Drake Maye has the immense physical talent to transform the Patriots' lackluster offense.
Is a seismic transformation guaranteed to happen? No. This is a rookie making his NFL debut here. But the possibility for change now exists with Maye as the Patriots starter. And really, the only place for New England's offense to go is up. This unit currently ranks 28th in Expected Points Added per play.
Maye has high-caliber arm talent and functional mobility to elude defenders in the pocket and run when nothing's there.
That combination led to Maye throwing for 4,321 yards with 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions as a sophomore in 2022 before a volume dip in 2023 that encouragingly featured his yards-per-attempt average increasing from 8.4 to 8.5 without the springy Josh Downs at receiver.
Nothing against Jacoby Brissett's talents -- because his arm strength is part of why he's in his ninth year in the NFL -- but Maye represents a different level of talent when cranking the RPMs on the football through a closing window or lofting the football deep down the field.
Now to the elephant in the room, New England's pass-blocking unit, a far cry from the nearly two decades with Tom Brady under center. Brissett had been pressured on 46.3% of his dropbacks through Week 5, the highest rate in the NFL. In a perfect world, the offensive line for every rookie quarterback is cohered and sturdy. That's often not the case.
Fortunately for the Patriots, a shoddy blocking unit is familiar to Maye. He was pressured 29.3% of the time -- a reasonably low number -- in his final season at North Carolina. But during his burst-on-the-scene campaign in 2022, when he tossed those 38 touchdowns at threw for more than 4,300 yards as a 20-year-old, he saw pressure 36.8% of the time, the 31st-most among 144 qualifiers. In those pressured scenarios that year, only Caleb Williams (14) threw more touchdowns than Maye's 11.
Watch here, how calmly Maye stepped into the pocket to deliver a strike to Ja'Lynn Polk in a preseason contest against the Commanders.
That looked like someone well-versed at combating pressure at the collegiate level, didn't it? That play isn't meant to suggest we should expect Maye to be completely unfazed by every sign of pressure. It's to demonstrate that he possesses the ability to act calmly against it, sometimes.
Speaking of being unfazed, watch the calmness on this laser beam of a throw to fellow rookie Javon Baker on a deep comeback in August in that same game against the Commanders.
Maybe Maye didn't need to climb the pocket there -- although that's a handy default habit for a young quarterback -- he still threw accurately and on time, with plenty of zip to Baker near the sideline with a defender in his face.
And there will probably be instances where Maye "creates" pressure, like he did to a certain degree on that play. But roughly half the time, based on Brissett's pressure rate, Maye will be reasonably well-protected, and that's when his arm and mental processing can really shine.
Here's a prime example of that combo on another completion to Baker in the preseason, this time against the Eagles. He stood stoically in the pocket, and worked through his reads as directed, before placing the football to his receiver in stride over the middle.
That's exactly how that route concept is drawn up. Looked right, and if it's not there, get to the middle of the field, where the backside dig very well could be coming open. On that play, it did, and Maye delivered.
One final element of Maye's game and skill set I feel compelled to highlight -- his aggressive play style. While I'm sure the Patriots coaching staff has repeatedly told him the importance of "taking a profit," even if it's small, on essentially every down -- especially with OC Alex Van Pelt having deep roots in the West Coast offense with short, horizontal passing at its core -- Maye is going to be tempted to push the ball vertically. It's how he's wired.
Maye's average depth of target (aDOT) was 11.0 yards in 2023, the 11th-highest among the 95 quarterbacks with at least 263 attempts in college football. His 40 completions on throws made 20-plus yards downfield trailed only Michael Penix Jr. (51) last season. He completed 43 such passes in 2022 at North Carolina.
Maye wants to launch the football downfield. While those are naturally lower-percentage throws that take longer to develop, that propensity may very well lead to a lower completion percentage than we've grown accustomed to in the NFL, and he may take more hits.
But it'll also likely yield some splash plays for a team that is currently tied for last in football in 20-plus yard pass plays (6) entering this contest against the Texans.
It probably won't happen immediately, but Maye has talent, refined skills, and the collegiate experience to prepare him for the task at hand -- injecting life in the Patriots' passing game.