Week 13 is off to a chalky start after a Thanksgiving Day in which all three of the home favorites -- the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers -- emerged victorious.
With that in mind, let's take a look at how the rest of Week 13 could unwind in a more unpredictable and stunning manner with this holiday edition of our CBS Sports predictions. Feel free to enjoy with a plate full of leftovers.
Ravens hold Eagles RB Saquon Barkley to under 100 rush yards
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in carries (223), rushing yards (1,392), scrimmage yards (1,649) and scrimmage touches (25) in 2024. That has him on pace for 2,151 rushing yards and 2,548 scrimmage yards this season, both of which would both be NFL single season records.
He is coming off of a Week 12 performance in which he totaled Eagles single-game records for rushing yards (255) and scrimmage yards (302) in a victory at the Los Angeles Rams. Naturally, one would think he would go off once again in Week 13 right? Barkley also leads the NFL in yards per carry (6.2). He's an efficient, explosive, unstoppable force.
However, on the ground, the Baltimore Ravens, Barkley's Week 13 opponent, are an immovable object. The Ravens lead the NFL in yards per carry allowed (3.5) and surrender just 77.9 rushing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league trailing only the Minnesota Vikings (74.7). Nobody has rushed for more than 63 yards in a game against Baltimore this season, a figure that was accomplished by Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris in Week 11.
Yes, Barkley has performed differently than almost every running back in the NFL this season with the exception of the Ravens own Derrick Henry. It's also worth remembering the Dallas Cowboys, the league's second-worst run defense (allowing an average of 147.6 rushing yards per game) limited Barkley to 66 yards on 14 carries, an average of 4.71 yards per carry. It's improbable but not impossible to slow down Barkley. Baltimore does so on Sunday afternoon.
Chargers and Falcons have NFL's first tie game since 2022
The Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers are similar franchises in that when close games occur, weird things tend to go down, and they're typically not in each of these teams' respective favor.
So what's going to happen on Sunday when these two teams square off? It's a guarantee some sort of end of game drama will go. Each of the last three showdowns between these teams have been decided by a game-winning field goal: two as time expired in regulation and one in overtime. All three of those games were won by the Chargers.
When the 7-4 Chargers face the 6-5 Falcons in Atlanta, the NFL's first tie since 2022 will occur. There were two ties in the 2022 season: A 20-20 Week 1 tie between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans and a 20-20 Week 13 tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders. These teams are 2-8 against teams who are above .500, and they 11-1 against teams who are .500 or below. Something has to give since they both enter this game with a winning record, and the answer is nothing will give!
Los Angeles is 1-4 against teams with winning records, and they are 6-0 against the rest of the NFL. Atlanta is also 1-4 against teams with winning records while being 5-1 against the rest of the NFL.
| Chargers and Falcons This Season | Vs Teams .500 or Below | Vs Teams Above .500 |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 11-1 | 2-8 |
PPG | 28.1 | 15.0 |
Total YPG | 382.4 | 293.7 |
PPG Differential | +10.1 | -8.0 |
A tie is coming for the first time since 2022.
Chiefs secure rare win by multiple scores
The back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will play up or down to their level competition almost every week, which is what makes them both so compelling and so frustrating. Eight of their 10 wins this season have been by one score, and they have won 13 consecutive games decided by one possession, including the playoffs. That's tied for the longest streak of wins in one score games in NFL history along with the 2003-2004 Tom Brady and Bill Belichick New England Patriots, per CBS Sports Research.
This week's opponent, the Las Vegas Raiders, gave Kansas City their last home loss with 2023 fourth-round pick Aidan O'Connell starting for the Raiders. He is expected to start for the Raiders on Friday, which is bad news for Kansas City since he helped give them their last home loss on Christmas Day in 2023. Kansas City is 17-3 in their last 20 games, including the postseason, and there are only two teams who have beaten them in this span: Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills (twice) and O'Connell's Raiders on Christmas Day in 2023.
However, Kansas City won't play down to the level of the Raiders even though rookie Brock Bowers is playing like the best tight end in football as a rookie. That's because the Raiders have sunk to new levels of ineptitude. They're currently on a seven-game losing streak, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest by the Raiders since 2024. They're also last in the league in giveaways (22), takeaways (5) and turnover margin (-17), and the only team to finish an NFL season in last place in three metrics was the 2017 Cleveland Browns who went 0-16.
Yes, even the 3-8 Carolina Panthers gave the Chiefs a fight, losing 30-27 to Mahomes and Co. in Week 12. There will be no such one-possession fight from the Raiders on Friday, as shocking as that may sound.
Titans win back to back games for first time since Weeks 10 and 11 in 2022 season vs. Commanders
The Tennessee Titans have lost eight consecutive games following a win. They are looking for consecutive wins for the first time since Weeks 10 and 11 in the 2022 season.
Ending that rut certainly seems like a tall task for a Titans team off to its worst 11-game start (3-8) since 2015 when they started 2-9. However, quarterback Will Levis is unpredictable. He threw for 278 yards, two passing touchdowns, a pick-six and lost a fumble in Tennessee's 32-27 road win at the Houston Texans in Week 12 while averaging a career-high 11.6 yards per pass attempt. How improbable was that win? The 2024 Titans became the first team to win a game with eight or more sacks allowed (eight) and three or more giveaways (three) since the 2001 Jacksonville Jaguars.
However, their Week 13 opponent, the Washing Commanders, is primed to be on the receiving end of a weird loss. The Commanders lost just last week in mind-boggling fashion in a 36-24 defeat against the Dallas Cowboys: they became the first tea in NFL history to allow two kick return touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a game. Washington also employs Kliff Kingsbury as its offensive coordinator while starting rookie No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Kingsbury, an established second half of the season dropper, leading a rookie quarterback late in the season is an accident waiting to happen. It's part of the reason why Washington has lost three in a row after a 7-2 start to 2024.
Tennessee pulls out a weird victory for the second week in a row against Washington in a stunner.
Derek Carr, Saints upset Los Angeles Rams
The New Orleans Saints have won both games under interim head coach Darren Rizzi after a seven-game losing streak to run their record to 4-7.
To run their streak to 3-0 under Rizzi, they'll need to triumph as home underdogs over the visiting 5-6 Los Angeles Rams, a team with an intimidating pass rush. The Rams generate a 38.6% quarterback pressure rate as a team, the fourth-best in the NFL as well as an 8% sack rate, 11th-best in the NFL. They're a strong unit. First-round pick edge rusher Jared Verse's 49 quarterback pressures lead all rookies and rank as the eighth-most in the NFL while second-round pick edge rusher Braden Fiske's six sacks lead all rookies and are tied for 26th in the NFL.
However, New Orleans has one of the NFL's best avoiding sacks in quarterback Derek Carr: he is averaging 0.9 sacks taken per game this season, tied for the fewest in the NFL with Cowboys fill-in quarterback Cooper Rush. It also helps that Saints first-round rookie left tackle Taliese Fuaga's 7.4% quarterback pressure rate allowed is the lowest among rookie offensive tackles this season, per NFL Pro. Naturally, Carr has been one of the NFL's most efficient quarterbacks this season with the league's fifth-best passer rating (106.4). Since returning from his oblique injury in Week 9, Carr has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions. New Orleans keeps it rolling under Rizzi with another clean game from Carr.