Patriots defense wreaking havoc: How they kicked up their performance a notch en route to AFC title game

The AFC crown is on the line Sunday between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots (sentences from 2015), and most of the attention will be on the offenses. Will MVP candidate Drake Maye begin his ascension to the NFL's elite with a good showing against another great defense in the Broncos? How does backup QB Jarrett Stidham fare in his first extensive game reps in a long time? What will Broncos' head coach Sean Payton do to help Stidham and keep the offense afloat?

However, I think one part of this game has been underdiscussed: the Patriots' defense has turned the aggression meter up by 1000, and it's helped them turn in some very good defensive performances in the playoffs. Yes, I understand that they played probably two of the weaker offenses in the AFC, but New England's defense has put some strong stuff on tape, and completely changed its stripes from the regular season and it has it on the verge of going back to the Super Bowl.

If you want to compare their regular season and playoff splits, the Pats defense has kicked their performance up a notch. Their 1.79 Points Per Drive in the regular season was seventh in the NFL, but their 0.79 Points Per Drive in the playoffs is only behind the Seahawks for the lowest during this playoff run. They're forcing punts on more of their drives and their defensive EPA per play has jumped from 0.06 to 0.34. 

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Not too shabby for a defense that sort of took a backseat to the offense for most of the regular season. However, a couple of  numbers stand out when talking about their defensive uptick: their 40.6% blitz rate is second in the playoffs right now, and it's a massive jump from their 27.6% mark during the regular season. On top of that, when they blitz their Havoc Rate is way up to 37.5%, meaning when they bring the house bad things happen for opposing offenses. Interim defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr and head coach Mike Vrabel have leaned into their personnel, and it's completely flipped their defense.

Let's start up front, in the run game. New England has only given up 3.1 yards per carry on the ground, and they have a havoc rate of 25.2% against the run during the playoffs, second only to the Houston Texans. The Patriots aren't a gap control team in the run game; DTs Christian Barmore (315 pounds) and Milton Williams (290 pounds) lead the defensive tackles in snap counts, and in the regular season New England was struggling on the ground. Against Houston, I think it leaned into its quickness up front and it could be the key to success against the Broncos. 

They ran a lot of run stunts and games up front, changing the picture on the defensive line. Their edge rushers outside of Anfernee Jennings aren't exactly massive or edge setters in the run game, but when you design them inside moves where they can win with quickness, they cause havoc. 

This duo run gets wrecked by DT Cory Durden (#93) and EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (#44) running a game where Chaisson loops inside, and helps to force Marks back into the help on the other side of the line. Duo draws a series of double teams, with man blocking on the other side. The Pats essentially run pick and roll, and Chaisson gets into the backfield.

Here, they run it out of a five man front with EDGE Elijah Ponder darting inside off Barmore's initial move, and the result is the exact same.

Now against the pass is where we really see the aggression get turned up. 

Over the last two playoff games, they blitzed Chargers' QB Justin Herbert and Texans' QB CJ Stroud 42% and 45% respectively, and Stroud especially fared poorly. Against the blitz, Stroud went 6 of 18 for 67 yards, and despite throwing a touchdown he did throw two interceptions. 

This defensive shift was brought on through missing Williams for an extended period of time with a high ankle sprain, and outside of Williams there aren't many true winners when they rush with four. Across the regular season and playoffs, the Pats pressure rate when not blitzing is 36.4%, compared to 49.3% when they do blitz. Given their personnel and how strong they are in the secondary when healthy, New England has decided to put their trust in the cornerback trio of Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones, allowing the front to go absolutely crazy when they decide to turn up the blitz meter.

They fooled the Texans a couple of times with blitzes against their under center looks, something that I think could be effective this Sunday as well.

Against a backup QB in Jarrett Stidham who Broncos' head coach Sean Payton has said is "gonna rip it" in the AFC title game, playing the chaos game with the blitz could tilt the odds in New England's favor. The Patriots' newfound aggressiveness on the defensive side of the ball might get them caught in bad situations at times, but with the front and secondary playing in sync when they blitz, it could be the biggest reason why New England makes the Super Bowl for the first time since 2019.