NFL Week 14 betting power ratings: Patriots keep rising, plus how all 32 teams stack up
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 14 matchup in the NFL
The No. 1 team in our ratings lost for the second time in three weeks, with the Rams falling to the Panthers in Carolina. The previous week, the Colts betrayed our faith with an ugly game against the Chiefs, who had been No. 1 the prior week before losing to the Broncos. The cycle of No. 1 teams losing speaks to how wide open this season has felt in the NFL, with the No. 1 seeds held by two teams that combined to go 9-25 last year.
The AFC in particular has a topsy-turvy feel with the Patriots, Broncos and Jaguars at the top and the potential of having three AFC South teams in the postseason, while typical stalwarts like the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills are fighting for their lives, with only one winning record between the three as we head into December.
Several divisional races see key matchups this week, with Steelers at Ravens, Bears at Packers and Colts at Jaguars. In the latter matchup, Indy will be trying to overcome key injuries on both sides of the ball, as Daniel Jones plays through a reported fractured fibula while Sauce Gardner is recovering from a calf injury suffered on Sunday. The Jaguars have their own key players working through injury, including left tackle Walker Little, but with the game in Jacksonville and the state of the Colts, I see Liam Coen leading his team to victory to give the Jaguars control in the divisional race.
I'll have several more spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 14 power ratings
| Team | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 6 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 |
| SEA | 6 | 6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5 |
| KC | 5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 7 | 7 |
| BUF | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| GB | 4.5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| PHI | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5 |
| NE | 4 | 3.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| DET | 3.5 | 5 | 5.5 | 6 | 5.5 |
| IND | 2.5 | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | 5 |
| BAL | 2.5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| DAL | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| CHI | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| DEN | 1.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| HOU | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| SF | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| JAC | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -1.5 |
| TB | 0 | -3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| LAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.5 |
| CIN | 0 | -1.5 | -5.5 | -5 | -5 |
| PIT | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 0 |
| ARI | -2.5 | -3 | -2.5 | -2 | -1 |
| CAR | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4 | -3.5 |
| WAS | -2.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -3.5 |
| ATL | -3 | -3 | -5 | -1 | 0 |
| MIA | -3.5 | -4 | -4 | -4.5 | -5 |
| NYG | -4 | -2.5 | -3 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
| MIN | -6 | -3 | -2 | 0 | -1 |
| CLE | -6 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 |
| NO | -7 | -6.5 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -6.5 |
| LV | -7 | -6 | -5.5 | -4 | -3.5 |
| NYJ | -7.5 | -7.5 | -9 | -7.5 | -6.5 |
| TEN | -9 | -8.5 | -9 | -8 | -8 |
I had the Rams as the clear No. 1 last week, but now I've moved them back down to be even with the Seahawks. They are the teams I have the fewest questions about, though Seattle seems more likely to melt down in a big spot thanks to Sam Darnold's history. Even with him doing just that against the Rams, the Seattle defense kept the team in the game and ultimately lost by only two points. I'd love to see these two teams in the NFC Championship, though it's going to be a tough road for whichever doesn't win the division.
I've downgraded the Chiefs a bit with their offensive line injuries but I don't have a team good enough to take the No. 3 spot from them. The Bills hand an impressive win leaning on their run game, but they need to get healthy before I can trust them in a big game. The Packers are capable of beating anyone and losing to anyone. The Eagles, Lions, Ravens and Colts are coming off losses and certainly don't seem to be worthy of being labeled as top-three teams at this point.
The Patriots, Broncos and Bears keep winning, and if you're just going by what teams have done to this point then they may deserve to be top three, but the playoffs are going to be a different ball game. I've bought in the most on the Patriots with Drake Maye playing at a higher level than perhaps anyone in football. I now have the Patriots tied for sixth with the Eagles as I'd have a hard time picking a winner between those teams on a neutral field, but you can make a case for them to be as high as third as well.
The Cowboys are looking more and more dangerous coming off back-to-back wins against last year's Super Bowl teams, and they could be getting Trevon Diggs back for Thursday's game against the Lions. If they win that one as well, they officially become "the team no one wants to play in the playoffs."
I have a group of six teams that I don't want to play in any circumstance unless they're up against each other, and the Giants are making a case to be in that group as well after the sloppy loss against the Patriots. Special teams caused a 13-point swing in that game between the punt return TD, the kickoff fumble and whatever Younghoe Koo was doing on that field goal attempt.
Full Week 14 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | DET | -6 | -3 | -2.5 | My line has St. Brown out |
| IND | JAC | +3 | +1.5 | 0 | |
| CIN | BUF | -7 | -5.5 | -7 | |
| MIA | NYJ | +3 | +2.5 | +2 | |
| NO | TB | -8.5 | -8.5 | -7.5 | |
| PIT | BAL | -6.5 | -6 | -6 | |
| TEN | CLE | -3.5 | -4 | -5.5 | |
| SEA | ATL | +7.5 | +7.5 | +7 | |
| WAS | MIN | -2.5 | -1 | +1.5 | My line is +2.5 with Daniels |
| DEN | LV | +8 | +7.5 | +7 | |
| CHI | GB | -6.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | |
| LAR | ARI | +8.5 | +8.5 | +6.5 | |
| HOU | KC | -5.5 | -3.5 | -5 | KC OT issues could swing line |
| PHI | LAC | +2.5 | +2.5 | +3 | My line is +6.5 with Lance |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home-field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an auto play, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
