers fans continues to increase. 

More so, a second straight season that ends with a long losing skid -- Pittsburgh lost its last five games last season -- could be enough to convince Rooney that change is needed. If Tomlin also feels that it's time for a change, it's certainly possible that the two sides amicably split. 

From Tomlin's perspective, it's easy to see why he may be ready for a change. While he has said numerous times that he has the best job in football, Tomlin may nonetheless want to continue his career in a place where he will be more appreciated by the fan base. A 9-8 record with the Giants or Falcons, for example, isn't the same as going 9-8 in Pittsburgh.  

Steelers trade Tomlin 

While it doesn't happen much, NFL coaches have been traded before. In fact, Tomlin's old boss, Jon Gruden, was traded from Oakland to Tampa Bay ahead of the 2002 season. Ironically, Gruden defeated his former employer in that year's Super Bowl with Tomlin serving as his defensive backs coach. 

Steelers fans always hear that Tomlin would get another coaching job quicker than a DoorDash delivery if he ever parted ways with Pittsburgh. If that's truly the case (it undoubtedly is), then why wouldn't the Steelers try to get something in return? This would likely require Tomlin's blessing, which he may be willing to do. 

If he were traded, Tomlin would join Gruden and Bill Belichick as notable head coaches who have been dealt from one team to another. That's not bad company to be part of. In fact, being traded could elevate Tomlin's legacy if he were able to mimic the success that Gruden and Belichick had after being dealt. 

The 53-year-old Tomlin has built a Hall of Fame-worthy career during his 19 seasons in Pittsburgh. A trade would not only give him a new opportunity to make an impact elsewhere, but it would also ensure his legacy in Pittsburgh as a championship-winning coach who successfully carried on the franchise's winning tradition.