Patriots-Jets, Eagles-Bills among Week 17 games with biggest line movement

Only a handful of games have seen much movement as lines get sharper and motivation varies in NFL Week 17

By James Holliman

Dec 27, 2025 at 12:21 pm ET • 4 min read

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In NFL Week 17, most teams are either already eliminated from postseason contention or fighting hard for a high seed for the postseason. Because the lines get sharper as the season goes on, there hasn't been much line movement, though some quarterback questions have had an impact on totals. The New England Patriots (12-3) are determined to win the AFC's top seed and cinch the AFC East title, and they visit the flailing New York Jets on Sunday. They opened as 9.5-point favorites at DraftKings, and the line has ballooned to 13.5. The Green Bay Packers (9-5-1) are in the playoffs but have a very slim chance of winning the NFC North. They face a Baltimore Ravens (7-8) team that needs a ton of help to earn a spot in the postseason and is expected to be without Lamar Jackson. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is recovering from a concussion, so the line has only shifted by a single point at DraftKings, but the total has seen a notable drop.

The Buffalo Bills (11-4) still have an eye on the AFC East title, but it will be a challenge to get there with two games to play. They were favored by 2.5 at home against the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5), but with Philly's offensive having come to life the past couple of weeks, that has dropped to 1.5. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) are on the outside looking in, but they need to beat the Miami Dolphins (6-9) on Sunday to set up a winner-take-all rematch with the Carolina Panthers next week. The line has shifted one point in favor of Tampa Bay at some books, with the Bucs favored by 6. The NFC South-leading Panthers face a tough matchup with the NFL West-leading Seattle Seahawks (12-3) on Sunday.

Here, we will break down the games that have seen the biggest shifts since lines first opened, with all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ravens vs. Packers (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)

Open: Packers -3.5, O/U 46.5
Now: Packers -3, O/U 38.5

The quarterback situation is messy here, with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson doubtful for the Ravens and Jordan Love and Malik WiIlis both questionable for the Packers. Love is seen as unlikely to play on Saturday, which caused a line that got as high as Green Bay -4.5 to dip to the home team being favored by three.

Even with Jackson, Baltimore has lost three of their past four but beat the Bears 30-16 in Week 8 in Tyler Huntley's only start this season. Because of the uncertainty at quarterback, the total has dropped, and the SportsLine model has the Over hitting 57% of the time.

Patriots vs. Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Open: Patriots -9.5, O/U 42.5
Now: Patriots -13.5, O/U 42.5

The Pats have everything to play for here while the 3-12 Jets have nothing (except another high draft pick). New England quarterback Drake Maye is gunning for league MVP honors and has his team poised to win the AFC East for the first time since 2019, Tom Brady's final season with the team. New England beat the Jets 27-14 in Week 11 and has lost just twice to New York since 2016. Still, the SportsLine Projection model has the Jets covering in in 56% of its simulations.

Colts vs. Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Open: Jaguars -5.5, O/U 44.5
Now: Jaguars -5.5, O/U 48.5

The Jags have an outside shot at the AFC's top seed, but the Colts have a lot of work to do to even make the payoffs despite their hot start. Philip Rivers has been surprisingly effective in his unexpected return, and Trevor Lawrence threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns in a huge 34-20 victory against Denver last week, so this total has shifted. The model only has a slight lean on the Over, but the Colts cover in 52% of simulations and win outright 39% of the time, offering value at +210 on the money line.

Cardinals vs. Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)

Open: Bengals -6, O/U 51.5
Now: Bengals -7, O/U 53.5

Both teams are eliminated, but the Bengals were without quarterback Joe Burrow for 10 games. They lit up the Dolphins 45-21 last week, with Burrow throwing for 309 yards and four touchdowns. The Cardinals have lost seven straight and 12 of their past 13. They gave up at least 26 points in six of the seven recent losses. The Bengals have the worst defense in the NFL and the Cardinals aren't much better, so this is the highest total on the board for Week 17. The model has the Over hitting 59% of the time and projects close to 60 points.

Eagles vs. Bills (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Open: Bills -2.5, O/U 46.5
Now: Bills -1.5, O/U 44.5

The Bills have won the AFC East the past five seasons, but they need help to overtake New England, and they have to beat the Eagles. Philadelphia has scored 60 points in winning its past two, but those were against Las Vegas and Washington (who are 6-25 combined). Buffalo has won five of its past six, with the loss coming at Houston by four points. The Eagles have won the past three meetings, but their offensive struggles have been real and the SportsLine model has the Bills covering 54% of the time and winning outright in 56% of simulations.