Where: Mall of America Field, Metrodome, Minneapolis (turf, indoors)
When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Spread: Packers by 3.5
Records: Packers (11-4; NFC North 5-0); Vikings (9-6; NFC North 3-2)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 2, 2012: Packers 23, Vikings 14; Nov. 14, 2011: Packers 45, Vikings 7. Series record: Packers lead 54-48-1.
What matters: Clinching the No. 2 seed with a win and thus securing a first-round bye and a home playoff game. Unlike last year, the Packers have something on the line in the regular-season finale, and they’re expected to play like it. Some players are even saying they relish the opportunity to keep the Vikings, who need a win to get in, out of the postseason. With an almost-fully healthy team and the incentive of an extra week of rest and a playoff game at Lambeau Field, Green Bay should be able to match Minnesota’s urgency and emotion. Originally scheduled for a noon kickoff, the league flexed the start time to 4:25 p.m. ET, a clear indication of the game’s magnitude.
Who matters: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson eclipses Packers QB Aaron Rodgers as the most important player on the field in Sunday’s game. The Vikings go only as Peterson goes, and his astoundingly adjective-defying season has brought them to the brink of the playoffs. In these teams’ previous meeting, in Week 13, Peterson rushed for 210 yards, nearly nullifying QB Christian Ponder’s two killer interceptions and almost singlehandedly winning them the game. Several Packers, including defensive linemen B.J. Raji and Ryan Pickett, said this week it was hard to know how to do any better against AD. They said, in watching film, they kept him bottled up most of the game, but his three big runs (for 153 yards) just made them shake their heads incredulously. On Sunday, the Packers have to suppress Peterson to some degree -- like the Texans did last week in holding him to 86 yards on 25 carries -- and force the improving but still inconsistent Ponder to beat them.
Key matchup: Packers run defense vs. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, the matchup that means everything. Besides trying to carry the Vikings on his back to the playoffs, Peterson is also chasing the NFL’s all-time single-season rushing record (held by Eric Dickerson), and he needs 208 yards to break it. Green Bay knows stopping him is the sure way to beat Minnesota, but players also said this week that keeping him from breaking the record against them means something, too. The Packers should have their entire defensive line healthy and available for the first time in a long time, and getting back run-stopping DE C.J. Wilson (knee, probable), who didn’t play in Week 13, is huge. Equally or perhaps more significant is OLB Clay Matthews, who also didn’t play last time against Minnesota, and whose prodigious pass rush and underrated run defense completely changes the dynamic of the game. And don’t forget about S Morgan Burnett, the likely eighth man in the box against Peterson, who said, “You don’t want to be that team to give up a record, or give a guy 200 yards. We don’t want that. We don’t want that at all.”
Injuries of note: Veteran DB Charles Woodson (collarbone) was ruled out on Wednesday and will miss his ninth consecutive game. The Packers are expecting him to return for the playoffs, another reason they’re angling for the first-round bye. Also out is RB James Starks (knee). CB Davon House (shoulder) is doubtful after reinjuring his shoulder last week. And leading WR/primary returner Randall Cobb (ankle/knee) was limited most of the week and is listed as questionable.
Inside stuff: The Packers have allowed 46 sacks, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. The Metrodome is loud and Minnesota players like DE Jared Allen (11 sacks this year) get amped up on the noise and energy, especially against hated rival Green Bay. Since Rodgers became the quarterback in 2008, the Packers have given up 19 sacks in four games when they play at Minnesota. Of those, Allen has 8.5 and he’s salivating at the chance to tangle with LT Marshall Newhouse again. If the Vikings get an effective pass rush out of their front four and can sit back comfortably in their cover-2 defense, that could spell big trouble for Rodgers and the Packers offense.
Stat you should know: The 55 points scored by the Packers in their 55-7 win over the Titans last week were tied for the third most in a single game in franchise history. It was the highest Green Bay score since a 55-14 win over Tampa Bay in 1983. The Packers offense could be peaking at the right time, as receivers Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are finally healthy and the three-back rushing attack (Alex Green, Ryan Grant and DuJuan Harris) is gaining steam.
Record watch: Peterson leads the NFL with 1,898 rushing yards. He needs 208 against the Packers on Sunday to break Dickerson's NFL single-season record of 2,105. … With a win, the Packers would complete a 6-0 sweep of the NFC North for the second straight year, which would be the first time a team has gone undefeated in its division in back-to-back seasons since the league went to a divisional format in 1967.
Looking ahead: No matter what else happens Sunday, if the Packers win they would seize the NFC’s No. 2 seed and earn a first-round bye and a home playoff game. That’s the goal and the only thing that matters right now, said coach Mike McCarthy and Rodgers. If the Packers lose, they could meet the Vikings again next week in Green Bay.
Prediction: Packers 31, Vikings 17
Follow Packers reporter James Carlton on Twitter: @CBSPackers and @jimmycarlton88.
