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Betting on quarterbacks is always one of the most popular playoff NFL player props, and while betting the Overs may be more fun, often during the postseason, defenses are at their best, and the best betting strategy could revolve around taking more Unders than Overs for NFL prop betting. In Sunday's Wild Card Weekend tripleheader, betting Unders is mostly where the SportsLine model finds the best value for Wild Card Weekend NFL prop betting on quarterbacks. The model sees value in backing Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence Under 235.5 passing yards and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye Under 242.5 passing yards for its Wild Card Weekend quarterback player props at DraftKings on Sunday. 

The model also sees value in a quarterback to find the end zone, backing Jalen Hurts at +120 odds at DraftKings to score. The model projects Hurts to score in more than 50% of simulations, showcasing value at plus-money odds, for Wild Card Weekend NFL QB props. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Three Sunday Wild Card Weekend NFL QB prop betting picks for Sunday at DraftKings (odds subject to change): 

  • Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, Under 235.5 passing yards
  • Jalen Hurts, Eagles, anytime touchdown scorer
  • Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 242.5 passing yards

Combining the model's three Sunday Wild Card Weekend quarterback prop picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +694 (risk $100 to win $694).

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars, Under 235.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)

Lawrence has gone Over this total in five straight games, but it wasn't always this way for him this season. The 26-year-old went Under this total in seven of his first 10 contests. Lawrence has thrown for more than 225 yards in seven straight games, but he played the Colts twice, Titans twice, Jets and Cardinals during that span, six matchups against teams that had some of the worst final two-month stretches in the NFL. On Sunday, the Jaguars play the Bills, who are seventh in the league in yards allowed, including allowing the fewest passing yards in the NFL. Buffalo has surrendered 156.9 passing yards per game this season, while ranking fourth in completion percentage (59.7%) and yards per pass (6.4) against in the league. With all this, the model projects Lawrence for 218 passing yards on Sunday.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles, anytime touchdown scorer (+120, DraftKings)

Hurts snapped his four-year streak of reaching double-digit rushing touchdowns, but he still ran for eight scores over 16 games this season, as the "Tush Push" remains a weapon and integral part of the Eagles' offense, especially near the goal line. Hurts' touchdown scoring slowed down as the season progressed, but he opened the year with a rushing touchdown in three straight games, and the model expects the Eagles to utilize Hurts' playmaking ability as much as possible in a win-or-go-home postseason environment. Hurts had at least one rushing touchdown in three of four postseason games last year, rushing for five scores total during their Super Bowl run. Hurts scores a touchdown in more than 50% of the model's simulations, displaying strong value at plus-money odds at DraftKings for Sunday.

Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 242.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)

Maye plays in his first postseason game on Sunday, so although he's had an MVP-caliber second year in the league this season, there's no guarantee the postseason pressures don't rattle him a bit. The Patriots play the Sunday Night Game in Foxborough, and a late night in January in Massachusetts is likely to bring frigid temperatures, which isn't ideal for a passing attack. Maye has gone Under this total in two of his last four games, including each of his last two games in Foxborough. The Patriots play the Chargers, who allowed the fifth-fewest yards per game this season, including the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (179.9) this year. The model projects Maye for 229 passing yards Sunday night.