Patriots vs. Texans prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL divisional round Sunday picks by proven model

Red-hot teams clash when the Houston Texans face the New England Patriots in a 2026 NFL divisional round matchup on Sunday. Fifth-seeded Houston is coming off a 30-6 win over fourth-seeded Pittsburgh 30-6 on Monday night, while second-seeded New England topped the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday in the wild-card round. The Texans (12-5), who finished second in the AFC South, are 6-3 on the road this season. The Patriots (14-3), who won the AFC East, are 7-3 on their home field in 2025-26. Houston wide receiver Nico Collins (concussion) is out. 

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is set for 3 p.m. ET. The Patriots lead the all-time series 11-4, including 2-0 in the postseason. The Patriots are 3-point favorites in the latest Texans vs. Patriots odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 40.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Before making any Patriots vs. Texans picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the divisional round of the 2026 NFL playoffs on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Texans vs. Patriots. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Patriots vs. Texans:

Why the Patriots can cover

New England is led by MVP candidate Drake Maye. The second-year quarterback completed 17 of 29 passes for 268 yards and one touchdown and one interception in the win over the Chargers. In 17 regular-season games, Maye completed 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns with just eight interceptions and a rating of 113.5. He also rushed 103 times for 450 yards (4.4 average) and four touchdowns.

His top target is wide receiver Stefon Diggs. In 17 games, he caught a team-high 85 passes for 1,013 yards (11.9 average) and four touchdowns. He had 17 explosive plays of 20 or more yards, including a long of 34, with 354 yards after the catch and 51 first-down conversions. In a 23-20 win at Buffalo on Oct. 5, he caught a season-high 10 passes for 146 yards. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Texans can cover

Houston is powered by third-year veteran quarterback C.J. Stroud. In 14 regular-season games, Stroud completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,041 yards and 19 touchdowns with eight interceptions and a 92.9 rating. He has rushed 48 times for 209 yards and one touchdown. In the Wild Card win over the Steelers, he completed 21 of 32 passes (65.6%) for 250 yards and one touchdown with one interception.

Among his top targets is veteran tight end Dalton Schultz. The eighth-year veteran had 82 receptions for 777 yards (9.5 average) and three touchdowns in 17 regular-season games. In a 40-20 win over Arizona on Dec. 14, he caught eight passes for 76 yards and a score. He had seven catches for 53 yards and one touchdown in a 36-29 win over Jacksonville on Nov. 9. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Patriots vs. Texans picks

SportsLine's model is going Over on the total, projecting 42 combined points. It also says one side of the spread is the better valie. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Texans vs. Patriots, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texans vs. Patriots spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.