Patriots vs. Broncos odds: How to bet the AFC Championship Game, what to know about betting each team
Here are the trends and angles to consider for Sunday's Mile High showdown between Denver and New England
Here we go again.
The New England Patriots and Denver Broncos -- two of the AFC's most storied franchises -- collide once again in the playoffs, this time in the AFC Championship Game with a spot in Super Bowl LX on the line.
Sunday's matchup at Empower Field in Denver will be the sixth postseason matchup between the teams, but the first since the AFC Championship Game for the 2015 season. The Broncos have won four of the previous five playoff meetings.
But Denver enters Sunday's showdown without its starting quarterback. Bo Nix, who led the Broncos to a 14-3 record in the regular season and the No. 1 seed in the AFC, suffered a broken ankle late in Denver's 33-30 overtime win over the Bills in the Divisional Round and is out for the rest of the year. Backup Jarrett Stidham will make his first start since Week 18 of the 2023 season.
The Patriots are 5.5-point road favorites over the Broncos at DraftKings.
Patriots vs. Broncos odds
- Opening spread: Patriots -4.5
- Opening money line: Patriots -250, Broncos +205
- Opening total: 40.5
The hypothetical lookahead line for this game was Denver -1.5 prior to the AFC Divisional Round, but the Nix news changed that dramatically. The early money came in on the Patriots, moving both the point spread and the money line. If the game kicks off with the Broncos as underdogs of 5.5 points or more, they would be the largest home underdog in a conference championship game since 1970.
In addition, with Denver playing its backup quarterback and the game featuring two of the top four scoring defenses in the NFL, the total suggests a low-scoring game. The total is trending to be the second lowest in a conference championship matchup since the NFC Championship Game for the 2017 season between the Eagles and Vikings closed at 39.
Broncos betting profile
- Opening win total: 9.5 wins
- W/L record: 15-3
- ATS record: 8-10
- O/U record: 8-10
The Broncos have won 14 of their last 15 straight up this season, but they've only been mediocre against-the-spread. To be fair, seven of those 10 losses ATS have come when Denver was a favorite of six points or more. (The Broncos still won each of those seven games straight-up.) Denver also is 6-4 ATS at Empower Field.
History suggests that the underdog role suits the Broncos. Denver is 3-0 straight-up as a home underdog in the playoffs since 1970. The team also has won its last four games outright as an underdog, which is the longest active streak in the NFL.
With Broncos offense missing Nix, the defense will need to play well, and it has a plus matchup against the New England pass protection. This version of Orange Crush has registered a NFL-best 71 sacks this season over the course of the regular season and playoffs. Meanwhile, the Patriots have given up 58 sacks, including a league-worst 10 in the postseason. New England quarterback Drake Maye has fumbled six times in the playoffs, which is the most fumbles by any player in the first two games of a postseason.
Patriots betting profile
- Opening win total: 7.5 wins
- W/L record: 16-3
- ATS record: 14-5
- O/U record: 12-7
New England continues to pay dividends for its bettors. After going 12-5 against-the-spread during the regular season, which was tied for the best such record in the league, the Patriots have covered both playoff games. They can become just the fifth team since 1970 to cover 15-plus games in a season.
Head coach Mike Vrabel's men are proven road warriors. New England went 8-0 straight-up on the road this season, the only NFL team to go undefeated this year on the road. The Patriots went 7-1 against-the-spread in those road games.
In addition, the Over has hit in six of New England's last seven games, and the total for Sunday's game is the lowest conference title game since the NFC Championship Game for the 2017 season.
History suggests the Broncos have an enormous problem with Stidham starting his first game of the season on Sunday. Just six quarterbacks have previously made their first start of the season in the playoffs, and only one of those (the Bills' Frank Reich in a 32-point comeback against the Oilers in the 1992 season) won the game.
Patriots-Broncos prop pick: Hunter Henry Over 43.5 receiving yards
Henry has gone Over 43.5 receiving yards in 10 of 19 games this season, including six of his last nine games. During the regular season he ranked second on the team behind only Stefon Diggs in targets (87), receptions (60) and receiving yards (768).
On Sunday, he has a favorable matchup against a Broncos defense that has struggled defending tight ends. Denver allows 59.7 yards per game to tight ends this season, which is the ninth-most in the league. In the Divisional Round matchup against Buffalo last week, the Broncos gave up 115 receiving yards and a touchdown combined to the Bills tight end tandem of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
