Packers at Texans -- Week 6

Where: Reliant Stadium, Houston (turf, roof expected to be closed)

When: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Spread: Texans by 3.5

Records: Packers (Overall: 2-3, NFC North: 1-0); Texans (Overall: 5-0, AFC South: 2-0)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 7, 2008: Texans 24, Packers 21; Nov. 21, 2004: Packers 16, Texans 13. Series record: Tied 1-1.

What matters: The run game, the run defense and bouncing back from last week. Green Bay needs a win Sunday to get over last week’s deflating defeat at Indianapolis, when they were outscored 27-6 in the second half and lost to the emotionally charged Colts. Against the Texans, what happens on the ground could determine the winner. The Packers lost RB Cedric Benson (foot), but they seem to finally -- maybe, possibly -- learned the value of offensive balance. They have the No. 20 rushing attack going against the Texans’ ninth-ranked defensive unit, but they need to make pounding the ball a priority, so they can open up the pass. The Packers' run defense is 17th overall, allowing 114.2 yards per game. That’s almost as many as Houston star RB Arian Foster averages alone (106.4). The way to beat the Texans is to shut down the run and make them pass.

Who matters: RB Alex Green and DT B.J. Raji. With Benson out at least eight weeks, Green gets the first shot as starter and, really, the first opportunity of Green’s two-year career. Coming off a torn ACL last season, coddled most of training camp and virtually unused the first month, Green has a chance to show why the Packers made him a third-round pick in 2011. Last week, he carried 10 times, nine of which were unremarkable. But late in the fourth quarter, he busted a 41-yard run, showing burst, vision and potential. This will be a hard-grinding, high-rushing game, and the Packers will need all their big boys ready and available to slow Foster. That means Raji (6-foot-2, 337 pounds), who’s questionable (ankle) and will be a game-time decision, must be healthy enough to at least occupy some space. "We've had to prepare all week to go without B.J.," McCarthy said. “B.J. is definitely at the point in his career if he's ready to go, then we'll give him the opportunity to do that.”

Key matchups: Packers OTs vs. Texans LDE J.J. Watt and ROLB Brooks Reed. Most often, RT Bryan Bulaga will be matched up with Watt, and LT Marshall Newhouse will face Reed. Neither assignment is enviable. Watt is a physical beast (6-5, 295) and the frontrunner for NFL Defensive Player of the Year, with 7.5 sacks and eight passes knocked down. The former Wisconsin star has been terrorizing everyone, and he could give fits to Bulaga, who’s been as flimsy as paper at times this season (three sacks allowed in Week 3 loss to Seahawks). But don’t forget Reed, who made some defensive rookie of the year noise early last year, en route to a six-sack season. He forced a fumble on a sack against the Jets last week. On defense, the Packers know they have to key in on Foster to slow Houston’s offense. But don’t forget about WR Andre Johnson, who not so long ago was considered one of the best, if not the best, receiver in the game, and TE Owen Daniels. Johnson has caught 17 passes for 283 yards and two touchdowns, and Daniels, another former Badger, has 23 for 311 and three scores. The Packers have struggled mightily against elite, No. 1 receivers the past two weeks (New Orleans’ Marques Colston and Indianapolis’ Reggie Wayne) and they have typically not done well against good pass-catching tight ends.

Injuries of note: WR Greg Jennings (groin) is out as he continues to rest an injury suffered in the season opener and aggravated in Week 4. TE Jermichael Finley (shoulder) and DT Raji (ankle) are questionable, game-time decisions. McCarthy said Finley “is going to be pain tolerance (on whether he can play) because it's a pretty good injury." TE D.J. Williams, who pulled his hamstring in practice Wednesday, is questionable, as is CB Davon House, who hasn’t played and has been practicing with a brace on the shoulder he dislocated in the preseason opener.

Inside stuff: K Mason Crosby had never in his six-year career missed the only two field goals he attempted in a game until last week, when he was 0 for 2 and his 51-yard, game-tying kick against the Colts went wide right. Crosby, a career 79.1-percent kicker, could be critical Sunday at Houston, when touchdowns may be hard to come by for Green Bay. His confidence and composure must be rock-solid.

Connections: Defensive coordinator Dom Capers was the Texans’ first head coach, from 2001-2005. CB Tramon Williams entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent with the Texans in 2006 before being released at the end of the 2006 preseason. WR Donald Driver is a Houston native.

Stat you should know: According to ESPN Stats, the Packers are 6-10 since 2010, including 0-3 this year, in games when they pass two-thirds of the time. In contrast, they're 25-1, including 2-0 this season, when throwing on fewer than two-thirds of all their plays. The only loss was to the Patriots in 2001, when Matt Flynn started in place of the injured Rodgers. With Benson out, Green Bay has passed 88.1 percent of the time. That has to change Sunday against the Texans. The Packers won’t have Benson, but they must keep some run-pass balance. These numbers make that incontrovertibly clear.

Looking ahead: After Sunday, the Packers wrap up a three-game road stretch at St. Louis next week. They hope to be above .500 when they return home to face the listless Jaguars and the faltering Cardinals in Green Bay. Then, they’ll really get into the divisional meat of their schedule.

Prediction: Packers 20, Texans 17

Follow Packers reporter James Carlton on Twitter @CBSPackers and @jimmycarlton88.