The Minnesota Vikings are one of only two unbeaten teams remaining in the NFC and Sam Darnold continues to exceed expectations after winning the starting quarterback job by default when first-round pick J.J. McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury. Darnold is completing 67.9% of his passes and averaging 8.4 yards per attempt while throwing eight touchdowns against only two interceptions. However, can you trust the Vikings to continue to roll in your NFL office pool picks and NFL confidence pool picks with Darnold battling a knee injury that required an MRI on Monday?
Minnesota will have its biggest matchup of the young season on Sunday against the Packers and Green Bay is favored by 2.5 at home in the NFL odds. Which side should you back in that matchup and how can you avoid any major Week 4 NFL upsets after a week in which seven underdogs won outright on Sunday? Before you make your NFL predictions, you need to see the Week 4 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Get football picks for every game from a proven NFL model
In Week 4, SportsLine's advanced computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is predicting the Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 50) beating the Washington Commanders at home. The Cardinals have lost 15 of their last 20 regular-season matchups but seven of those losses have come by a single possession. That includes both of their losses in 2024, which came against expected Super Bowl contenders Buffalo and Detroit.
Without Kyler Murray, the Commanders needed a second-half surge to beat the Cardinals 20-16 in Washington a season ago. Now the Cardinals will have the benefit of playing at home and their franchise quarterback has been solid over the first three weeks. Murray has completed 68.6% of his passes for 635 yards with five touchdowns against one interception and he's also added 161 rushing yards in three games.
Arizona ranks fourth in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage (45.5%) and eighth in red-zone touchdown percentage (66.7%) so far this season. That efficiency in high-leverage situations is a big reason why the model predicts that the Cardinals win in nearly 70% of simulations, projecting an average final score of 33-24. See all of SportsLine's Week 4 NFL predictions here.
How to make Week 4 NFL office pool picks
The model also made the call on every other Week 4 NFL game and has strong picks for potentially close NFL matchups like Ravens vs. Bills, Buccaneers vs. Eagles and Packers vs. Vikings. It's also calling for a pair upsets you won't want to miss. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.
So who should you pick in every Week 4 NFL game, and which upsets will shock the league? Visit SportsLine now to get optimal NFL office pool picks, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.