| Priority No. 1 for the Packers on Saturday: Stop Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. (US Presswire) |
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers -- Wild card round
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. (grass, outdoors)
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (NBC)
Spread: Packers by 7.5
Forecast: Low 20s, partially cloudy and cool
Records: Packers (11-5, NFC North 5-1); Vikings (10-6, NFC North 4-2)
Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec 30, 2012: Vikings 37, Packers 34; Dec 2, 2012: Packers 23, Vikings 14. Series record: The Packers hold a 54-49-1 edge in the all-time series.
What matters: If the Packers want to win the wild-card round rematch and advance in the playoffs, the defense will simply have to play better than it did last week against the Vikings, when it allowed 37 points. They have to find a way to keep superhuman RB Adrian Peterson from treating Green Bay’s run defense as though he’s playing on Rookie Level in Madden, while making super-ordinary QB Christian Ponder play like, well, Christian Ponder. Last week, both killed the Packers, with Peterson gashing them for 199 yards and Ponder putting up a career-high 120.2 passer rating with three TDs. The Packers offense, healthy and hitting its stride, needs to take a lead early to make the Vikings play from behind. That would mitigate Peterson’s damage and force Ponder to make plays.
Who matters: DB Charles Woodson and OLB Clay Matthews. The Packers’ two biggest playmakers haven’t been on the field together since Woodson broke his collarbone in Week 7. But the savvy veteran has finally been cleared and is expected to play Saturday night. He’s a willing hitter in the secondary who the Packers hope will provide some semblance of physicality in their effort to slow down Peterson, who’s bulldozed through dozens of half-hearted tackle attempts from timid defensive backs. From Matthews (13 sacks), the Packers need a dominant day of consistent pass rush. Sacked just once, Ponder was simply too comfortable last week, which allowed him to resemble a competent NFL quarterback. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense ought to be successful again against a mediocre Minnesota defense.
Key matchups: Packers run defense vs. Peterson. It needs to be a total team effort against AP, who’s rushed for 409 yards and a 7.4-yard average in two games this season against the Packers. The defensive line needs to get upfield, stick its arms out and disrupt rushing lanes. The linebackers need to fill gaps and hold the edge. And the defensive backs need to gang-tackle or at least prevent Peterson from bouncing runs outside. Unless defensive coordinator Dom Capers comes up with something brilliant, it’ll be up to the players. Either through scheme or spirit, they must slow down Peterson. … Packers offensive tackles vs. Vikings defensive ends. Last week, all five of the Vikings sacks came from DEs Everson Griffen (three), Jared Allen (one) and Brian Robison (one), whose strip-sack forced Rodgers to commit the game’s lone turnover. LT Marshall Newhouse, who’s struggled against Allen throughout his career, and RT Don Barclay, an undrafted rookie who’s committed too many penalties, need to play better or get help. When Rodgers is on the ground that much, the Packers offense can’t get the job done.
Injuries of note: Rookie DE Jerel Worthy suffered a knee injury in the regular-season finale that ended his season. Undrafted rookie WR Jarrett Boykin hurt his ankle making a critical catch on fourth-and-1 in that game and is unlikely to play Saturday night. WR Randall Cobb (ankle), TE Jermichael Finley (quadriceps), WR Jordy Nelson (knee) and CB Davon House (hip) were all full participants on Thursday and should be on the field. RB James Starks has been limited (knee) and will be hard-pressed to play. CB Tramon Williams (illness) had the flu and didn’t practice Thursday. He will probably be recovered by Saturday night.
Inside stuff: Until 10 years ago, the famous frozen tundra of Lambeau was the ultimate home-field advantage. From 1961 through 2002, the Packers were 12-0 at home in the postseason under coaches like Vince Lombardi and Mike Holmgren. But since losing to Atlanta in 2003, Green Bay has been 2-4 at home in the playoffs. That’s a full decade of futility. The Packers' high-octane offense, fueled by Rodgers and his talented pass-catchers, slows down on grass and in the cold. WR Greg Jennings even said this week he’d prefer to play on turf indoors than at Lambeau Field in January. If that opinion is widely held among the playmakers, the Packers are in big trouble, because Peterson and the run-heavy Vikings will grind it on the ground all day.
Stat you should know: Rodgers has completed 78.4 percent of his passes to Cobb this season, according to ESPN Stats and Information. That’s the second-highest rate of completion for any quarterback-receiver combination in the league with at least 50 attempts. The duo was 6 of 6 in the Week 13 win over the Vikings, but Cobb sat out last week with a bad ankle. He’s said he’s “100 percent” going to play this week -- whether that includes his normal dual return duties remains to be seen -- and Rodgers needs him out there.
Bulletin board quote: Rodgers said the Packers will play better this week away from the Metrodome, which was deafening in the Vikings’ win. “(We) get to go back home and the game will be a different type of game,” Rodgers said. “They won't have the home-crowd advantage and hopefully that will make a difference."
Looking ahead: If the Packers win, they’ll play on the road against the second-seeded San Francisco 49ers. If they lose, of course, their season will be over again after just one playoff game.
Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 20
Follow Packers reporter James Carlton on Twitter: @CBSPackers and @jimmycarlton88.