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Week 14 was a rough one for favorites -- the worst week for perceived "better" teams in 2025. Should Week 14's results impact which favorites or underdogs to back in Week 15? If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 15, you need to see what SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman has to say. He's put together two money line parlays for Week 15, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.

NFL three-team favorite money line parlay benefits

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a three-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL money line favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-24, NFL money line favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

In Week 14, NFL betting favorites had their worst performance in 2025, finishing with a record of 8-6. So far this season, favorites have won 141 of 207 games, for an overall success rate of 68.1%. What does this signal for Week 15? Will the favorites bounce back or will the dogs bark louder? Take a look at Jeff's top money line parlay featuring favorites.

Week 15 NFL money line favorites parlay

Philadelphia Eagles over Las Vegas Raiders

This represents an ideal bounce-back spot for the Philadelphia Eagles after their Monday Night Football loss -- a game in which they sacked Justin Herbert seven times and out-gained the Chargers by 90 yards. Despite playing overtime, Philadelphia's defense wasn't on the field excessively. The Eagles committed five turnovers, including four by Jalen Hurts. Now facing one of the league's weakest offenses in the Raiders (4.5 yards per play, ranked 30th), Philadelphia is positioned to end its losing streak decisively. Philadelphia's defense has also neutralized tight ends this season, allowing the fewest receiving yards (428) and fourth-fewest receptions (51) at the position. This effectively removes Brock Bowers, Las Vegas' primary offensive weapon, from being a game-changing factor.

Advanced metrics back how awful the Raiders have been on offense. The Raiders own a dismal -6.5% DVOA while averaging just 15.1 points per game (32nd) and 17.1 yards per point (31st). Philadelphia's +3.2% offensive DVOA creates a commanding 9.7-percentage-point advantage before even accounting for defensive disparities. The Eagles' elite pass defense (77.3 passer rating allowed, third best) should completely neutralize Las Vegas' anemic passing attack.

Compounding the Raiders' struggles, Geno Smith has been particularly ineffective in outdoor games this season, and with freezing temperatures forecast for this matchup, Las Vegas faces a perfect storm of unfavorable conditions. The Eagles are positioned to dominate both sides of the ball in this lopsided home contest. I would never use the 'L' word, but this is as close as you can get.

San Francisco 49ers over Tennessee Titans

I will get right to the point: This is as close to a certainty as sports betting provides. The Titans have the worst offensive DVOA in the entire dataset at -8.2%, while the 49ers' elite +9.1% DVOA creates a 17.3 percentage-point efficiency gap. Tennessee's third-down conversion rate (29.4%) is the lowest recorded in recent history, and its 15.5 points per game are historically anemic. Looking at total DVOA, the Titans are ranked 32nd (-32.5%) while the 49ers are ranked 11th (+8.4%). This line should be closer to -14, and the money line should be well north of -1100.

Tennessee faces its second consecutive road game while coming off a rare victory -- a classic letdown spot. Meanwhile, San Francisco gets two weeks to prepare coming off their bye. The 49ers are simply the better team --more talent, better coaching and a massive home-field edge. Kyle Shanahan will exploit Tennessee's defensive weaknesses, and the Titans don't have the firepower to keep pace. This is a strong parlay spot.

Dallas Cowboys over Minnesota Vikings

This marks the Minnesota Vikings' third road game in four weeks. Minnesota has proven to be an extremely volatile team, suffering a 26-0 shutout loss at Seattle two weeks ago before rebounding to dominate the Washington Commanders 31-0 last week. This inconsistency makes them difficult to trust in challenging road environments. Dallas has extra time to prepare and get healthy after playing last Thursday.

The Cowboys command a substantial offensive advantage anchored by elite production. Dallas leads the NFL with 275.5 passing yards per game, demonstrating consistent aerial dominance. This presents a significant matchup problem for a Vikings defense that ranks 21st in road opponent passer rating, indicating Dallas should exploit Minnesota's secondary vulnerabilities. The Vikings' aggressive approach compounds this issue -- they blitz 48% of the time (ranked first in the NFL), yet Dak Prescott thrives against pressure, ranking fourth in passer rating (101.0) when facing extra rushers. Minnesota's defensive strategy plays directly into Dallas's strengths.

Dallas dominates the all-time series 19-15 and has controlled recent matchups, winning five of the last six meetings. Most notably, the Cowboys have won three consecutive games against Minnesota, outscoring the Vikings 91-47 while covering the spread in all three contests.

NFL three-team underdog money line parlay benefits

A very popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time. Here's Jeff's three-leg money line parlay consisting exclusively of underdogs.

Week 15 NFL money line underdog parlay

Los Angeles Chargers over Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs' dynasty is coming to an end, at least for this season. They are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS in their last five games. While the Chargers capitalized on five takeaways on Monday Night Football, Jim Harbaugh's coaching performance has been exceptional. His ability to consistently win games despite fielding a severely depleted offensive line has positioned him as a legitimate NFL Coach of the Year candidate. Los Angeles hasn't won at Arrowhead since 2021, but multiple factors converge to make this their best opportunity to break that drought. The Chargers have posted an impressive 13-4 record after Week 8 over the past two seasons, demonstrating consistent late-season performance, when it matters most.

The Chargers already defeated Kansas City once this season in Brazil during Week 1. Los Angeles enters Week 15 at 9-4, a superior record to the Chiefs' 6-7. Los Angeles holds the fifth seed in the AFC playoff race, while Kansas City's chances of making the postseason have collapsed to roughly 16%, requiring them to win all four remaining games.

The pressure on Kansas City is immense, and the wear from sustained playoff runs appears to be taking its toll. The Chiefs' discipline has notably declined, with penalty frequency rising from 5.5 per game last season (tied for fifth) to 7.0 per game this year (21st). This erosion in fundamentals suggests a team struggling to maintain the focus and execution that defined their championship years. Given these converging factors, the Chargers at +180 (DraftKings) represent exceptional value in this matchup.

Cincinnati Bengals over Baltimore Ravens 

I was on the Baltimore Ravens -5.5 points last week, thinking the Steelers' defense would be exhausted after spending over 41 minutes on the field. Last week's result was unexpected, and a controversial call reversing Isaiah Likely's touchdown may have cost the Ravens. Despite this, Baltimore still had scoring opportunities. They gained 8 yards on a completion to Derrick Henry, but their crucial third-and-2 play failed, resulting in a 3-yard loss. The Ravens were never realistically positioned to cover the 5.5-point spread as the fourth quarter unfolded, but they should have secured the outright victory.

The Ravens seek redemption after the Bengals defeated them 32-14 three weeks ago as 7.5-point road underdogs. Baltimore's recent underperformance has raised concerns about team dynamics and coaching, but the Ravens remain motivated for this divisional matchup. Historically, both the Steelers and Ravens have struggled in their immediate games following their rivalry matchups, creating a profitable fade opportunity.

Cincinnati's offense is a significant threat. The Bengals rank in the top 15 for scoring and top 10 for passing yards per game, and they excel at third-down conversions. The Bengals convert third downs at 48.4%, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the Ravens' 38.6% defensive rate. The Ravens can't generate points in the red zone (30th) while the Bengals have been much more successful (17th), especially since the return of QB Joe Burrow.  

Baltimore's pass rush is a key weakness, ranking 31st in sack rate. If Cincinnati's offensive line holds, the Bengals are well-positioned to capitalize and score consistently. The market has overestimated Baltimore's defensive reputation and underestimated Cincinnati's efficiency in key situations. My betting model projects the Bengals to outscore the Ravens by 2.24 points. 

Detroit Lions over Los Angeles Rams

The Detroit Lions present compelling value as +200 underdogs at DraftKings in their upcoming matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Despite the Rams' impressive 10-3 record and position as the NFC's top seed, advanced metrics and matchup dynamics indicate Dan Campbell's Lions are well-positioned to secure a road upset. The Lions rank second in the NFL with 0.495 points per play, trailing only Seattle, while leading the league with a dominant 30.3 points per game. Detroit's +1.0 net yards per play sits just behind the Rams' +1.2, suggesting these teams are more evenly matched than the betting line indicates.

Detroit's offensive firepower under Jared Goff has proven superior in head-to-head competition. The Lions defeated the Rams 24-23 as 5.5-point favorites in the 2024 Wild Card playoff game, with Goff completing 25 of 36 passes for 241 yards and two touchdowns. Detroit also prevailed 26-20 in overtime as 5-point home favorites in Week 1 of the 2024 season.

Since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties, Detroit has operated more efficiently on offense, reducing defensive snaps and keeping the unit fresher. While the Lions are banged up in the secondary, they successfully contained the Cowboys' elite receiving threats in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

Detroit has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games, and coming off a victory, conventional wisdom suggests a letdown spot. However, the Lions' offensive firepower, proven success against this opponent, and underdog value at +200 make them an attractive play in this matchup.