NFL conference championship games betting guide: Picks, props for Patriots vs. Broncos and Rams vs. Seahawks

It's hard to believe there are only three football games left this season -- the two incredible matchups on Sunday and the Super Bowl. Both the AFC Conference Championship and NFC Conference Championship have, somehow, dodged the massive winter storm that's about to engulf much of the southern United States and then the Northeast. 

Everyone stay safe out there and here's to hoping you're somewhere on Sunday where you can watch the football and find some winners.

NFL conference championship games picks

Broncos +4.5 vs. Patriots

Back the Broncos against the spread with the new user offer from DraftKings:

This line has steamed down over the last 24 hours or so, with the Broncos now sitting at just 4.5-point dogs after being +5 or +5.5 for most of the week. That's not everyone waking up to "Stiddy SZN" -- Jarrett Stidham is starting for the injured Bo Nix in this matchup -- but it does reflect the difficult nature of a team going on the road in a conference championship matchup and throttling an elite defense. 

And that's the thing here: yes, Stidham is a downgrade from Nix, but I'm not sure he's a 6-point downgrade, considering who is calling the plays (Sean Payton) and the offense he'll be running here (mostly horizontal, I'd imagine). Stidham just has to make a couple big throws and not make any mistakes. This is absolutely a dogfight. 

Give me an elite defense at home against a quarterback (Drake Maye) who has fumbled six times in two playoff games against an elite offensive coach scheming up a backup quarterback. 

Rams +2.5 at Seahawks

Bet on the Rams at DraftKings:

There is very little chance this line gets to Rams +3 -- if you like the +3 (and I do), you probably need to buy it now and just pay the juice. I don't hate that, considering how close the first two games between these teams have been.

Seattle's been absolutely dominant on the defensive side of the ball over the last month and really has been all season. The only team that's given them significant trouble, though, is coming to town.

The Rams have also been a thorn in Sam Darnold's side dating back to last year's playoff game when he was with the Vikings. Now he's at home with a significant oblique injury in a game where he almost certainly will be asked to throw the football more than 17 times, as he did last week. 

I've backed the Rams all season and I won't be stopping now, especially with Los Angeles catching points. 

Championship weekend NFL player props 

TreVeyon Henderson Over 8.5 carries

Take Henderson's Over at DraftKings:

Rhamondre Stevenson has the more productive rusher for the Patriots this postseason (and, really, dating back to the regular season). But even though Stevenson has been more effective and gotten more carries, Henderson's carries haven't been completely cut back by any means.

Henderson has tallied 21 carries the last two weeks, topping this number both times. He's such a threat to rip off a huge run -- there's almost no chance Mike Vrabel won't make sure he gets enough looks, as one long touchdown run is worth a lot in this matchup given how good these defenses are.

I expect the rookie to get 10+ looks here as Vrabel and Josh McDaniels attempt to generate some explosive plays against Denver. 

Rasheed Shaheed longest reception Over 14.5 yards

Back Shaheed getting loose at DraftKings:

This isn't a principle play, but it's close to it. Shaheed is one of the biggest deep ball threats in football, but his production over the last four weeks in the receiving department hasn't been, well, anything. He has way more rushing yards than receiving yards in that span and minimal targets.

But outside of the last Rams game, the Seahawks have been stifling the opposition and leaning into their strength. 

Again, this is a kitchen sink game for everyone involved and Klint Kubiak knows what a danger Shaheed can be if he gets loose down the field. I expect him to dial up a couple of deep looks on play action here against a Rams secondary that can be attacked. 

If Darnold gets hurt and Drew Lock comes in, it might be an even bigger lock. This number is just too low for his skillset.

NFL anytime touchdown scorer picks

Marvin Mims anytime TD

Back Mims to get involved at DraftKings:

With Stidham in, I expect this to be a kitchen sink game for Payton, and that should mean Mims getting involved on some trick plays. Remember, this is the coach who once onside kicked to start the second half of a Super Bowl. He won't play scared here.

I think there's a decent chance Payton sets up at least one red-zone carry and if there's any kind of big-play trickery down the field, Mims is a prime target for that. 

At 5-1, this is a very nice price for Mims to potentially find the end zone.     

Davante Adams anytime TD 

Bet on Adams to score a touchdown at DraftKings:

Adams got as low as -150 to score at one point during the regular season when he was on a touchdown bender, and now we're getting incredible value on him as a result.

Well, that plus the Seahawks' elite defense. But you can't defend everyone, and I would anticipate we see Puka Nakua, who has been a monster in the postseason, seeing more coverage shifted his way as the Seahawks look to slow down this offense. 

Adams is due for a red zone target or two and I love this inflated price based on his recent production and hamstring injury. He'll have two weeks to rest if the Rams win and months if they don't: there's no reason to not max him out here.