NFL Week 3 picks: Cowboys stun Ravens, drop Baltimore to 0-3; Chargers shock Steelers; Saints roll past Eagles

I don't usually rush to judgment about any teams after watching them play just two games, but guys, I'll be honest, I don't think the Panthers are going to make the playoffs this year, and I'm not even completely convinced they're going to win a game this season. 

Apparently, their head coach agrees with me, because he has decided to BENCH BRYCE YOUNG in favor of Andy Dalton. That's right, the Panthers are now trying to save their season by turning to Andrew Gregory Dalton. Normally, I would laugh at the thought of that, but Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith are a combined 10-0 so far this year, so I'm not going to laugh at that or anything ever again. The way this season is going, there's a 40% chance we're going to get Dalton vs. Gardner Minshew in the Super Bowl. 

Speaking of those two, they'll actually be facing each other this week. So who will I be taking? Let's get to the picks and find out. 

NFL Week 3 Picks

Green Bay (1-1) at Tennessee (0-2)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

It's finally happening: The Malik Willis revenge game is here. Although I'm not sure we should call this a revenge game because the Titans actually did Willis a favor by trading him to a better team. This would be like if your spouse filed for divorce, but found you a Brazilian supermodel to date after the divorce was finalized.

Willis was drafted by the Titans in 2022, but only ended up starting three games for them over two seasons. The Titans ended up giving the starting QB job to Will Levis, which has been a roller coaster ride so far, but in this case, the roller coaster has no brakes, is headed for a brick wall and the seat belts don't work. 

The Titans are 0-2 this season, but they could be 2-0 if they didn't make the same exact mistakes every week. In Week 1, they blew a 17-3 lead to the Bears, and a big reason is because Levis threw arguably one of the worst pick sixes of all time. 

Yikes. 

The Titans also gave up a blocked punt in that game that the Bears returned for a touchdown. 

Surely, they learned something from Week 1 and wouldn't let those SAME EXACT THINGS happen in Week 2, right? RIGHT? Wrong. In Week 2, Levis drove the Titans down to the Jets' six-yard line and then proceeded to make another inexplicably bad mistake. 

Let's see how Titans coach Brian Callahan felt about that fumble. 

I'm not a lip-reader, but I think I definitely saw at least one F-bomb in there. 

As if that's not bad enough, the Titans also gave up ANOTHER blocked punt in Week 2. So if you're scoring at home, the Titans are literally 0-2 because Levis is responsible for two of the worst turnovers of the season and they can't protect their punter. 

If the Titans can go a week without giving up a blocked punt and if Levis can go a week without making a dumb turnover, I actually think they can win this game. The Titans defense does a pretty solid job of stopping the run and it won't be surprising if they go all in on that, which will put the game in the hands of Willis. 

Although I keep mentioning Willis, there does seem to be a small chance that Jordan Love could play on Sunday. I don't think he will, but I'll still be making two picks this week with one accounting for Love playing and the other assuming that Willis plays. And since the final score of every Titans game this season has been 24-17, I'll just go ahead and assume that will be the final score this week no matter who starts at quarterback for the Packers. 

The pick: Titans 24-17 over Packers (If Jordan Love doesn't play)
The pick: Packers 24-17 over Titans (If Jordan Love does play)

L.A. Chargers (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS) 

Out of all the games in Week 3, this one intrigues me the most, and that's mostly because I still have no idea what to make of either team. The thing about the Steelers is that I'm still not exactly sure how good they are this year. Yes. they're 2-0, but they have one of the worst offenses in the NFL and the two teams they've beaten have combined to win exactly zero games so far this year. 

On the other hand, you have the Chargers, who have gone full Jim Harbaugh (You should never go full Jim Harbaugh). Before the season started, the Chargers decided they were going to rip up last year's playbook and implement a new playbook that would call for more running and less Justin Herbert. Usually, when you have one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, you don't design an offense that calls for him to be used less, but the Chargers have done exactly that, and IT'S ACTUALLY WORKING. The Chargers rushing attack has carried them to a 2-0 record. 

There are only five teams in the NFL that are averaging less than 135 passing yards per game through two weeks and both of these teams are on that list. We might only see eight passes thrown in this entire game by both teams combined. 

One other thing these two teams have in common is that they've had two of the best defenses through the first two weeks. The Steelers are giving up just eight points per game, which ranks second in the NFL, behind only ... yup, you guessed it: The Chargers (Los Angeles is only surrendering 6.5 points per game). 

Part of me wants to predict that the final score in this game is 8 to 6.5, because if any two teams can figure out how to make that happen, it's these two. 

Both of these teams win by running the ball, but both of their defenses can stop the run, so for me, that means this comes down to the team that has the better quarterback. I have no idea who the Steelers will be throwing out there this week, but I'll take Justin Herbert no matter what. The Chargers QB has a career record of 18-0 when his defense surrenders under 20 points (19 or less), and I think we'll see that impressive streak continue on Sunday. 

The pick: Chargers 17-13 over Steelers

Philadelphia (2-0) at New Orleans (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Guys, I'm going to have to admit it, I think I might have been wrong about the Saints this year. After they beat the Panthers in Week 1, I just wasn't impressed, because it was the Panthers. Heading into Week 2, I thought they were going to get a reality check against the Cowboys, but apparently, the Saints don't do reality checks. Instead, they've created an alternate reality where they're the best team in the NFL and that's the reality we now all live in. 

Last week, I said that if Derek Carr was an actual car that he'd be a 1989 Plymouth Sundance, but it turns out he's actually closer to a McClaren and the Saints entire offense runs like a Bugatti. 

Through two weeks, the Saints are on a historical scoring pace: They've totaled 91 points, which is the fourth most in NFL history through the first two games of a season. They're also just the fifth team in NFL history to score 44 points or more in three straight games (They scored 48 in their 2023 season finale). Their offense has basically been unstoppable: They've scored on 76% of their drives this season (16 of 21), which is an absurd rate (It's the highest scoring rate by any team in the NFL since at least 2000, surpassing teams like the 2006 Colts and 2007 Patriots). 

Basically, the Saints offense is firing on all cylinders, which is something you don't usually see this early in the season. Most teams are usually still trying to work off the rust from the preseason, but in the Saints' new alternate reality that we all live, rust doesn't exist, at least not for them. 

The Saints offense has been clicking because Carr has been on fire and because Alvin Kamara has been unstoppable. When you're facing an offense like this, it's nice to have some time to prepare, but the Eagles won't have that. They have to travel to New Orleans on a short week after losing on Monday night and Philly will be bringing a defense that's surrendering nearly 400 yards per game. When your defense is that playing that badly, the Saints are the last team you want to be facing. 

The pick: Saints 34-24 over Eagles

Houston (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

I don't know what the Texans offensive game plan is going to look like this week, but I have a feeling that Stefon Diggs is going to try and make sure that he's a big part of it. Diggs started his career with the Vikings and this game will mark the first time that he's played in Minnesota as a member of the opposing team. 

Diggs was with the Vikings from 2015 thru 2019 before he forced a trade to Buffalo. He was then with the Bills from 2020 thru 2023 before he forced a trade to the Texans, and I have a feeling that if he doesn't get 20 passes thrown his way this week, he might force a trade out of Houston. 

The good news for Diggs is that he might actually be able to have a big week, and that's mostly because the Vikings defense won't be focused on him. The Vikings are going to be way more concerned with Nico Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards through two weeks with 126 yards per game (Diggs is averaging just 35 yards per game). 

Diggs wanted out of Buffalo because he apparently wasn't happy about his role in the offense, even though he led the team in targets last season. Now, he's stuck in a offense where he almost certainly won't be getting the most targets. That being said, the last time Diggs faced the Vikings came in 2022 and he caught 12 passes for 128 yards. I don't think we'll see that kind of production from him on Sunday, but he might get close, especially if he spends the entire game yelling at C.J. Stroud to throw him the ball on every play. 

As for the Vikings, after beating the 49ers in Week 2, they've proven that they can play with anyone in the league. However, they needed a blocked punt, two second-half turnovers and a 97-yard touchdown from Justin Jefferson to beat San Francisco by just six points. They're likely not going to have that many things go their way this week, so I'm going to have to take the Texans. 

The pick: Texans 24-16 over Vikings

Baltimore (0-2) at Dallas (1-1)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

It's almost fitting that the Ravens and Cowboys are playing each other this week because I'm pretty sure they had the two most shocking losses of Week 2, and the losses were shocking in very different ways. The Ravens blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter at home, which I guess isn't actually all that shocking since no one is better than the Ravens at blowing big fourth-quarter leads.

As for the Cowboys, they got run out of their own stadium in a game where their defense forgot how to play defense. The biggest problem for the Cowboys heading into Week 3 is that they've struggled to stop the run. Through two weeks, they're surrendering an average of 141.5 yards per game on the ground, and now, they have to go up against a Ravens team that LEADS the NFL in rushing (The Ravens are averaging 168 yards per game, which is impressive when you consider that no other team is even averaging 152). 

Although the Cowboys can't stop the run, the Ravens defense is also having its own issues. Through two weeks, the Ravens have given up the MOST passing yards in the NFL. Dak Prescott might throw the ball 71 times on Sunday. I have a feeling he's really going to be earning his pay check this week. 

With both defenses struggling, I think what this means is that we're going to get a good old-fashioned shootout, and as someone who loves a good old-fashioned anything, I'm fully expecting this to be the most exciting game of the week. I won't be surprised if this game comes down to a field goal, which means I'm going to take the team with the better kicker, and right now, I think Brandon Aubrey is better than Justin Tucker. 

The pick: Cowboys 30-27 over Ravens

NFL Week 3 picks: All the rest

Jets 20-17 over Patriots
Raiders 20-17 over Panthers
Browns 24-13 over Giants
Bears 19-16 over Colts
Buccaneers 23-13 over Broncos
Seahawks 27-13 over Dolphins
49ers 27-17 over Rams
Lions 30-27 over Cardinals
Chiefs 31-20 over Falcons
Bills 30-20 over Jaguars
Bengals 24-17 over Commanders

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Steelers would beat the Broncos by seven points, and guess what happened? The Steelers beat the Broncos by exactly seven points. When you have a rookie quarterback going up against a Mike Tomlin defense, the prediction almost writes itself. So how did things go for Bo Nix against the Steelers? Glad you asked. 

As you can see, Nix got sacked by T.J. Watt's shadow. I haven't seen a shadow beat up anyone like that since last month when I watched the preview for the new Sonic movie. 

Am I sucking up to my Paramount bosses by mentioning a Paramount movie? Maybe, but that's none of your business. Let's move on.  

Worst pick: My worst pick last week was every pick I made. My picks were so bad that I printed out my Week 2 picks and set them on fire so that I never have to think about them again. I went 7-8-1 against the spread, which was good compared to my horrid straight-up picks. I went 4-12 straight-up and I'm putting all the blame for that on cats. I picked three cat teams to win in Week 2 -- Bengals, Jaguars and Lions -- and they all lost by five points or less. This is why you should never pick cat teams to win. I now hate cats. 

I also blame the Giants for not dressing a healthy kicker. I picked the Giants to beat the Commanders and instead of winning, they went out and made NFL history, but not the kind of history you want to make. 

I also blame the Ravens for blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Raiders and the Patriots for missing a field goal with four minutes left to play that would have put them in a great spot to upset the Seahawks. I also blame the Colts for not being able to stop the run against a team that was starting a backup quarterback. 

I think what I'm trying to say here is that pretty much EVERY ONE-SCORE GAME WENT AGAINST ME IN WEEK 2. HOW IS THAT EVEN STATISTICALLY POSSIBLE?

Basically, I should have gone 12-4 and that's what I'm going to tell myself that I did as I cry myself to sleep tonight. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 2: 4-12
SU overall: 14-18

Against the spread in Week 2: 7-8-1
ATS overall: 12-17-3

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably out buying an Andy Dalton jersey that he'll almost certainly never wear.