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The top two seeds in the AFC meet in the 2026 AFC Championship Game on Sunday when the top-seeded Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots at 3 p.m. ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado on CBS and Paramount+. The Broncos and Patriots each went 14-3 this season, and the Broncos are coming off a 33-30 overtime victory over the Bills after a first-round bye. The Patriots are coming off back-to-back postseason home victories, defeating the Chargers, 16-3, on Wild Card Weekend and the Texans, 28-16, in last week's Divisional Round. 

The biggest storyline entering this contest is unquestionably the Broncos playing without starting quarterback Bo Nix, who had season-ending ankle surgery after an injury in the victory over Buffalo. With Nix out, the Patriots are favored by 5.5 points with an over/under set at 42.5 points in the latest Broncos vs. Patriots odds at DraftKings. However, the model views the Patriots moving all the way to 5.5-point favorites as an overreaction to Nix's injury as one reason why the SportsLine Projection Model is backing the Broncos to cover as 5.5-point underdogs in its Patriots vs. Broncos best bets at DraftKings. The model is also backing Under 42.5 total points, and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye to finish Under 230.5 passing yards in its AFC Championship Game best bets at DraftKings.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the AFC and NFC Championship Games on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Top three Patriots vs. Broncos props at DraftKings on Sunday (odds subject to change):

  • Broncos +5.5 (-115) 
  • Under 42.5 total points (-112)
  • Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 230.5 passing yards (-113)

Combining the model's three Broncos vs. Patriots prop picks into an NFL parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +380 (risk $100 to win $380).

Broncos +5.5 (-115, DraftKings)

Every team is going to take a hit at the sportsbooks when their starting quarterback is out. However, the Broncos retain one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL by playing at Mile High Stadium and have one of the best defenses in the league entering Sunday. Bo Nix has been a key piece to Denver's success this season, however, he was also turnover-prone with 11 interceptions, which was tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Sean Payton is one of the best head coaches in the NFL, especially offensively, and he will develop a game plan that allows backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham opportunities to succeed. Even though Stidham has two starts in three seasons with the Broncos, he should be familiar with the system. The Broncos have the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL, and Sunday will be just the Patriots' third top-10 scoring defense they've played this season, all coming in the playoffs. The Patriots weren't favored by this many points in either of their home postseason matchups, leading the model to view this as an overreaction to Nix's injury. The model projects the Broncos to cover in 58% of simulations.

Under 42.5 total points (-112, DraftKings)

Although the model likes the Broncos to cover, there's no debating that Nix's injury will likely hinder Denver's scoring potential. However, that will likely lead them to lean on their defense, focusing on field position, which could lead the Patriots needing to put together longer drives. Given that the Broncos rank fourth in scoring defense at 18.9 points per game allowed, second in yards per play (4.5), and fifth in yards per game (287.7), this could be a challenge for New England. The Patriots also have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking third in scoring defense at 17.8 ppg allowed, seventh in yards per play (5.0) and sixth in yards per game (287.7). The model projects a defensive battle in the AFC Championship Game, with the under hitting in 57% of simulations.

Drake Maye, Patriots, Under 230.5 passing yards (-113, DraftKings)

Maye threw for just 179 yards against the Texans last week, which was the toughest defense he played all season. The Patriots have faced one of the softest schedules in recent NFL history, and to their credit, they've capitalized on that to reach the AFC Championship Game. But Denver marks just the second top-five scoring defense Maye has played this season, and he didn't have statistical success against Houston in his first top-five matchup. The Broncos rank ninth in passing yards allowed (191.6 per game) and second in yards per pass (6.2). They have the best sack rate at 10.1%, so Maye could be under pressure constantly, leading to shorter throws and a potential run-heavy game plan. Broncos corner Pat Surtain II is one of the best in the league, and he will be a player Maye needs to account for as well. The model projects Maye for 206 passing yards in what it expects to be a closer, lower-scoring contest.