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The Los Angeles Chargers have not won a playoff game in the Justin Herbert era, losing twice with the star quarterback at the helm. They're hoping to spring a big upset on Super Wild Card Weekend in the 2026 NFL Playoffs when they head to Foxboro to face the No. 2 seed New England Patriots, who surged to the AFC East division title behind first-year head coach Mike Vrabel and second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Vrabel re-energized the defense, which ranks fourth in scoring, while Maye became an MVP candidate behind a 31-touchdown showing in the regular season.

New England ruined what appeared to be a season of destiny for the Chargers back in 2006, and Herbert and Co. are hoping to return the favor this time around. The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Chargers vs. Patriots odds at DraftKings Sportsbook and the total comes in at 46.5. We've put together a same-game parlay for this primetime clash on Sunday, Jan. 11, with recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times. For a full game forecast and more player prop recommendations, head to SportsLine.

Chargers vs. Patriots same-game parlay picks

Patriots -3.5

The home team covers this spread in 55% of model simulations, good for a "B" grade. New England is 7-3-1 ATS this season as a favorite, 4-2-1 as a home favorite and 4-4-1 as the home team. Some of that is playing a relatively favorable schedule compared to other contenders, but Maye's rise can't be dismissed. The Chargers have not been good on the road. Though they are 3-5 ATS in road games this season and 5-3 straight up, they have had some brutal showings away from SoFi Stadium highlighted by a 35-6 drubbing at the hands of the Jaguars. Add in the franchise's putrid playoff history and it's easy to back New England here.

Under 45.5

We've already talked about how Vrabel has helped this defense become elite at slowing other teams down, ranking fourth in points per game allowed despite being one of the worst red zone units in the league. The Chargers have a solid defensive unit as well, ranking fifth in yards per game allowed and ninth in points allowed per game. This is Maye's first playoff game and there's bound to be some hiccups, while Herbert's postseason struggles are well documented. The Over hits in 50% of simulations on a consensus model line of 46 but I like the Under here.

Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown

A lot of fans will point to TreVeyon Henderson being the more explosive running back but Stevenson has carved out a sizable role for himself with this offense going forward. The veteran scored six total touchdowns over the last three weeks of the season and is more likely to get red zone and goal line touches. He should be able to find paydirt in this playoff game.