NFL player props, odds, Championship Sunday best bets for QBs at DraftKings: Back Sam Darnold, fade Drake Maye

Sam Darnold's career rejuvenation began last season with the Vikings, and his 35 touchdowns in Minnesota landed him a chance to lead the Seattle Seahawks this season. Darnold has guided the Seahawks to the 2026 NFC Championship Game on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams, and it's another chance for the 28-year-old former No. 3 overall pick to prove that he was labeled a bust far too soon. Now the SportsLine Projection Model is predicting that Darnold throws for two or more passing touchdowns on Sunday and lists that play among its best NFL QB props for NFL Championship Sunday.

It's also projecting that New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye falls well short of 230.5 passing yards in the 2026 AFC Championship Game while Denver Broncos backup Jarrett Stidham goes over 31.5 pass attempts. You can combine these picks into a NFL Championship Sunday parlay that pays +486 at DraftKings. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Championship Sunday NFL QB prop picks to bet at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

• Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 230.5 passing yards (-113)
• Jarrett Stidham, Broncos, Over 31.5 pass attempts (-126)
• Sam Darnold, Seahawks, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-117)

Combining the model's three Championship Week quarterback prop picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +486 (risk $100 to win $486).

Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 230.5 passing yards (-113)

Maye has been a revelation in his second season and he's topped this number in 13 of his 19 starts this year. However, he hasn't thrown the ball more than 30 times in a month and mistake-free football will be a point of emphasis with the Broncos starting a backup quarterback. The Denver pass rush is arguably its greatest weapon with Bo Nix out, so expect fewer dropbacks in general for Maye this week and for a shorter average distance of target with the ball coming out quicker. The model predicts that Maye only throws for 206 yards on average.

Jarrett Stidham, Broncos, Over 31.5 pass attempts (-126)

The Broncos will certainly try to establish the run to keep the game out of Stidham's hands if possible, but game script probably dictates that they have no choice but to turn the backup loose. Sean Payton is also one of the league's most aggressive playcallers, with Nix attempting at least 34 passes in seven of his last eight starts before the injury despite only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt this season. The model predicts that Stidham attempts 34.6 passes on average.

Sam Darnold, Seahawks, Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-117)

Darnold has thrown for 60 touchdowns over the last two seasons while shedding the bust label and when the Seahawks and Rams met in Seattle a month ago, he threw a pair of touchdown passes in a 38-37 overtime win. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has battled injuries in its secondary down the stretch and has allowed at least two touchdown passes in six of its last eight games. Darnold only attempted 17 passes in a brutal beatdown of San Francisco last week, but expect a more aggressive passing attack on Sunday with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.