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The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots facing off in Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium is the matchup many fans have been hoping for. It's the rematch everyone remembers -- Seattle looking for payback after that crushing Super Bowl XLIX loss, when the Patriots snatched a 28-24 victory at the last second. Both teams grinded through a tough 17-game season, and now it's all on the line in Santa Clara.

In this article, I'll walk you through the Super Bowl LX prop betting market with a practical, bettor-focused lens. I use my own custom predictive model, which focuses on schematic advantages -- mixing in advanced stats like DVOA, EPA, injury-adjusted usage rates, and postseason trends -- to spotlight bets offering real value.

The betting market is missing just how much these strong defenses will shape the game. Both the Seahawks and Patriots have top-tier defenses that can shut down traditional running attacks, forcing more passing and making certain receivers stand out while limiting what early-down running backs can do. On top of that, oddsmakers haven't fully caught up to how effective Drake Maye's rushing ability can be in critical moments or to the way Seattle's defense struggles to cover tight ends.

The early forecast calls for mild temperatures, but the real story is the field: Levi's has a reputation for unpredictable, often slick turf, especially in the evening when moisture settles in. This kind of surface actually gives the offense an edge -- ball carriers often have better traction than defenders, who have to react and change direction. For scrambling quarterbacks, this means a higher chance of slipping past defenders and picking up extra yards.

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. I've also rated each pick on my confidence meter, from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 94.5 receiving yards | Confidence: 5 out of 5

  • Market Line: 94.5 Yards (-112) 
  • Model Projection: 112.4 Yards 
  • Implied Probability: 52.8% 
  • Estimated Value (EV): +18.5%

One of the most striking findings my research has uncovered for Super Bowl LX is how the Patriots' top-tier run defense is likely to boost Smith-Njigba's target volume. Smith-Njigba's breakout 2025 campaign -- leading the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards on 119 catches -- wasn't just the product of extra playing time. The Seahawks' coaching staff deliberately made him their go-to weapon. When Seattle's run game stalls, they pivot to the passing attack and Smith-Njigba soaks up targets, commanding an eye-popping 36.2% target share and a 44.4% first-read target share.

The Patriots employ a defensive scheme that relies heavily on man coverage to disrupt timing. Smith-Njigba excels in this environment. He ranks second in the Next Gen Stats era with 3.6 yards per route run (YPRR), trailing only Tyreek Hill's historic 2023 season. His ability to separate instantly from slot corners makes him the "panic button" for quarterback Sam Darnold.

Drake Maye Over 39.5 rushing yards | Confidence: 5 out of 5

  • Market Line: 39.5 Yards (-114)
  • Model Projection: 48.0 Yards 
  • Implied Probability: 53.27% 
  • Estimated Value (EV): +24%

The Patriots' young quarterback has shown he's not afraid to run when it matters most. In the playoffs, he's relied on his legs to make big plays, and that should only become more important against the Seahawks' aggressive defense. Regular season statistics often fail to capture the "do-or-die" mentality of the playoffs. While Maye averaged a respectable rushing output during the 17-game season (450 yards on 103 attempts), his usage has spiked in the postseason. In the AFC Divisional Round against the Texans, Maye broke a 37-yard run and in the AFC Championship against the Broncos, a 28-yard scramble set up the go-ahead score. These are not anomalies; they are evidence of a quarterback willing to sacrifice his body and abandon the pocket to secure first downs.

The Seahawks boast the No. 1 pass defense DVOA. Their coverage unit, led by cornerbacks Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon, is elite at blanketing receivers. When coverage is tight, play extension becomes the quarterback's only option. Coverage sacks turn into scrambles for athletic quarterbacks. Maye, at 6-4 and 225 pounds, is difficult to bring down in the open field.

Hunter Henry Over 36.5 receiving yards | Confidence: 5 out of 5

  • Market Line: 38.5 Yards (-111) 
  • Model Projection: 52.0 Yards 
  • Implied Probability: 52.9% 
  • Estimated Value (EV): +23.8%

This is a very popular prop and for good reason. While the Seahawks' defense is historically great, every unit has an Achilles' heel. For Seattle, it is defending the tight end position. This creates a massive schematic mismatch that favors Henry. Despite ranking No. 1 in pass defense DVOA, the Seahawks rank a dismal 29th in the league against covering tight ends. This disparity is a function of their defensive scheme, which prioritizes shutting down perimeter wide receivers with elite cornerbacks (Woolen/Witherspoon) and stopping the run with aggressive linebackers. This leaves the seams and the flats -- the tight end's natural habitat -- exposed. Maye, playing in his first Super Bowl, will need a safety blanket. Henry has filled that role all season, amassing 60 receptions for 768 yards and seven touchdowns. The line of 38.5 yards is exceptionally low for a primary target in a pass-heavy game script. Two receptions down the seam could clear this total alone.

Rashid Shaheed anytime touchdown scorer +340 | Confidence: 2.5 out of 5

Shaheed is the ultimate "one-touch" scorer. In a game where New England's defense is expected to suffocate consistent drives, Seattle will rely on explosive plays to flip the field. Shaheed hauled in a 51-yard reception to open the NFC Championship Game, proving he is the designated serious threat for Darnold. With the Patriots likely focusing their safety help on Smith-Njigba underneath, Shaheed will see single coverage on the outside. He only needs one deep post or go-route to cash this ticket. At +340, the payout rewards the volatility of a deep threat.

George Holani anytime touchdown scorer +450 | Confidence: 2.5 out of 5

This is a "roster depth" play triggered by Zach Charbonnet's season-ending ACL injury in the Divisional Round. Charbonnet notched 12 touchdowns in the regular season and regularly acted as the team's goal-line "hammer." With him sidelined, second-year undrafted rookie George Holani has stepped into the RB2 role. Although Kenneth Walker III is the featured back, he has often ceded goal-line opportunities. Holani returned from IR for the NFC Championship Game and immediately saw snaps. If Seattle finds itself at the 1-yard line after a long Walker run, Holani becomes the prime candidate to vulture the touchdown and keep Walker fresh.

Hunter Henry anytime touchdown scorer +230 | Confidence: 4 out of 5

This is the most obvious mismatch in the game. The Seahawks may have the league's top defense, but they've had a tough time stopping tight ends all year, ranking near the bottom in that category. Henry is Maye's primary safety valve near the goal line. He commands a 35.5% red zone target share, which ranks second among all NFL tight ends. With Seattle's star cornerbacks taking away the outside options, Maye will have to look for Henry over the middle. At +230 odds, the betting market says Henry has about a 31% chance to score, but I think it's closer to 40% given how Seattle has struggled in this area. This is my favorite anytime TD bet of the game.

Drake Maye anytime touchdown scorer +320 | Confidence: 3 out of 5

When the Super Bowl spotlight is on, mobile quarterbacks like Maye are known for taking charge, especially when their receivers are blanketed. Maye found the end zone four times on the ground during the regular season and added another rushing score in just three playoff games. Seattle's defense loves to mix things up near the goal line, making it tough to find open targets. If the pocket collapses inside the 10, it's easy to picture Maye tucking the ball and dashing for the pylon. At better than 3-to-1 odds, taking Maye to score on the ground isn't just a smart move -- it's the kind of bet that makes every play inside the 10 must-see TV.