NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model picking Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 26, 2024 at 6:31 pm ET • 3 min read

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The biggest favorite on the NFL schedule has lost the first three weeks of the season, which doesn't bode well for the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4. The 49ers are 10.5-point favorites over the Patriots according to the latest Week 4 NFL odds despite losing as six-point favorites against the Rams a week ago. San Francisco is without running back Christian McCaffrey, while receiver Deebo Samuel is nursing a calf injury and tight end George Kittle was a limited participant in practice this week. Should you follow the NFL trends and fade the Rams in your Week 4 NFL best bets or is this the week that a big favorite finally defies the NFL spreads? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+2.5, 42.5) cover the spread versus the Falcons. These teams are only separated by a game in the NFC South standings but the Saints have certainly looked more convincing as NFC contenders over the first three weeks. Their offense erupted in wins over the Panthers and Cowboys, and then it took a late comeback by the Eagles to knock them off in a hard-fought battle in Week 3.

Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't been able to get things going offensively and they could easily be 0-3 if not for some good fortune against the Eagles in Week 2 despite playing competitively in all three of their matchups. The Saints are 4-1 against the spread over their last five games dating back to last season while Atlanta is 1-4. That's a big reason why the model has New Orleans covering in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-1.5, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. Pittsburgh has been one of the NFL's most unlikely successes early in the season. The Steelers revamped their quarterback room by signing Russell Wilson in free agency and trading for Justin Fields, eventually naming Wilson the starter after a drawn out battle during the preseason.

However, Wilson has been nursing a calf injury early in the season and Fields has made the most of his opportunity, leading the Steelers to a 3-0 record by completing 73.3% of his passes, using his legs to extend plays and generally avoiding catastrophic mistakes. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense ranks second-to-last in the NFL in yards allowed and Anthony Richardson leads the NFL with six interceptions. That's a big reason why the model has the Steelers covering in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.