NFL line movement: Bills vs. Broncos is the closest call in Divisional Round

Lines are sharp this time of year, but great matchups can create uncertainty in the odds for the Divisional Round

By James Holliman

Jan 16, 2026 at 12:06 pm ET • 4 min read

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The Denver Broncos have the No. 1 seed and a ferocious defense, but the Buffalo Bills have quarterback Josh Allen, so when the teams collide Saturday in the NFL Divisional Playoffs, it's tough to say which will win out. The Bills opened as 1.5-point road favorites in the Bills vs. Broncos odds at DraftKings, but now they are 1.5-point underdogs. Denver had the week off as the AFC Playoffs top seed, while Allen and the Bills battled to a 27-24 road victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. These teams met in an AFC Wild Card matchup last season, when Buffalo routed the visiting Broncos 31-7. Oddsmakers aren't expecting a repeat of that, but

There has been almost no movement on the spreads for the other games, but totals have seen some changes. After Broncos vs. Bills kicks of the NFL Divisional Round on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET, the Seattle Seahawks host the San Francisco 49ers at 8 p.m. ET. It's the third matchup of the season between the NFC West rivals, and top-seeded division champ Seattle is a seven-point favorite in the 49ers vs. Seahawks odds.

On Sunday, the the Houston Texans visit the New England Patriots at 3 p.m. ET, and the hosts are favored by three points in the Texans vs. Patriots odds at DraftKings. The Chicago Bears are the only home underdog in the NFL Divisional Round, as the visiting Los Angeles Rams are 3.5-point favorites in the Bears vs. Rams matchup set for 6:30 p.m. ET. The Sunday games have the highest and lowest Over/Under points totals on the board, with Rams vs. Bears at 48.5 points and Patriots vs. Texans at 40.5.

Here, we will break down the NFL Divisional Playoffs odds and how they have been affected since lines first opened, with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bills vs. Broncos (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Open: Bills -1.5, O/U 46.5
Now: Broncos -1.5, O/U 45.5

Denver is covering in 51% of the SportsLine model's simulations. Bet the spread at DraftKings:

Allen willed the Bills to victory last week, and the reigning league MVP is dead set on finally getting to the Super Bowl. He can make the AFC Championship Game for the third time in is career with a victory, but Denver is going to make him earn it. Denver led the league, by far, with 68 sacks in the regular season, and Allen was beaten up repeatedly in last week's victory. Buffalo was initially the favorite, but Denver's top seed and home-field advantage lured public money and the Bills will be without receivers Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers. The Bills are +650 in the DraftKings Super Bowl futures odds, just ahead of Denver (+700) and behind AFC top choice New England (+600). The Seahawks (+270) and Rams (+320) are the favorites.

49ers at Seahawks (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Open: Seahawks -7, O/U 45.5
Now: Seahawks -7, O/U 44.5

The Over is hitting in 57% of the SportsLine model's simulations. Bet the total at DraftKings:

The Seahawks stifled the 49ers in their 13-3 victory in San Francisco in Week 18, outgaining them 361-173, and now they're a touchdown favorite at home. The Lumen Field crowd is intense, and the Seahawks are coming in rested to face a 49ers squad that has been clobbered by injuries all year. Tight end and inspirational presence George Kittle is the latest major casualty with a torn Achilles, so it will be Christian McCaffrey or bust for the Niners. The star running back had just 58 total yards on 14 touches in the Week 18 matchup. Oddsmakers expect such a low-scoring game, but their opinions on the outcome haven't changed.

Texans at Patriots (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET)

Open: Patriots -3, O/U 41.5
Now: Patriots -3, O/U 40.5

The SportsLine model has Houston winning 45% of the time, bringing value at plus money. Bet the Texans money line at DraftKings.

The oddsmakers and the public expect this one to be pretty low scoring, and about 80% of the handle and more than 70% of bets are coming in on the Under at DraftKings. That's because both defenses played great last week. New England sacked Justin Herbert six times, knocked him around many more and held the Chargers to 207 yards and a field goal in a 16-3 victory. The Texans allowed two field goals and just 175 yards and the defense scored twice in their their 30-6 victory against the Steelers. It also will be chilly, and there's a chance of some bad weather, depending on an approaching cold front.

Rams at Bears (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET)

Open: Rams -3.5, O/U 51.5
Now: Rams -3.5, O/U 48.5

The Over is hitting in 52% of the SportsLine model's simulations. Bet the Over at DraftKings:

The Bears needed a lot to go right in last week's game against the Packers, and it did as Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to pull off a 31-27 victory. The Rams didn't have as easy a time against the Carolina Panthers as expected, winning 34-31 as 10.5-point favorites. The defenses are nothing special, and both offenses are capable, with the Rams No. 1 in total yards and scoring in the regular season and the Bears in the top 10. The Los Angeles pass rush could be the difference, as L.A. has 47 sacks, tied for seventh-most in the NFL, and is fourth in pressures.