Remember: You can stream the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Jaguars live right here on CBSSports.com.
In a way, this game is about the quarterbacks. Two quarterbacks, from opposite ends of the productivity spectrum, diametrically opposed in just about every way facing off in the AFC Championship Game. The last time the Jaguars were one game away from a Super Bowl, they faced the Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts, and Blake Bortles was 4 years old. Now, 21 years later, he'll be under center at Gillette Stadium trying to match wits with Tom Brady.
Luckily for Bortles, this isn't just a referendum on the quarterbacks; the Jaguars feature one of the NFL's best defenses -- a young, brash, physical group that isn't easily intimidated. And outside of Brady, Rob Gronkowski and maybe Devin McCourty, the Patriots are a mishmash players that range in abilities from replacement-level to good. Bill Belichick's ability to consistently get more out of his roster than any other coach in the league goes a long way in explaining why the Patriots are making their seventh consecutive AFC title game appearance.
Now the question becomes whether this Jaguars outfit, which combined for only 11 wins in Bortles' first three seasons, can take down the Pats ... in Foxborough ... against Brady and Belichick, who are arguably sharper now than ever.
How to Watch
Who: Jaguars vs. Patriots
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
When: Sunday, Jan. 21, 3:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Stream: CBS All Access
Which Blake Bortles will show up in Foxborough?
Heading into the 2017 season, there was little reason to expect Blake Bortles to be anything more than the not-even-close-to-replacement-level quarterback he had shown himself to be during his first three NFL seasons. In a word, the former third overall pick had been terrible.
As a rookie in 2014, Bortles ranked dead last in total value among all quarterbacks, according to Football Outsiders' metrics. He improved to 25th in total value in 2015, when he threw 35 touchdowns along with 18 interceptions and five lost fumbles. And if last season was among his most disappointing -- Bortles had 23 touchdowns, 16 interceptions and six fumbles and there were constant calls to bench him for Chad Henne -- this season has been a feel-good redemption story.
In December, rookie running back Leonard Fournette went so far as to call Bortles a "top-five quarterback," while defensive end Calais Campbell took it a few steps further.
"These last couple of games he's playing amazing," Campbell said at the time. "He looks like Brady these last couple games. I know Tom Brady does it all the time, but these last couple games, Blake was out there leading the team, playing confident and having fun."
The reality is closer to this: Bortles has gone from being a liability to something better than that. In statistical terms: After ranking among the NFL's worst quarterbacks during his first three seasons, Bortles was average in 2017. According to Football Outsiders, he was precisely replacement-level, ranking 15th in total value and 16th in value per play, just ahead of Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott.
This is a huge development, one that has benefited not only the rest of the offense, but put less pressure on the defense to pitch something close to a shutout every time they take the field. (Though, to hear this defense tell it, they welcome that sort of pressure.) In previous years, we were talking about Bortles' terrible mechanics and elongated throwing motion -- behold this popular tweet from October 2016:
And here was Bortles in the Jaguars' convincing Week 14 victory over the Seahawks:
This wasn't some meaningless completion with the game already decided; Bortles connected with Dede Westbrook on that 29-yard reception on third-and-3 with seven minutes to go in the game, only four plays after the Seahawks scored a touchdown to cut the lead to 27-17. Four plays later, the Jaguars would kick a field goal and hold on for the 30-24 victory.
This wasn't an isolated incident, either.
Here's Bortles last Sunday, in Pittsburgh, after the Steelers had cut a 21-point deficit to seven with just over four minutes to go in the game.
It's an amazing play call -- defenses rarely account for fullbacks coming out of the backfield as lead blockers because there are so many bodies between the line of scrimmage and the secondary -- and the execution is even better. First by fullback Tommy Bohanon, and then by Bortles, who throws a perfectly weighted pass. This is a quarterback playing with confidence.
And there's good reason for that confidence. It starts with a revitalized running game, which ranked 28th a season ago. The Jaguars drafted Leonard Fournette fourth overall last spring and the running game has improved to 12th.
Fournette torched the Steelers for 181 yards and two touchdowns in their Week 5 meeting and on Sunday picked up where he left off. He rumbled for 109 yards and three more scores, and even when Pittsburgh knew Fournette was coming it was helpless to do anything about it -- not once during the game was Fournette stopped without first gaining positive yardage.
The Patriots' defense might not have the athleticism of the Steelers' but they will be better disciplined in their responsibilities. Which means they will focus on stopping Fournette and forcing Bortles to beat them through the air. But here's the thing: The Pats have to first stop Fournette. Because if the running game has any success, it opens things up for the play-action pass.
In previous years, the terms "play-action pass" and "Blake Bortles" didn't instill fear in the hearts of opponents -- and chances are it still doesn't. But maybe it should. During the regular season, Bortles ranked eighth in the NFL in passer rating (106.8) when throwing out of play-action, according to Pro Football Focus. That's better than Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. Even in the wild-card matchup against the Bills, which resulted in only 13 total points and featured a underwhelming effort by Bortles, the success he did have came -- you guessed it -- in play-action situations.
Bortles doesn't have a legitimate go-to receiver but that might be less a bug than a feature in an offense that starts with the running game and leans heavily on play-action. As it turns out, the Patriots have been terrible against all manner of receivers (whether it's the No. 1, No. 2 or other wideouts, New England ranks no better than 20th at defending them). And they're worse against the run (30th overall) than the pass.
Can the NFL's best defense stop Tom Brady?
Second-year cornerback Jalen Ramsey might be our favorite player. Partly because he dominates opponents, and partly because he doesn't suffer fools well.
Here he is in early December, days before the Jaguars were set to beat up on the Seahawks, and Ramsey was asked if this would be a statement game for a Jacksonville team that was 8-4 at the time and led the AFC South.
"We were sorry last year, but we're not this year," Ramsey stated. "We ain't talking about last year. You all have to stop doing that. The media ... y'all do that too much. Y'all been hyping people up; y'all hype teams. Stop doing that. Y'all got to stop doing that. It's a new year. It's a new league -- everything. There are new big dogs around the NFL. Stop doing that. Stop hyping people up."
Ramsey isn't wrong. Either way, the Jaguars are happy to use those slights -- perceived or otherwise -- as motivation. If it sounds familiar, it should; Belichick has been employing the tactic for years.
A week ago, the Patriots' offense took advantage of favorable matchups against the Titans and ran 80 plays -- including 53 Brady passes -- and cruised to a 35-14 victory. The outcome was all but inevitable; Brady has owned defenses coordinated by Dick LeBeau:
And that was before Saturday's beatdown, in which Brady finished 35 of 53 for 337 yards with three touchdowns, no turnovers and no sacks.
That changes this week. It's hard to imagine that this Jaguars defense, which ranks No. 1 against the pass, will allow three players to have at least 79 receiving yards (Danny Amendola, 112; Rob Gronkowski, 81; Dion Lewis, 79). Instead, expect the Patriots to try to run the ball because they're not just a capable running team, they're the league's most efficient running team, according to Football Outsiders. Bonus: The Jaguars have one of the NFL's worst defenses against the run.
Belichick is a lot of things but stubborn in the face of facts isn't one of them. If the Patriots' best chance to get to the Super Bowl means limiting Brady to fewer than 25 attempts, that's exactly what will happen.
And just like Bortles, an effective running game opens things up with the play-action pass. And unlike Bortles, Brady has Gronkowski.
This brings us back to Ramsey, who is as physical a cornerback as there is in the NFL. He could be responsible for taking away Brady's favorite target.
There's also A.J. Bouye, who sports the lowest passer rating allowed of any NFL cornerback (31.6), lined up opposite Ramsey. And in front of them are two of the league's most athletic linebackers: Myles Jack and Telvin Smith, two names you might remember from Sunday.
Those two turnovers led to 14 Jacksonville points.
Then there's the Jaguars' front four, led by Calais Campbell and including Malik Jackson, Marcell Dareus and Yannick Ngakoue. You'll recognize Ngakoue as the man responsible for forcing Ben Roethlisberger to fumble in the clip above.
The point: Yes, the Patriots will be well prepared -- because they always are -- but how do you prepare for this? It's akin to other teams using a practice squad player to simulate what it's like trying to stop Gronkowski. In theory, yes, this is what you have to do to be successful. The reality, however, is something completely different.